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LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group

BG Group · Jan 24, 2013 · 24 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 1
    LNG - are the dynamics changing State-of-the-industry address Steve Hill Singapore 24 January 2013
  2. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 2
    Singapore aggregator market Singapore LNG Demand 4 3 mtpa supply commitment provided supply security 3 Rapid uptake of competitive mtpa 2 long term sales almost 2.7 mtpa contracted 1 Ongoing market development, spot…
  3. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 3
    LNG are the dynamics changing LNG dynamics today Future dynamics Gas demand outlook LNG as a share of global gas LNG markets Global LNG demand and supply outlook New LNG supply sources LNG supply challenges 4
  4. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 4
    LNG today 2012 trade = 240 mt* 10% of all gas consumed A global trade 18 exporters 26 importers 365 ships An increasing dynamism; Short-term trade** = 25% of total (2011) AB to PB = 22.4 mt* 2012 But still far from…
  5. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 5
    LNG imports by region 2005 - 2015 actual forecast 300 Supply outpacing Asian Pac demand Asian Pac demand growth outpacing growth supply S. America 250 M. East 200 Europe mtpa 150 100 Asia Pacific 50 North America…
  6. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 6
    Supply: 2012 YoY 3.0 2.0 Total = -2.5 mtpa 1.0 mt 0.0 Qatar Indonesia Yemen US (Kenai) Brunei T&T EG Norway Oman Algeria Libya Australia Egypt UAE Peru Russia…
  7. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 7
    Markets: 2012 YoY 15 -22.8 +20.3 mtpa mtpa 10 -10.4 N. Europe +8.7 Japan -8.0 M. Europe Total = -2.5 mtpa +5.9 other Asia -4.1 Americas +4.3 Americas +1.4 Other mt 5 0 Italy Netherlands Turkey Portugal…
  8. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 8
    LNG the future Queensland Curtis LNG site Curtis Island
  9. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 9
    Strong gas demand growth World gas demand (bcma) CAGR 2010 2020 China 11.2% Asia (excluding China) 3.3% Russia and Central Asia 0.8% Middle East & Africa 4.4% South America 2.9% North America 2.1% Europe 0.1% TOTAL…
  10. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 10
    LNG: outpacing gas industry growth 2011 global gas consumption LNG as a share of global gas 16% 10% 14% International trade 30% 12% LNG 10% 22% Pipeline 8% Domestic 68% consumption 6% 4% 2% 0% 1970 1975 1980 1985…
  11. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 11
    LNG importers: 26 countries UK Netherlands Canada France Belgium S. Korea Portugal Turkey US Italy Japan Spain Kuwait Greece China Mexico Puerto Rico India Dubai Taiwan Dom. Rep Thailand Indonesia Chile Brazil…
  12. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 12
    Top four importers in 2025 (mtpa) 125 2009 forecast 2012 forecast 100 75 50 25 0 Japan China India South Korea Source: BG Group interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (Nov 2009 and Aug 2012 forecasts) 13
  13. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 13
    Asian LNG imports (2020 to 2025) 350 CAGR CAGR 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2025 300 6.2% pa 5.9% pa 250 New China 200 mtpa India 150 100 JKT 50 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: BG Group interpretation of Wood…
  14. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 14
    The LNG supply challenge 500 LNG trade 450 forecast 400 Supply- demand 168 mtpa 350 gap 300 mtpa 250 Australia 200 Supply: Qatar existing and 150 under construction 100 50 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025…
  15. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 15
    A rapidly changing supply perspective US LNG exports Mozambique Cumulative DOE filings (mtpa) Reserves announced* (tcf) 250 140 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 19 120 200 16 100 14 150 12 80 8 1st appraisal well 60 100 BG…
  16. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 16
    /MMBtu 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 Jan-97 Source: Platts Jan-98 Price risk Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Henry Hub Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10…
  17. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 17
    New supply for Asia Japan W. Canada 3,940 n miles Asia Pac. US Gulf Coast E. Africa Japan 9,282 n miles Japan 6,747 Other trades (n miles) n miles Source Market Distance Qatar Japan 6,314 Australia Japan 3,683 18…
  18. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 18
    Long-term supply challenges Supply prospects for 2020 (mtpa) -17% Speculative Possible Probable Under Construction Onstream Source: Wood Mackenzie - LNG Service and Tool 19
  19. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 19
    Supply observations US exports Volume will be project and market limited irrespective of Govt. policy Policy delays will act to extend current market tightness Western Canada Traditional resource play very different from US Pipe…
  20. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 20
    Asia LNG demand gap vs. US exports Asia supply-demand gap 2025 140 mt by 2025 140 120 Research house views suggest 40 to 60 mtpa US 100 exports credible by 2025 80 mtpa Additional conventional 60 supply also needed 40…
  21. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 21
    Will US exports change LNG liquidity Assumptions: 500 12% European market 450 overflow becomes spot / traded volume 400 6 bcf/d (45 mtpa) US 18% exports of which 27 350 mtpa are market sticky: Korea (3.5) Spot / traded 14%…
  22. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 22
    Are the dynamics changing Strong global gas demand growth LNG playing a growing role in meeting this Asia is the key driver of LNG demand for the foreseeable future Continued near-term tightness US exports unlikely to be a…
  23. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 23
  24. LNG Are the Dynamics Changing – BG Group – slide 24
    Asian LNG pricing options Oil indexation Continue to negotiate slope, constant & kink-points Price against a gas market hub alternative (HH, NBP) Wisdom of linking price to a distant market HH linked pricing doesnt necessarily…

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