1 Lundin Petroleum - Capital Market Day 2012 Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012
3 Agenda Introduction Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO 2011 Financial Performance Geoff Turbott, Vice President Finance and CFO Resources and Production Chris Bruijnzeels, Senior Vice President Operations Norway Alex…
4 2011 - a Transformational Year for Lundin Petroleum Exploration success in Norway Johan Sverdrup - A new giant in Norway Strong Production Growth Production at upper end of guidance - 33,200 boepd Strong Reserves Growth…
5 2012 - Continued Growth Exploration to Continue 24 exploration/appraisal wells - MUSD 460 budget Norway/South East Asia main focus Development Activity Increasing Gaupe onstream shortly Luno PDO submitted Production to…
6 2011 Financial Perfomance Capital Market Day WF11422 January 2012
7 2011 Forecast Cash Margin Netback [USD/boe] Forecast Capital Market Day 2011 Jan 11 Brent Oil Price 111.25 90.00 Revenue 104.50 80.50 Cost of Operations -8.45 -8.60 Tariffs -1.90 -1.80 Production Taxes -4.30 -4.40…
8 2011 Forecast Cost of Operations Russia, 13% 63.55 48.65 Norway, 34% 2011 Capital Market Day Tunisia, 16% 2011 Forecast 40 Indonesia, 5% Netherlands, 11% 30 30 France, 21% USD/boe USD/boe 20 20 19.10…
9 2011 Forecast Quarterly Operating Cost Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Operating Cost (USD per boe) Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Cost of Operations 7.70 8.96 8.20 8.90 8.45 Tariff and Transportation Expenses 1.98 2.28 1.67 1.65…
17 Liquidity [MUSD] at 31 December 2011 Debt Outstanding 207 Cash Balances 75 Net Debt Position 132 Availability Under Credit Facility(1) 630 (1) Loan facility MUSD 850 with reducing availability to 2014 WF11419…
18 Debt Position - Forecast End 2011 OPERATING MUSD CASH FLOW G&A MUSD 21 WORKING CAPITAL FINANCIAL MUSD 7 MUSD 139 500 MUSD 675 OPENING LOAN 1 Jan 2011 MUSD 459 400 Loan Reduction 300 MUSD 252 EXPLORATION & APPRAISAL…
19 Resources and Production Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012
20 1 January 2012 2P Reserves Gas, 16% Total 210.7 MMboe Oil, 84% PSC, 2% Russia, 16.0 France, 24.7 Tunisia, 0.3 Netherlands, 3.6 Tax/Royalty, 98% B yla Br Indonesia, 3.9 , 3. yn MMboe 2 hi ld ,1 4.3…
21 Reserves Growth 347% reserves increase in Norway No decline in French reserves 300 250 200 Russia 150 Norway MMBoe Tunisia Netherlands 100 Indonesia France 50 0 03 04 05 06 07 08…
22 Reserves Changes Produced in 2011 Net Replacement Sales/Acquisition Russia -1.1 0.5 Tunisia -0.3 Alvheim Volund Luno/Tellus Others Brynhild Norway -8.5 0.8 4.3 19.1 3.2 4.1 31.4 Netherlands -0.7 0.7 Indonesia…
23 1 January 2012 Contingent Resources Total 851 MMboe Norway Others 56.9 Russia, 110.1 Norway(1), 696.9 Indonesia, 2.1 France, 10.2 Johan Sverdrup(1) Malaysia, 31.8 640.0 WF11406 p06 11.11 (1) Includes Statoil…
24 Contingent Resource Growth More than ten times resources increase in Norway 900 800 700 600 500 MMBoe 400 Malaysia 300 Russia 200 Others 100 Norway (1) 0 1.1.2006 1.1.2007 1.1.2008 1.1.2009…
25 Reserves and Resources Increase End 2011 Reserves & Contingent Resources (1) End 2010 9% es Reserves & Contingent Resources +22nt Resourc o nt inge C +21% Reserves 446 MMboe 1062 MMboe WF11210 p7 10.11…
26 2011 Production Performance Russia, 9.4% Tunisia, 2.2% Indonesia, 3.5% Netherlands, 5.9% France, 9.2% 2011 production forecast: 33,200 boepd 40 40 Norway, 69.8% 35 35 33,200 boepd 30 30 Thousand boepd net 25…
27 2012 Production Guidance Russia, 9% 2012 production guidance: 32,000 - 38,000 boepd Tunisia, 1% Indonesia, 6% Mid range equals 5% increase from 2011 Netherlands, 6% Norway - production factors FPSO uptime France, 8% Gaupe…
28 Norway Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012
29 Norway - An Opportunity for Independents Historically controlled by majors Higher tax rates than UK Lower drill density in same geological area Opportunity for independents WF11443 p1 01.12
30 Exploration in Norway - Organic Growth Major position built through organic growth Includes 10 new licences Norway number of licences awarded in 2011 APA 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 WF11443…
31 Norway - Successful Organic Growth PRODUCTION RESERVES CONTINGENT boepd MMboe RESOURCES MMboe 697 162.2 23,300 WF11443 p3 01.12 0 0 0 2003 2011 end 2003 end 2011 end 2003 end 2011 WF11420
32 Norway - Finding Costs Finding Cost(1) (Pre Tax) 1.04 USD/boe Finding Cost(1) (Post Tax) 0.23 USD/boe (1) Exploration costs (excl. appraisal costs) since inception and WF11415 p2 01.12 up to 31.12.11 divided by…
33 Norway - 5 Key Growth Areas Barents Sea Area Greater Alvheim Area Greater Luno Area Mre Basin Area Norway Southern NCS Area Mre Basin Area Barents Sea Area Greater Alvheim Area Greater Luno Area Southern NCS…
34 Greater Alvheim Area Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012
35 Greater Alvheim Area BRUCE 0 KM 10 PL088 PL036C PEIK PL088 bs HEIMDAL LEADON BERYL ALVHEIM GEKKO VOLUND PL505BS PL150 PL150B PL203 JOTUN SKENE UK PL340 PL547S Norway BRORA PL505 GRYPHON…
36 Greater Alvheim Area Moving On 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DNO Acquisition Alvheim (WI 15%) PDO First Oil Discovery Volund PDO (WI 35%) First Oil Full Production Discovery…
37 Greater Alvheim Area - Alvheim Growth Gross Alvheim Estimated Ultimate Recovery 300 Cumulative Production 108 80 250 End of Year Reserves 49 15 PDO 200 184 189 215 223 198 196 Now MMboe 174 12 Producers 150…
38 Greater Alvheim Area .... And Volund as well Gross Volund Estimated Ultimate Recovery 60 Cumulative Production End of Year Reserves 17 50 50 50 49 50 46 6 40 38 37 PDO Now MMboe 30 3 Producers 20 4…
39 Norway - Solid Production Fuels Growth Alvheim Field Lundin Petroleum 15% Marathon 65%, ConocoPhillips 20% Norway average production 2011: 23,300 boepd Gross 2P reserves: 174 MMboe 2011 Production at 11,200 boepd net…
43 Greater Luno Area - An Exploration Success Story 0 KM 20 PL036c Alvheim Area PL203 PL505BS PL150B PL150 008 009 PL547S 0025 0026 PL340 PL505 PL340BS 0024 PL570 PL546 UK PL625 PL167 PL167B Apollo Johan…
44 Greater Luno Area - A Bit of History 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 APA License Award Luno Discovery Start Luno Appraisal PL338 Apollo Discovery (WI 50%) Tellus Discovery Luno PDO…
45 The Southern Utsira High - A Sleeping Giant 0 KM 20 Oil APA 2012 Gas PL625 APA 2010 PL546 A 4th generation exploration PL501 APA 2009 and a major oil province 45 years after the first award: PL001 in 1965 Major…
46 The Luno/Apollo Discoveries - PL338 0 KM 20 Oil Gas PL625 PL625 PL546 PL501 Lundin Petroleum 50% (operator) Partners: RWE Dea 20%, Wintershall 30% Tellus Luno/Tellus discoveries: Apollo Gross reserves: 186 MMboe…
47 NW to SE Line Over the Southern Utsira High NW 16/1-14 16/1-8 16/2-5 16/2-6 SE 0.600 0.700 0.800 0.900 1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 Johan Sverdrup Discovery 1.400 Ragnarrock Discovery 1.500 1.600 Luno Discovery Chalk…
48 Johan Sverdrup - A New Giant in Norway PL546 PL501 Johan Sverdrup PL501 (40% operator) Avaldsnes Discovery 2010 (16/2-6) 1st appraisal (16/3-4) & sidetrack completed 16/2-9S 2nd appraisal (16/2-7) & sidetrack completed…
49 Johan Sverdrup - A World Class Reservoir Excellent reservoir quality High porosity & permeability sands Normal pressure & temperature Easily producible oil Oil dripping out of the cores 2 full scale production tests…
50 Latest Appraisal Well (16/5-2 S) Results Good upper Jurassic reservoir encountered Deeper than expected Same hydrocarbon system WF11424 p1 01.12
51 Johan Sverdrup PL501 - Depth Conversion Chalk isochore map Depth Conversion 16/5-2 S is located on edge of thick Has been acurate on massive chalk prognosis in previous wells Depth shift experienced requires investigation…
52 2012 Appraisal Programme Appraisal 4 (16/2-11) 2.5 km SE from the Johan Sverdrup (PL265) discovery well Possible geological barriers Provide a further data point / Smaller faults for Draupne sandstone Deeper OWC (proven…
53 Johan Sverdrup Further Appraisal Programme Luno Johan Sverdrup PL501 & PL265 will be developed as one field Pre-Unit Agreement 16/2-9S Aldous Major North Discovery discussions ongoing PL338 PL265 16/2-10 (1st appr.)…
54 2012 Further Appraisal - Apollo Apollo extension NOOR 16/1-15 Apollo discovery Luno/Tellus Luno South discovery NOOR 16/1-15 Lundin (50%) PL338 PL265 0016 PL359 0015 Lundin Petroleum Operator 0 KM 8 Lundin…
56 Greater Luno Area Prospectivity WF11438 p1 01.12
57 Luno II Prospect - PL359 2012 Exploration Drilling Johan Sverdrup discovery PL359 (Lundin 40% operated) Luno II prospect N Avaldsnes play type Luno discovery So Reservoir: Upper Jurassic ut he Gross unrisked prospective…
58 East-West Trending Line Across Luno II A Luno II Luno II A -1600 Top Reservoir -1700 Top Chalk -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 Base Jurassic WF11426 p1 01.12 -2300 A A
60 Jorvik Prospect - PL338 2012 Exploration Drilling PL338 (Lundin 50% operated) Jorvik prospect Gross unrisked prospective resource: 46 MMboe Tellus Luno extension towards the east Jorvik Drilling: 4Q 2012 0 4 KM 16…
61 Additional Prospectivity in Greater Luno Area 0 2 KM 8 Kopervik Kopervik prospect PL625 Lundin Petroleum interest: 40% (operator) PL167B PL546 PL501 New 2011 APA award PL167 Aldous Major North discovery Apollo…
62 Greater Luno Area - Luno Development 0 KM 20 PL036c Lundin Petroleum interest: 50% (operator) Alvheim Area Wintershall 30%, RWE Dea 20% PL203 PL505BS PL150B PL150 008 009 PL547S Development Plan submitted 0025 0026…
63 Greater Luno Area - Luno Development Luno Development Water Injectors Oil Producers 11 producers 4 water injectors Luno N WF11115 p6 04.11
64 Luno Development Project Execution starting Jan 2012 Production startup Oct 2015 Capital costs: 24 NOK billion Drilling 15 wells from jack-up rig 11 producers and 4 water injectors Contract award to Rowan companies…
65 Greater Luno Area - Luno Development Draupne/Luno coordinated development under negotiation Hanz Grane to Sture 13km Draupne 38.5km 9km Luno WF11430 p4 01.12
66 Mre Basin Area Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012
67 Mre Basin Area - A New Core Area 2012 Exploration Drilling PL519 (Lundin 40% operated) Albert prospect 0 KM 20 Gross unrisked prospective resources: 177 MMboe PL639 Drilling: 2Q 2012 Albert PL519 Norway Further…
68 Mre Basin - A New Core Area Lundin block PL519 Lundin 40% (Operator) PL555 Lundin 60% (Operator) a sin Albert 2012 Drilling eB PL579 Lundin 50% (Operator) r M ssiinn Albert BBaa llkk rruu PL519 Storm M M a a…
69 Southern NCS Area & Norwegian Sea (PL330) Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012
71 More Elephants in Norway Lundin operated block Lundin non-operated block New area with large potential 6708 PL654 6709 6710 6711 6703 6704 6705 6706 PL653 6707 PL330, PL653 & PL654 (Lundin 30% ) 6611 Rwe Dea 40%…
72 Barents Sea Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012
73 Barents Sea The Exploration History Norwegian side: Some 80+ wells drilled since 1980 0 00'0 KM 100'0E 400 Longyearbyen Svalbard 200'0E 300'0E 400'0E 500'0E 600'0E Most wells drilled in the Hammerfest Basin NPD:…
74 Lundin Acreage on Trend with Known Oil Plays Lundin Licence acreage in relation to proven and potential oil plays in the western Barents Sea Carboniferous Permian Possible Triassic Jurassic Base Tertiary oil mature Lower…
81 Gaupe - Development 15/12-4 15/12-8 15/12-15 15/12-8 A REV 15/12-13 Lundin Petroleum 40% 0015 016 Gaupe Field 15/12-17 A 15/12-12 15/12-17 S BG Norge 60% (operator) 15/12-16 S PL292b 15/12-7 S 2P gross…
82 Brynhild - Development PL292B MARIA 0 KM 20 SEYMOUR PL292 Gaupe Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum interest: 70% (operator) Lundin Petroleum Partner Talisman 30% SHELLEY PL292 PDO approved in November 2011…
83 Brynhild - Subsurface Producer Injector Producer Injector 7/4-2 Development Plan 2 producers 2 injectors 7/7-2 Cross Section N-S OWC 3357m SSTVD 7/4-2 7/7-2 N S Porosity Effective OWC WF11394 p1 01.12
84 Byla - Development Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum Partner PL088 PL088 9/14a-6 PL413 0 KM 4 9/15a-1 PL088 bs PL036C P090 PL088 BS PEIK Lundin Petroleum interest: 15% 9/15a-2 UK 24/6-1…
85 Norway Summary Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012
87 Norway - Production Growth 60,000 boepd Johan Sverdrup Apollo 45,000 boepd 30,000 boepd Luno Volund Byla Brynhild 15,000 boepd Gaupe Alvheim 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015…
88 Norway 2012 Drilling Programme 2012 Norway exploration budget: MUSD 364 Barents Sea 8 exploration & 6 appraisal wells in 2012 in 4 core areas 2012 net unrisked prospective resources: 446 MMboe 2012 net risked prospective…
89 Norway - New APA 2011 Award PL631 0 20 KM 80 0 20 KM 80 PL653 0 KM 50 PL654 Barents Sea Bergen PL646 PL659 Greater Alvheim Area PL625 Greater Luno Area Stavanger Norwegian Sea PL609B North Sea PL495B…
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91 2012 South East Asia Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012
92 Why South East Asia Opportunity to access resources Open bidding for blocks Foreign investment encouraged Prospective Proven petroleum systems Potential to open new plays Scale Large contract areas Ability to leverage…
93 Production: Singa Field 0 KM 20 Indonesia Singa gas field: 25.88% (non-operated) SUMATRA Onshore South Sumatra Gas sales to PGN Singa Production: 2.0 Mboepd 2P reserves: 3.9 MMboe Contingent resources: 2.1 MMboe…
94 South East Asia Core Areas Significant expansion of core areas 2008 (5 Blocks), 2010 (2 Blocks), 2011 (3 Blocks) Sabah Core Area Vietnam Malaysia SB303 Thailand Natuna Core Area 2008 SB307/308 Penyu Core Area Cakalang…
95 Malaysia - Penyu Basin Core Area Same Scale Norway Greater Alvheim & Luno Core Areas Penyu Basin 0 KM 50 Lundin Petroleum Licences Alvheim 009 Operated 0027 0026 Hydrocarbon fields/discoveries Volund Oil 0025 Gas…
96 Malaysia - Penyu Basin Prospectivity Contains the Bertam and Rhu Lundin Petroleum Licences oil discoveries (proven A Operated IND AYSIA ESI petroleum systems) ON Hydrocarbon fields/discoveries L MA…
97 Malaysia - Penyu Basin Prospectivity North-South Play Cross-section, Rhu-Cherating-Tenggol Janglau-1 Bertam-1 Rhu-1A Cherating-1 Bertam-2 PM308A PM307 0 SL S N 0 SL Regional seals TENGGOL Shallow play RHU ARCH -1 -1…
98 Malaysia - Penyu Basin Exploration: 2012 Lundin Petroleum Licences A Operated IND AYSIA ESI ON Hydrocarbon fields/discoveries L MA Oil Gas Prospect / lead Sotong Field Malong South China Field Sea…
99 Malaysia - Sabah Core Area Scale Same Scale Greater Alvheim & Luno Core Areas Sabah Shelf Peik (088) 0 10 KM 40 Lundin Petroleum Licences Alvheim (036c,088bs,203) Operated Hydrocarbon fields/discoveries Cempulut discovery…
100 Malaysia - Sabah Core Area Prospectivity Lundin operates large shelf position (SB303 & SB307/308) Lundin Petroleum Licences SB307/308 surrounds major Shell Operated Cempulut discovery producing fields, 500mmbo…