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02 2011 Presentation – BG Group

BG Group · Feb 8, 2011 · 90 slides

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Slides

  1. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 1
    BG Group - Global Gas Major London 8 February 2011
  2. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 2
    Welcome Sir Robert Wilson Chairman
  3. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 3
    Introduction Frank Chapman Chief Executive
  4. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 4
    Legal Notice Certain statements included in this presentation contain forward-looking information concerning BG Groups strategy, operations, financial performance or condition, outlook, growth opportunities or circumstances in the…
  5. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 5
    Global Gas Major Agenda Welcome Sir Robert Wilson Introduction Frank Chapman 2010 Results Ashley Almanza Markets & LNG Martin Houston Portfolio for growth Frank Chapman 5
  6. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 6
    Introduction Key messages 2011 February 2010 February 2011 E&P: upper end 6-8% to 2020 Reaffirm 6-8%, 7% from existing discoveries LNG: 20 mtpa by 2015 Reaffirm, supply potential of 30 mtpa by 2020 Brazil: 400 kboepd by 2020 550…
  7. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 7
    Introduction BG Groups investment proposition Internationally Diversified Integrated Energy Business Specialism in Gas High Growth Rates 8% 6% Clear investment proposition 7
  8. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 8
    Introduction Clear, effective and resilient strategy Global Gas Major Connect gas to Secure competitively high-value markets priced resources Build & access markets Equity reserves Serve customers Contracted resources Skills…
  9. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 9
    Introduction Sources of competitive advantage Gas market Excellent Flexible LNG focus project business pipeline Gas marketing Fast-track Leading leader developer explorer Strong and Top-quartile Long life balanced costs…
  10. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 10
    Introduction BG Group performance Net production (000s boepd) 1800 CAGR 11% 1997-2020 1.6 million boepd 1500 CAGR 11% 1997-2010 1200 1.2 million boepd 900 8% 6% 600 300 0 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2020…
  11. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 11
    Introduction BG Group performance LNG contracted volumes (mtpa) 30 25 CAGR 21% 2003-2015 20 15 CAGR 31% 2003-2010 10 5 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010 2015 2020 QCLNG T3 New supply potential Future volumes at 2011 ref…
  12. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 12
    Introduction BG Group performance Total operating profit ( million) 12000 CAGR 29% 1997-2010 9000 6,925 6,330 6000 5,474 3000 1,905 906 262 0 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2010 Continuing operations excluding disposals,…
  13. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 13
    2010 Results Ashley Almanza Chief Financial Officer
  14. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 14
    2010 results Group highlights Operating profit: +9% Cash flow from operations: +10% EPS: +18% Gearing: 20%, soundly financed Positive outlook Dividend: +10% Good performance, positive outlook 14
  15. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 15
    2010 results E&P total operating profit Q4 Full Year Full Year 2010 2010 YOY Production Volumes (mmboe) 60.7 235.7 +0.3% Operating Profit Pre Exploration 1 229m 4 531m +9% Exploration Expense (162m) (765m) -18% E&P Total…
  16. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 16
    2010 results Proved reserves replacement 256% 224% 62 mmboe 12 mmboe 603 mmboe 529 mmboe 2010 Production Net reported Price Acquisitions Underlying adjustment & disposals Organic Underlying organic reserves…
  17. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 17
    2010 results Proved reserves replacement BG Groups reserves replacement 3 year reserves replacement 3 year total 223% proved RRR 1 year total 224% proved RRR BG 2008-2010 (1) BG 2008-2010 (2) Peer 2007-2009 3 year…
  18. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 18
    2010 results E&P benchmarking 3 year unit F&D cost trend (/boe) Annual unit opex cost trend (/boe) BG 2008-2010 BG 2010 BG 2007-2009 BG 2009 Peer 2007-2009 Peer 2009 0 20 40 60 0 5 10 15 20 Source: Evaluate Energy 2010 BG…
  19. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 19
    2010 results LNG total operating profit Q4 Full Year Full Year 2010 2010 YOY Shipping & Marketing 484m 2 221m - Liquefaction 86m 326m - Business Development (20m) (98m) -33% LNG Total Operating Profit 550m 2 449m +2%…
  20. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 20
    2010 results T&D total operating profit Q4 Full Year Full Year 2010 2010 YOY Comgs excluding RCA* impact 92m 405m +19% Comgs RCA* 43m 149m -41% India 36m 113m +64% Other 19m 44m -25% *RCA (Comgs Regulatory Current Account):…
  21. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 21
    Outlook
  22. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 22
    Outlook E&P production BG Group net production (000s boepd) 1400 CAGR 14% 2010-2015 1100 800 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Future production volumes at 2011 ref erence conditions (see Appendix) Entering period…
  23. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 23
    Outlook LNG BG Group total LNG operating profit ( million) Actual Plan 3000 1.9 to 2.2 bn 2000 1000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Continuing operations excluding disposals, certain re-measurements and impairments Future…
  24. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 24
    Outlook LNG BG Group total LNG contracted volumes (mtpa) 30 20 ca + 50% 10 0 2010 2015 Future volumes at 2011 ref erence conditions (see Appendix) Step change in LNG supply 24
  25. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 25
    Outlook Capital investment 2010 Total capex of 9.2 bn Acquisitions and associated capex of 1.5 bn 2011-2012 10.0 bn in 2011 11.0 bn in 2012 Brazil, Australia, US and UK focus Investment in growth 25
  26. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 26
    Outlook ) Annual capital expenditure Capital expenditure 2011-2012 ( bn) 1.8 0.2 21.0 19.0 18.5 Rebased US Acquisitions Other 2011-2012 guidance follow on Guidance Investment in valuable projects 26
  27. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 27
    Outlook Capital structure and dividend Gearing: 20% Soundly financed Debt maturity profile extended Committed lines increased and extended Strong and growing operating cash flow Dividend up 10% Dividend policy in line with…
  28. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 28
    Outlook Summary Good performance in 2010 Positive outlook E&P volumes LNG supply T&D demand Dividend per share up 10% Good performance and positive outlook 28
  29. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 29
    Markets & LNG Martin Houston Executive Director and MD, Americas & Global LNG
  30. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 30
    Markets Global Gas Major Global Gas Major Connect gas to Secure competitively high-value markets priced resources Build & access markets Equity reserves Serve customers Contracted resources Skills to succeed across the gas…
  31. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 31
    Markets Gas demand outlook World gas demand (bcma) 5000 CAGR 2010-2020 4000 China 10.3% Asia (excluding China) 3.4% 3000 Middle East & Africa 5.4% South America 3.8% 2000 Russia and Central Asia 2.0% 1000 Europe 0.8%…
  32. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 32
    Markets Drivers of gas growth Past demand growth Driven by coal substitution in power Mainly in developed economies Future demand growth Driven by oil substitution In emerging economies Mainly industrial, commercial &…
  33. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 33
    Markets Oil indexation Oil trades globally against deep and transparent indices Long term oil price reflects macro-economic supply & demand Transparency provides buyers and sellers with confidence & certainty Long term industry…
  34. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 34
    Markets Global supply Global gas supply 2010-2020 (bcma) 5000 CAGR 9.0% CAGR 2.9% 4,108 4000 Other LNG 3,087 M East 75% of 3000 C Asia current Russia supply Decline N America 2000 1000 0 2010 2020 Source: BG Group,…
  35. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 35
    Markets US market Demand (bcma) Supply (bcma) Modest demand growth 800 800 LNG imports Fuel and Losses Worlds largest gas market 600 600 Pipeline imports Abundant shale gas resources Power Gas prices to remain well below oil…
  36. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 36
    Markets European market Demand (bcma) Supply (bcma) Gas prices to remain closer to oil parity 600 600 Indigenous supplies declining LNG imports Power Significant increases in pipe gas & LNG Power 450 450 Attractive, high value…
  37. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 37
    Markets Key Asian markets (China, India, JKT*) Demand (bcma) Supply (bcma) Strongest growing world markets 600 600 Strong gas demand growth 500 500 Driven by oil substitution & economic growth 400 400 Industrial, commercial &…
  38. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 38
    Markets Gas penetration China is a key market Gas < 4% of energy mix in 2009 1% gas increase in China energy mix Around 25 bcma increase in demand Equivalent to 4 QCLNG trains China gas penetration to India levels ca 150 bcma…
  39. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 39
    Markets Chinese LNG import estimates Chinese LNG demand forecasts & regas capacity (mtpa) 70 60 Possible 50 Nov 2010 40 Regas capacity Likely (as of Nov 2020 30 Nov 2009 contracted 2010) Approved MoU volumes 14 terminals (as…
  40. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 40
    LNG LNG supply & demand (2020) LNG supply & demand in 2020 (mtpa) 500 Unmet 400 demand Supply Forecast 2020 trade* tightness 70 mtpa 300 supply challenge Planned** 200 100 2010 trade 0 Supply Demand Source:…
  41. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 41
    LNG BG Groups LNG business Traditional challenge Point-to-point supplier/customer alignment BG flexible portfolio Diverse set of customer relationships Tailored supply Virtuous circle, continuously optimised Distinctive…
  42. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 42
    LNG Singapore and QCLNG Singapore Working with Energy Market Authority Built a downstream customer base 2.2 mtpa new demand in 10 months Increase oil indexation in BG portfolio Source: EMA Singapore Termed-out Atlantic Basin…
  43. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 43
    LNG LNG BG Group total LNG contracted volumes (mtpa) 30 ca +50% 20 ca +50% 10 0 2010 2015 2020 QCLNG T3 New supply potential Future volumes at 2011 ref erence conditions (see Appendix) Strong supply growth 43
  44. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 44
    Markets and LNG Key messages Strong growth in global gas demand through decade Global LNG to grow sharply; constrained by supply not demand Oil indexation established norm BG well positioned to take advantage of these…
  45. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 45
    Portfolio for growth Frank Chapman Chief Executive
  46. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 46
    Portfolio for growth Global Gas Major Global Gas Major Connect gas to Secure competitively high-value markets priced resources Build & access markets Equity reserves Serve customers Contracted resources Skills to succeed…
  47. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 47
    Portfolio for growth Australia: Overview QCLNG sanctioned October 2010 Two trains: 8.5 mtpa Asia-Pacific equity LNG 15 billion investment Around 10 mtpa of customer agreements QCLNG sanctioned 47
  48. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 48
    Portfolio for growth Australia: 2010 progress QCLNG Curtis Island plant Over 2,000 wells by 2014 Gladstone 6,000 wells over life of project Existing pipeline 540 km pipeline network QCLNG QCLNG Trains 1 & 2 proposed pipeline…
  49. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 49
    Portfolio for growth Australia: Expansion options Gross reserves/resources (tcf) 24 Expansion potential beyond two trains Resources expanded and matured 18 Gross resources increased to 21 tcf Gross 2P reserves increased to 8 tcf…
  50. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 50
    Portfolio for growth Australia: Production BG Group net production* (000s boepd) Net plateau production ca 210 kboepd* 250 Partner/Other gas supplying QCLNG 200 Net BG Group 150 100 50 0 2010 2015 2020 Future…
  51. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 51
    Portfolio for growth US E&P: US and Canadian production Total US and Canadian production (bcfd) 100 Other gas production 50 US and Canadian shale 0 2010 2015 2020 Source: BG Group Shale transforming US and Canadian…
  52. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 52
    Portfolio for growth US E&P: Shale gas cost of supply Cost of supply (/mmbtu) Barnett other Other CBM Woodford Tight gas Barnett non core Marcellus other Haynesville other CBM core Marcellus core Barnett core Haynesville…
  53. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 53
    Portfolio for growth US E&P: Haynesville* 2009 acquisitions 3.2 tcf total resources BOSSIER HARRISON Acquisition cost 0.4/mcf Current total resources 5.3 tcf BG net wells ca 675 (2011-20) DE SOTO Highest quality areas in…
  54. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 54
    Portfolio for growth US E&P: Lower 48 production BG Group net production (000s boepd) 50 In 2010, rigs grew from 14 to 23 125+ horizontal wells in operation 40 20 mmcfd avg IP rate (Haynesville core) 30 2010 production growth ca…
  55. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 55
    Portfolio for growth US E&P: Haynesville well productivity De Soto single well type curve Daily rate No wells used to Production data ca two years & 90 wells (mcfd) calculate average 25000 100 Extensive data on well performance…
  56. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 56
    Portfolio for growth US E&P: Haynesville core economics Typical well (bcf/year) Average well recovery: 9 bcf 3 BG net wells: 275 (2011-15) Average well cost 9m (1.0/mmbtu) 2 Operating cost: 1.4/mmbtu Unit technical cost:…
  57. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 57
    Portfolio for growth US E&P: Marcellus Acquired 2.9 tcf total resources Acquisition cost 0.4/mcf 12 wells in 2010, 2 rigs operating 5 rigs by end 2011 50 development & 10 appraisal wells Core area economics Potentially similar…
  58. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 58
    Portfolio for growth US E&P: TGGT Gross gathering & treatment volumes (mmcfd) Growing midstream JV with EXCO 4000 Distinct competitive advantage CAGR 31% 2010-14 Able to capture market opportunities 3000 Shreveport 1,000 miles of…
  59. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 59
    Portfolio for growth US E&P: Production Rapidly expanding & capital efficient BG total resources 8.5 tcf Leveraging marketing capabilities Benefit from supply restructuring 190 kboepd sustainable to 2020 59
  60. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 60
    Portfolio for growth Brazil: Key developments in 2010 Lula, Cernambi, Guar resources upgrade Low unit technical costs for first 3 FPSOs Start-up of first permanent Lula FPSO Thirteen FPSOs 1 on stream 10 committed & 2 being…
  61. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 61
    Portfolio for growth Brazil: First three contracted FPSOs Average recovery: 750 mmboe/module Processing & Rio de Janeiro gathering terminal Doubling original estimates Existing gas Capex*: 5/boe pipeline 145 km Mexilho Opex*:…
  62. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 62
    Portfolio for growth Brazil: Lula and Cernambi Gross resources upgrade* 7-9-11 bn boe Cernambi 40% increase in mid-point Potential upside Enhanced recovery techniques Infill drilling Delineation wells on flank Expected to…
  63. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 63
    Portfolio for growth Brazil: Guar Gross resources upgrade* Range narrowed 1.5-1.8-2.0 bn boe Two FPSO development EWT underway, 20,000 bopd Facilities constrained 5 km *BG Group's independently certified resources Field…
  64. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 64
    Portfolio for growth Brazil: Iara & Carioca progress Iara Iara Iara Horst appraisal well spudded DST in 2011 Iara-3 appraisal well in 2011 EWT in 2012 4 km Carioca Carioca Carioca NE discovery; 200 metre section Carioca NE…
  65. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 65
    Portfolio for growth Brazil: Santos basin gas evacuation Cabinas Material gas resources, gross 14 tcf Cabinas Close to markets served by Comgs New Lula-Mexilho pipeline installed SO PAULO Rio de Janeiro Caraguatatuba Export…
  66. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 66
    Portfolio for growth Brazil: Gross FPSO capacity Programme for 2.3 mmboepd capacity by 2017 66
  67. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 67
    Portfolio for growth Brazil: Production BG Group net production (000s boepd) Net production 550 kboepd by 2020* 600 450 300 150 0 2010 2015 2020 Future production volumes at 2011 ref erence conditions (see…
  68. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 68
    Portfolio for growth E&P: BG Group exploration record (1997-2010) Participated in discovery of 13 giant fields Total resources Up from 3.6 to 16.2 bn boe Added 14 bn boe organically Outstanding exploration track record 68
  69. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 69
    Portfolio for growth E&P: A global leader in exploration IRR* Reserve replacement ratio* Discovery costs (/boe)* 0% 10% 20% 0% 500% 1000% 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 *Source: Wood Mackenzie, analysis is based on the period 2000-2009…
  70. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 70
    Portfolio for growth E&P: Prospect inventory Other Australia Brazil Net risked resources of 3.7 bn boe UK Thailand CAGR 12% 2000-2010 Tanzania Egypt 200 prospects & leads Norway 85% gas related China USA 60% in established…
  71. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 71
    Portfolio for growth E&P: 2011 E&A preview UK Summary of well completions 1 well 1 well Norway New plays 2-5 1 well USA Play extenders 10 - 11 70 wells Appraisal/near term 8 - 12 production Unconventional wells 220 wells…
  72. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 72
    Portfolio for growth E&P: Tanzania Excellent position in frontier play ca 28,000 sq km (ca 140 UK blocks) Chewa-1 Block 4* First two wells successful Pweza-1 Significant gas discoveries Block 3* Range of play concepts to be…
  73. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 73
    Portfolio for growth E&P: China China Guangzhou First well, Lingshui 22-1-1, a discovery Hong High quality gas bearing sands Kong 3 blocks covering ca 15,000 sq km Lingshui 33-1-1 exploration well drilling 0 100 53/16 km 3D…
  74. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 74
    Portfolio for growth E&P: Reserves & resources Total reserves & resources (mmboe) CAGR 19% Total reserves & 18000 resources/ 16,180 production* 14,494 13,126 3,707 69 years 3,433 12000 10,046 3,562 53 years 8,017 4,931 5,757…
  75. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 75
    Global Gas Major E&P: Production BG Group net production (000s boepd) 1800 1.6 million Risked Exploration boepd 1500 Other 1.2 million 1200 8% boepd 6% 900 US 600 Australia 300 Brazil 0 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020…
  76. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 76
    Global Gas Major E&P: Key projects 1800 1200 Projects 2011-2013 Projects 2014-2016 Projects 2017-2020 Bolivian projects KGK train 4 Brazil FPSOs Jordbr Block 5c KGK further trains Bongkot South Lula FPSO 2 Bream KGK…
  77. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 77
    Conclusions
  78. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 78
    Global Gas Major Progress highlights E&P volumes: reaffirm 6-8% to 2020, 7% from existing discoveries LNG supply: reaffirm 20 mtpa by 2015, supply potential of 30 mtpa Increased LNG profit guidance Brazil: net production 550 kboepd…
  79. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 79
    Global Gas Major Sources of competitive advantage Gas market Excellent Flexible LNG focus project business pipeline Gas marketing Fast-track Leading leader developer explorer Strong and Top-quartile Long life balanced…
  80. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 80
  81. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 81
    Appendix Key assumptions REFERENCE CONDITIONS Brent Oil price US 70/bbl US Henry Hub 5.5/mmbtu US/UK exchange rates of 1.5:1 US/AUD exchange rates of 1:A1.2 Prepared under International Financial Reporting Standards All production…
  82. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 82
    Appendix Definitions Increase or (decrease) E&A Exploration and Appraisal United States dollar E&P Exploration and Production UK pounds sterling ECMA East Coast Marine Area Greater than EEGA Eastern European Gas Analysis…
  83. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 83
    Appendix Definitions (continued) MoU Memorandum of Understanding RDA Reservoir Data Acquisition mtpa Million tonnes per annum Regas Regasification NCMA North Coast Marine Area RRR Reserves Replacement Ratio (SEC data) NE North East…
  84. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 84
    Appendix Brazil: Lula, Cernambi and Guar resources Resources(a) net to BG Group Previous New Billions Previous indicative MLL certified New BG Group New BG Group New BG Group of barrels indicative resources best estimate best…
  85. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 85
    Appendix Brazil: Santos Basin overview 2011 BM-S-11 (Lula) 6 wells Rio de Janeiro 2 DSTs 1 EWT BM-S-11 (Cernambi) 2 wells 2 DSTs 1 EWT BM-S-11 (Iara) BM-S-52 BM-S-10 2 wells BM-S-11 1 DST Iara Cernambi BM-S-9 (Guar)…
  86. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 86
    Appendix UK BG Group net production (000s boepd) 200 Successful project sanctions in 2010 Further Jasmine, West Franklin Phase 2, potential NW Seymour, Buzzard Phase 4 150 50 mmboe Supporting medium term production Jackdaw…
  87. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 87
    Appendix Kazakhstan Major units debottlenecked Injection capacity increased by 25% Major maintenance program completed Fourth train due on stream this year Western export capacity to 10.3 mtpa Further development opportunities…
  88. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 88
    Appendix Egypt WDDM Project delivery Phase VII pipeline completed, compression project on stream late 2011 Phase VIIIa drilling ongoing Phase VIIIb FEED completed WDDM Phase IX under evaluation North Gamasa Offshore Concession…
  89. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 89
    Appendix Trinidad & Tobago NCMA: Poinsettia drilling completed ECMA: Progress on next developments Block 5c (BG 75%, operator) Appraisal in 2012 Expected field development in 2018 Manatee cross border unitization Agreement…
  90. 02 2011 Presentation – BG Group – slide 90
    Appendix Thailand BG Group net production (000s boepd) 50 Bongkot North Further plateau extension Two discoveries in 2010 4 - 6 E&A wells in 2011 Bongkot South Bongkot South 25 Development proceeding BN Phase 3K BN Phase 3J First…

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