Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) Understanding natural gas markets, NGLs markets, and petrochemical feedstock availability in Canada Alberta Petrochemical Development Opportunities Seminar Carlos A. Murillo Economic…
Presentation Outline About CERI Overview & Background: key information on Canadian resources Upstream: North American natural gas market dynamics affecting Canadian natural gas and NGLs production Midstream & Downstream: existing…
Canadian Energy Research Institute Overview Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, non-profit research institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental…
Overview & Background: key information on Canadian resources Image Source: Expedia Relevant Independent Objective 4 www.ceri.ca
Natural Gas in North America, Canada, and Alberta North America Canada Alberta Western Canada Eastern Canada Images from US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Canadian Centre for Energy Relevant Independent Objective…
Natural Gas Resources in Canada (Year-End (YE) 2012) Canadian remaining marketable gas resources, trillions of cubic RMGR by Region feet (tcf) Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) 861 20% Conventional (Includes Tight Gas) 604 1%…
Canadian Natural Gas (NG) Reserves and NG/NGLs Production (2013) Natural Gas Proved Reserves by Country as of Year-End (YE) 2013 Natural Gas Production by Country in 2013 (Top 10 Countries) (Top 20 Countries) (tcf), and Investment Risk…
Upstream: North American market dynamics affecting Canadian natural gas and NGLs production Image Sources: Husky and Encana Relevant Independent Objective 8 www.ceri.ca
Canadian (CAD) Natural Gas Supply/Demand (S/D) Balance 20.0 17.6 17.4 17.5 18.2 17.7 Supply by component (2013) Marketable Production by Supply: 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.4 18.0 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.5 16.6 16.8 16.3 1% Region (2013) -…
Factors Affecting WCSB Gas Production Physical Changes: Emerging supply sources (shale and tight gas), Economics: Exchange rates and commodity price movements, intra-basin (AB vs. BC), and inter-basin (CAD vs. US) gas on gas…
Changing Natural Gas Market Dynamics in North America have resulted in increasing natural gas (NG) and NGLs availability in Canada LNG project opportunities Diversify markets: LNG: Look West Opportunities to (Asia-Pacific) &…
Natural Gas Outlook: LNG Tsunami Scenario (Gas Pathways Project) Different evolving dynamics in Western and Eastern Canada 20,000 14,000 WCSB SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK Saskatchewan…
Midstream & Downstream: existing infrastructure/facilities and ongoing investments (industry expansion) Image Sources: ATCO Energy Solutions (Empress Straddle Plant), Nova Chemicals (Corunna Facility), and BP Shipping Relevant…
Canadian Midstream Infrastructure: From natural gas to NGLs to end-use markets Robust and extensive midstream and marketing infrastructure in NGLs/Products NATURAL GAS Canada targeting local and US markets Large natural gas storage…
Albertas (AB) access to natural gas, NGLs, and product markets across North America: Complex infrastructure and market connectivity Natural gas/NGLs market optionality in AB Integration with NGLs market hubs across North America…
NGLs Infrastructure and Ongoing Investments in Canada Pipeline Est. Capacity (kb/d) Product Raw Mix Pipelines to Ft. Saskatchewan (1) Increasing utilization of midstream assets resulting in large Peace HVP System (NGLs) 128 C2+/ C3+…
Canadian Petrochemical Industry Overview Capacity by region and type (kt/yr) and olefins/aromatics split (% of capacity) 9,000 92%/8% 60%/40% 0%/100% 75%/25% 8,000 6,958 7,000 6,000 1,722 5,000 4,467 kt/yr 370 4,000…
Petrochemical Industry in Canada: feedstock, derivatives, and production levels CANADA Canadian petrochemical production (2002 -2012), and 2012 split (%) From: Petrochemical Plants To: Derivative Plants 9,000 20,000 8,156 Butylene…
Petrochemical Industry in Canada: Snapshot of facilities Western Canada Eastern Canada ONTARIO ALBERTA Plant Plant Company Facility Location Main Product Capacity Feedstock Required Feedstock (kb/d) Capacity Required (kt/yr)…
Midstream Infrastructure Outlook 800 (1) NGLs gathering pipeline capacity to 754 754 754 Alberta Liquids Pipeline System (ALPS)* Peace LVP System Expansion (Phase III) 1 700 Peace LVP System Expansion (Phase II) 644 Fort…
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Export Projects Potential: Significant Infrastructure Requirements British Columbia (BC) Proposed LNG Export Projects Proposed Gas Pipelines to Support BC LNG Export Projects 19 proposed LNG export…
LNG Potential: large-scale increases in NGLs extraction One large-scale LNG-oriented scheme (1.5 - 2 bcf/d) could extract over 150 kb/d of NGLs (75% C2/C3) from the raw gas stream (Montney gas) - However, there are various options as…
Canadian NGLs S/D Balances (2002-2012) and 2012 shares 1,000 902 Total Exports 900 845 Total Energy Use 782 805 792 790 764 772 775 Total Non-Energy Use 800 740 749 Imports 700 24% 14% Statistical Adjustment 600 Stock Changes…
NGLs in Canada: Sources and End-Uses (2012) Domestic Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Crude Bitumen Production Other Supply Total UPSTREAM Total Domestic US Imports Canadian Upgrader/Off-gas plants 218 kb/d (91% C5+) Gas Plant…
Ethane Overview: Alberta S/D Balance (2002 2012) 275 257 257 C2 Shipments to ON (Cochin)* 250 252 237 230 Estimated AB Demand 222 223 224 225 213 211 Inventory Changes: Used (Built) Field Plants 175 Fractionators Straddle…
Emerging Ethane Supply Sources in Canada Incremental ethane extraction program (IEEP) projects, import pipelines, off-gases, and LNG C2 Volumes Royalty Credits Expected Onstream Commissioned Applicant Project Description (kb/d) (MM)…
Increasing Demand for Propane in North America Feedstock Competition 1 Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) Projects in North America (1) Various PDH projects have been proposed in North America to take Company Location Start-up Year Output…
Butanes & Pentanes Plus/Condensate Overview: S/D Balances (2002 2012) 160 US Exports (1) Butanes 140 Non-energy Use 123 122 SUPPLY: Production from gas plants flat. Refinery LPG 120 118 115 111 119 114 115 Statistical Adjustment…
Canadian Ethane Outlook (LNG Tsunami Scenario) 450 1 Potential BC LNG Ethane (LNG Canada) Vantage: Bakken Imports (1) Western Canada S/D 400 341 350 359 369 Off-gas Plants Supply: 325 320 316 320 322 326 350 289 292 299 285…
Additional ethane could be extracted in Western Canada 1,200 60% Ethane in Williston Basin's (ND Bakken) Gas Ethane in SK Raw Gas 1,000 935 956 50% 894 915 850 867 825 826 829 841 Ethane in BC Raw Gas 767 800 40% 685 684…
Canadian Propane Outlook (LNG Tsunami Scenario) (1) Canadian Propane S/D 400 Statistical Adjustment 344 Stock Changes Supply: 350 322 328 336 305 311 US Imports 296 297 297 302 - Gas plant production fluctuates with overall…
Evolving Propane dynamics in Canada What is required for West Coast LPG exports Western Canada Eastern Canada 120 300 Est. Transfers to Eastern Canada 140 Western Canada Propane Supply/Demand 100 Eastern Canada Propane…
Canadian Butanes Outlook (LNG Tsunami Scenario) 160 (1) Canadian Butanes S/D Statistical Adjustment 140 130 133 Stock Changes Supply: 123 122 125 128 119 118 117 119 119 121 12 118 115 119 9 115 US Imports 8 114 -…
North America and Canadian Petrochemical feedstock price advantage 1,400 AECO-C NG (/t) (1) Regional disparities in commodity prices (crude oil/NGLs/NG) has HH NG (/t) 1,200 AB ETHANE (/t) resulted in North America having some of the…
Upside and Downside Risks to the Outlook Natural Gas Supply Ethane Supply Propane & Butanes (LPG) Supply Upside Potential Downside Risks Upside Potential Downside Risks Upside Potential Downside Risks CAD LNG projects go No CAD LNG…
Summary & Highlights Canada has vast and diverse natural and NGLs resources, and the country it is consistently ranked as one of the best jurisdictions for doing business across the world Canada is one of the largest producers of…
Thank you Questions and/or Comments Please visit us at: www.ceri.ca Relevant Independent Objective 39 www.ceri.ca
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