Global LNG Market Outlook Andrew Walker VP Global LNG Singapore, 11th March 2015 Methane Shirley Elisabeth LNG vessel
Global LNG market update Review of 2014 Supply Markets Prices Trade dynamics Outlook for 2015 Key influences And beyond . Key trends 3
Summary 2014 Supply effectively flat / record Asian imports, but growth-rate slowed in 2014 Some pockets of demand weakness in particular S. Korea & China This weighed on the Asian spot market over summer 2014 Asian pull was still…
LNG supply by year: 2005 to 2014 260 240 220 200 mtpa 180 160 140 120 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: BG Group interpretation of IHS Waterborne data (Jan 2015), delivered volumes 5
Supply: 2014 YOY Net supply = +3.5 mtpa 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 mt 0.0 Oman Yemen Algeria Qatar Brunei EG Angola Egypt Indonesia T&T Peru US Kenai Malaysia Norway UAE…
Markets: 2014 YOY Net imports = +3.5 mtpa 2 -8.7 mtpa +12.2 mtpa -2.7 Korea 1 -2.6 M. Europe (net) 0 Canada Belgium Israel P Rico Kuwait Dom Rep Korea China UK Brazil Spain Portugal…
Singapore LNG deliveries Singapore: largest S.E. Asian importer in 2014 Singapore sources of supply 2014 South East Asia LNG imports 4 2.0 Cargo re-exported In Jan 15 1.6 3 vessels delivered 1.2 mtpa 2 0.8 1…
LNG trade balance: 2014 vs 2013 YOY prices 5 0.00 Asian JCC 4 spot -0.20 3 -0.40 2 Europe -1.6 mt /mmBtu -0.60 mt 1 0 -0.80 Latin Am. Supply M. Europe US / Can N. Europe Asia / M.E. (-5.19/bbl)…
European LNG imports: 2010 to 2014 12 3-month moving average 5 2014 vs. 2010 Netherlands 0 Lithuania 10 Netherlands -5 Spain 8 UK Belgium -10 Main Europe bcfd Turkey 6 -23.6 mt Spain -15 France Portugal 4 Italy…
LNG market balance LNG imports by region 2008-16 (mtpa) 300 Market loosening Market tightening Market volatility Supply outpacing Asia demand growth Asia demand growth outpacing supply 250 Total supply 200 150 Europe…
Gas and LNG prices (2008 2015) Asian spot prices have varied between Global Asia Fukushima 110/bbl European prices recession recovery earthquake oil price (NBP) and oil parity 25 Trend expected to continue 20 /mmbtu 15 Asia…
Gas and LNG prices (2014 2016) Asia spot price (ranges) 22 NBP(less regas)+shipping LTC (14.85%*JCC(-3)+0.50) Asia spot price - JKM JCC 20 Japan average import price 18 16 Japan avg /mmBtu Asia spot Long-term 14 price…
2014: Year in review Supply Limited growth YOY - four new trains had little volume impact Markets Growth & diversification - six new terminals (one new market) added Record imports into Asia and Latin America: slight decrease in…
Outlook for 2015: key influences Supply Timing of new supply from Australia Markets Potential start-up of Japanese nuclear capacity H2 Up to six new markets; Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Philippines, Poland, Uruguay China & South Korea…
LNG supply vs. demand to 2025 2014 to 2025 CAGR(%) = 5.1 2025 trade outlook* 400 LNG trade outlook (excluding Europe/US) New supply US 300 mtpa 2014 Australia LNG supply 200 (delivered) Supply: Qatar existing and under…
Looking beyond 2015 Supply factors Ramp-up rate of Australian supply (58 mtpa under construction) Ramp-up rate of US supply (41 mtpa* under significant construction) Watch for FIDs in 2015+ (20 mtpa sanctioned in each of last 4…
Summary 2014 Supply effectively flat / record Asian imports, but growth-rate slowed in 2014 Some pockets of demand weakness in particular S. Korea & China This weighed on the Asian spot market over summer 2014 Asian pull was still…
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