Are we witnessing a changing world for gas and LNG Martin Houston, Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer BG Group 11 June 2013 Kuala Lumpur 1
Three paradigm shifts Evolution of oil price Impact of the Fukushima disaster in Japan Shale gas revolution in the United States 3
Role of gas in the fuel mix Role of gas becoming less clear in the minds of governments Gas is an affordable, increasingly abundant, secure and relatively low- carbon form of energy Renewables and coal are false dawns Gas is…
Strong global gas demand Global gas supply (bcma) Sources: Supply: BG Group interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (2013 Q1). 5
Emerging LNG supply gap Global LNG supply (mtpa) Sources: Supply: BG Group interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (2013 Q1). Trade: various research house views; Wood Mackenzie, PFC Energy, IHS CERA, Poten & Partners, PIRA,…
The supply landscape is changing US LNG exports Mozambique Cumulative DOE filings (mtpa) Reserves announced* (tcf) 250 160 2010 2011 2012 23 140 18 200 16 120 14 150 100 12 80 1st appraisal well BG Group - SP deal 8…
Questions facing the industry Will US success in unconventional sources be replicated elsewhere Will the changing supply landscape lead to a shift in global trade and balance 8
Rapid developments in the US gas market US gas demand to 2025 bcma 1000 900 LNG exports 800 700 600 Power 500 400 Industrial 300 200 100 Residential and Commercial 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022…
Will US success be replicated elsewhere US geology well-known US oil-field service industry has unprecedented scale US has good water availability US individuals own the mineral rights to their land 10
How the gas market is growing Countries are looking beyond traditional uses of gas in power and industry. Gas in road transport This trend is apparent in China Encouraged by government policies Chinese NOCs also actively…
Trade patterns and balances Illusion of a coming buyers market is not new we have been here before New supply will take longer than many envisage US LNG adds beneficial flexibility but pricing will remain regional Non-US…
Conclusions US experience of unconventional sources will not be replicated elsewhere anytime soon Changing supply landscape will not result in oversupply LNG demand is usually latent, supply is usually long-dated the next…