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JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum

Lundin Petroleum · Jan 26, 2012 · 71 slides

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Slides

  1. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 1
    2012 Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day Stockholm, 26th January 2012
  2. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 2
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day notes
  3. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 3
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 4 2011 - a Transformational Year for Lundin Petroleum Exploration success in Norway Johan Sverdrup - A new giant in Norway Strong Production Growth Production at upper end of guidance -…
  4. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 4
    January 2012 6 2011 Financial Perfomance Capital Market Day WF11422 January 2012 notes 7 2011 Forecast Cash Margin Netback [USD/boe] Forecast Capital Market Day 2011 Jan 11 Brent Oil Price 111.25 90.00…
  5. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 5
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 8 2011 Forecast Cost of Operations Russia, 13% 63.55 48.65 Norway, 34% 2011 Capital Market Day Tunisia, 16% 2011 Forecast 40 Indonesia, 5% Netherlands, 11% 30 30 France, 21%…
  6. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 6
    January 2012 10 2011 Forecast Exploration Costs Q4 2011 2011 Q4 2011 Forecast Forecast Forecast after Tax MUSD MUSD MUSD Norway: EARB well + licence relinquishments 74 8 2 Congo (Brazzaville): 2 wells + associated…
  7. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 7
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 12 2011 Forecast Taxation 2011 Q4 2011 Forecast Forecast USD/boe USD/boe Current Tax Charge 32.95 58.55 Deferred Tax Charge 14.35 (9.25) 47.30 49.30 WF11417 p7 01.12…
  8. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 8
    January 2012 14 2011 Forecast EBITDA [USD/boe] 2011 Forecast Cash Margin Netback 88.55 General & Administrative -5.50 EBITDA 83.05 General & Administrative Cash 1.70 Non-cash LTIP 3.80 5.50 Depreciation 0.20…
  9. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 9
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 16 Fourth Quarter 2011 Summary Items Q4 2011 Forecast MUSD Exploration Costs(1) 60 General & Administrative(1) 35 (1) Minimal tax credits WF11417 p23 01.12 notes…
  10. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 10
    January 2012 18 Debt Position - Forecast End 2011 OPERATING MUSD CASH FLOW G&A MUSD 21 WORKING CAPITAL FINANCIAL MUSD 7 MUSD 139 500 MUSD 675 OPENING LOAN 1 Jan 2011 MUSD 459 400 Loan Reduction 300 MUSD 252…
  11. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 11
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 20 1 January 2012 2P Reserves Gas, 16% Total 210.7 MMboe Oil, 84% PSC, 2% Russia, 16.0 France, 24.7 Tunisia, 0.3 Netherlands, 3.6 Tax/Royalty, 98% B yla Br Indonesia, 3.9 ,…
  12. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 12
    January 2012 22 Reserves Changes Produced in 2011 Net Replacement Sales/Acquisition Russia -1.1 0.5 Tunisia -0.3 Alvheim Volund Luno/Tellus Others Brynhild Norway -8.5 0.8 4.3 19.1 3.2 4.1 31.4 Netherlands -0.7…
  13. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 13
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 24 Contingent Resource Growth More than ten times resources increase in Norway 900 800 700 600 500 MMBoe 400 Malaysia 300 Russia 200 Others 100 Norway (1) 0…
  14. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 14
    January 2012 26 2011 Production Performance Russia, 9.4% Tunisia, 2.2% Indonesia, 3.5% Netherlands, 5.9% France, 9.2% 2011 production forecast: 33,200 boepd 40 40 Norway, 69.8% 35 35 33,200 boepd 30 30 Thousand…
  15. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 15
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 28 Norway Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012 notes 29 Norway - An Opportunity for Independents Historically controlled by majors Higher tax rates than UK Lower…
  16. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 16
    January 2012 30 Exploration in Norway - Organic Growth Major position built through organic growth Includes 10 new licences Norway number of licences awarded in 2011 APA 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15…
  17. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 17
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 32 Norway - Finding Costs Finding Cost(1) (Pre Tax) 1.04 USD/boe Finding Cost(1) (Post Tax) 0.23 USD/boe (1) Exploration costs (excl. appraisal costs) since inception and WF11415 p2…
  18. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 18
    January 2012 34 Greater Alvheim Area Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012 notes 35 Greater Alvheim Area BRUCE 0 KM 10 PL088 PL036C PEIK PL088 bs HEIMDAL LEADON BERYL ALVHEIM GEKKO VOLUND…
  19. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 19
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 36 Greater Alvheim Area Moving On 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DNO Acquisition Alvheim (WI 15%) PDO First Oil Discovery Volund PDO (WI 35%) First…
  20. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 20
    January 2012 38 Greater Alvheim Area .... And Volund as well Gross Volund Estimated Ultimate Recovery 60 Cumulative Production End of Year Reserves 17 50 50 50 49 50 46 6 40 38 37 PDO Now MMboe 30 3…
  21. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 21
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 40 Greater Alvheim Area - Exploration LundinPetroleum Operator LundinPetroleum Partner PL088 PL088 9/14a-6 0 KM 4 Alvheim Deep PL088 bs PL036C Discoveries P090 9/15a-1…
  22. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 22
    January 2012 42 Greater Luno Area North Sea 6205 6204 6203 216 217 218 219 6201 6202 6203 6204 Lundin Petroleum Licences 220 Operated 6108 6103 6107 6106 Non-operated 6105 6104 214 0033 Hydrocarbon fields/discoveries…
  23. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 23
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 44 Greater Luno Area - A Bit of History 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 APA License Award Luno Discovery Start Luno Appraisal PL338 Apollo Discovery (WI…
  24. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 24
    January 2012 46 The Luno/Apollo Discoveries - PL338 0 KM 20 Oil Gas PL625 PL625 PL546 PL501 Lundin Petroleum 50% (operator) Partners: RWE Dea 20%, Wintershall 30% Tellus Luno/Tellus discoveries: Apollo Gross…
  25. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 25
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 48 Johan Sverdrup - A New Giant in Norway PL546 PL501 Johan Sverdrup PL501 (40% operator) Avaldsnes Discovery 2010 (16/2-6) 1st appraisal (16/3-4) & sidetrack completed 16/2-9S 2nd…
  26. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 26
    January 2012 50 Latest Appraisal Well (16/5-2 S) Results Good upper Jurassic reservoir encountered Deeper than expected Same hydrocarbon system WF11424 p1 01.12 notes 51 Johan Sverdrup PL501 - Depth…
  27. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 27
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 52 2012 Appraisal Programme Appraisal 4 (16/2-11) 2.5 km SE from the Johan Sverdrup (PL265) discovery well Possible geological barriers Provide a further data point / Smaller faults for…
  28. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 28
    January 2012 54 2012 Further Appraisal - Apollo Apollo extension NOOR 16/1-15 Apollo discovery Luno/Tellus Luno South discovery NOOR 16/1-15 Lundin (50%) PL338 PL265 0016 PL359 0015 Lundin Petroleum Operator…
  29. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 29
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 56 Greater Luno Area Prospectivity WF11438 p1 01.12 notes 57 Luno II Prospect - PL359 2012 Exploration Drilling Johan Sverdrup discovery PL359 (Lundin 40% operated) Luno II…
  30. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 30
    January 2012 58 East-West Trending Line Across Luno II A Luno II Luno II A -1600 Top Reservoir -1700 Top Chalk -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 Base Jurassic WF11426 p1 01.12 -2300 A A notes…
  31. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 31
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 60 Jorvik Prospect - PL338 2012 Exploration Drilling PL338 (Lundin 50% operated) Jorvik prospect Gross unrisked prospective resource: 46 MMboe Tellus Luno extension towards the east…
  32. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 32
    January 2012 62 Greater Luno Area - Luno Development 0 KM 20 PL036c Lundin Petroleum interest: 50% (operator) Alvheim Area Wintershall 30%, RWE Dea 20% PL203 PL505BS PL150B PL150 008 009 PL547S Development Plan…
  33. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 33
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 64 Luno Development Project Execution starting Jan 2012 Production startup Oct 2015 Capital costs: 24 NOK billion Drilling 15 wells from jack-up rig 11 producers and 4 water injectors…
  34. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 34
    January 2012 66 Mre Basin Area Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012 notes 67 Mre Basin Area - A New Core Area 2012 Exploration Drilling PL519 (Lundin 40% operated) Albert prospect 0 KM 20 Gross unrisked…
  35. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 35
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 68 Mre Basin - A New Core Area Lundin block PL519 Lundin 40% (Operator) PL555 Lundin 60% (Operator) sin PL579 Lundin 50% (Operator) e Ba Albert 2012 Drilling r M ssiinn Albert k k…
  36. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 36
    January 2012 70 Southern NCS Area 2012 Exploration Drilling PL495 (Lundin 60% operated) Carlsberg prospect PL495B Gross unrisked prospective 0 10 20 40 PL495 KM resources: 67 MMboe Carlsberg Drilling: 4Q 2012 Ogna…
  37. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 37
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 72 Barents Sea Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012 notes 73 Barents Sea The Exploration History Norwegian side: Some 80+ wells drilled since 1980 0 00'0 KM 100'0E…
  38. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 38
    January 2012 74 Lundin Acreage on Trend with Known Oil Plays Lundin Licence acreage in relation to proven and potential oil plays in the western Barents Sea Carboniferous Permian Possible Triassic Jurassic Base Tertiary oil…
  39. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 39
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 76 Pulk on Trend with Discoveries PL609 Pulk (Salinas) April 2011 Skrugard Discovery on trend with latest oil discoveries (Skrugard 150-250 MMboe 7220/6-1 & Havis) 7220/8-1 Januray…
  40. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 40
    January 2012 78 Barents Sea - PL659 - APA 2011 Award PL659 Lundin Petroleum 20% 0 KM 20 PL609 Skrugard Discovery Havis Discovery PL659 PL533 PL609B PL492 PL438 PL490 PL563 SNHVIT GOLIAT…
  41. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 41
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 80 Norway - Other Development North Sea 6205 6204 6203 216 217 218 219 6201 6202 6203 6204 Lundin Petroleum Licences 220 Operated 6108 6103 6107 6106 Non-operated 6105 6104 214…
  42. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 42
    January 2012 82 Brynhild - Development PL292B MARIA 0 KM 20 SEYMOUR PL292 Gaupe Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum interest: 70% (operator) Lundin Petroleum Partner Talisman 30% SHELLEY PL292 PDO approved…
  43. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 43
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 84 Byla - Development Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum Partner PL088 PL088 9/14a-6 PL413 0 KM 4 9/15a-1 PL088 bs PL036C P090 PL088 BS PEIK Lundin Petroleum…
  44. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 44
    January 2012 86 Norway Resources - 01.01.2012 Byla, 3.2 Skalle, 7.1 Others, 32.3 Brynhild, 14.3 Apollo, 17.5 Alvheim, 26.1 Indonesia, 3.9 Volund, 13.1 Gaupe, 12.5 Luno, 93.0 Johan Sverdrup(1), 640.0 Reserves…
  45. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 45
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 88 Norway 2012 Drilling Programme 2012 Norway exploration budget: MUSD 364 Barents Sea 8 exploration & 6 appraisal wells in 2012 in 4 core areas 2012 net unrisked prospective resources: 446…
  46. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 46
    January 2012 90 notes 91 2012 South East Asia Capital Market Day WF11420 January 2012 notes
  47. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 47
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 92 Why South East Asia Opportunity to access resources Open bidding for blocks Foreign investment encouraged Prospective Proven petroleum systems Potential to open new plays Scale Large…
  48. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 48
    January 2012 94 South East Asia Core Areas Significant expansion of core areas 2008 (5 Blocks), 2010 (2 Blocks), 2011 (3 Blocks) Sabah Core Area Vietnam Malaysia SB303 Thailand Natuna Core Area 2008 SB307/308 Penyu…
  49. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 49
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 96 Malaysia - Penyu Basin Prospectivity Contains the Bertam and Rhu Lundin Petroleum Licences oil discoveries (proven A Operated IND AYSIA ESI petroleum systems) ON…
  50. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 50
    January 2012 98 Malaysia - Penyu Basin Exploration: 2012 Lundin Petroleum Licences A Operated IND AYSIA ESI ON Hydrocarbon fields/discoveries L MA Oil Gas Prospect / lead Sotong Field Malong South…
  51. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 51
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 100 Malaysia - Sabah Core Area Prospectivity Lundin operates large shelf position (SB303 & SB307/308) Lundin Petroleum Licences SB307/308 surrounds major Shell Operated Cempulut…
  52. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 52
    January 2012 102 Developing Gas Market in East Malaysia 0 15 KM 60 2 established demand centres SB303 - Labuan & Kota Kinabalu Cempulut Discovery South China New oil and gas terminal (SOGT) and Sea Tarap Discovery…
  53. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 53
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 104 Indonesia - Natuna Core Area Scale Same Scale Greater Alvheim & Luno Core Areas Cakalang & Baronang Area Peik (088) 0 10 KM 40 0 10 KM 40 Alvheim (036c,088bs,203) Vietnam KB Graben…
  54. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 54
    January 2012 106 3D Coverage: Norway Example Bertam 1 Kemaman Harbor Belida Belida Multiple 3D s of varying vintage covering Rhu 1A Sembilang Indonesia Norwegian core areas Kuantan New Port Malaysia Sparse…
  55. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 55
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 108 2013+ Exploration Drilling Activity Malaysia (PM): Indonesia: Malaysia (Sabah): 1 commitment 2 commitment No remaining well remaining wells remaining commitment wells Sabah Core…
  56. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 56
    January 2012 110 South East Asia Highlights Accumulated a leading core area position in Malaysia and Indonesia Excellent start to drilling campaign PM307: Appraisal success (Bertam) fast track development huge 3D follow up…
  57. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 57
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 112 France - Growth Potential Est Champagne Reims Plivot La Motte Noire Vert-la-Gravelle Pays du Major operated portfolio Paris Fontaine-au-Bron Saulnois Villeperdue Val-des- Marais…
  58. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 58
    January 2012 114 Russia - Lagansky Lundin Petroleum working interest 70% - Gunvor 30% Drilled 3 exploration wells Morskaya discovery in 2008 3D seismic in 2009 2010 157 MMboe gross contingent resources on block Discussions…
  59. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 59
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 116 2012 Forecast Margin Netback [USD/boe] Forecast Forecast Forecast 2012 2012 2011 Brent Oil Price 95.00 115.00 111.25 Revenue 83.90 99.30 104.50 Cost of Operations -9.35 -9.35…
  60. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 60
    January 2012 118 2012 Cost of Operations - Quarterly Forecast 2012 Average 12.00 12.00 Alvheim & Volund well interventions 11.00 11.00 10.00 10.00 USD/boe USD/boe 9.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 Q1 Q2…
  61. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 61
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 120 2012 Forecast Profit Netback [USD/boe] Forecast Forecast 2012 2012 Brent oil price 95.00 115.00 Cash Margin Netback 68.80 83.40 Depletion -13.20 -13.20 G&A -3.30 -3.30 Financial…
  62. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 62
    January 2012 122 Norwegian Tax Value Norwegian Tax Value from historic capex spend - 01.01.2012 (MUSD) 400 400 350 350 Net tax value (MUSD) Net tax value (MUSD) 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50…
  63. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 63
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 124 2012 Forecast EBITDA Netback [USD/boe] Forecast Forecast 2012 2012 Brent Oil Price 95.00 115.00 Cash Margin Netback 68.80 83.40 General & Administrative -3.00 -3.00 EBITDA 65.80…
  64. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 64
    January 2012 126 2012 Forecast Other Items ShaMaran (Q1 2012) 50 Million shares held in ShaMaran Booked at CND 0.63/share (2009) Currently trading around CND 0.25/share Approx. MUSD 20 non-cash expense WF11417 p21…
  65. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 65
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 128 Share Capital 31 December 2011 Shares issued 317.9 million Shares in circulation 311 million Treasury shares 6.9 million Listed on Stockholm and Toronto stock exchanges…
  66. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 66
    January 2012 130 2012 Budget Development Expenditure MUSD Others, 20 France, 30 Norway - Gaupe, 15 Norway - Byla, 25 Norway - Luno, 190 Norway - Alvheim, 30 2012 Drilling 100 Norway - Volund, 35 Facilities 400…
  67. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 67
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 132 2012 Budget Exploration Expenditure MUSD Others, 20 Malaysia, 75 (5 wells) Norway - Greater Luno Area, 180 (8 wells) Norway - Others, 50 2012 Drilling 320 Seismic/G&G…
  68. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 68
    January 2012 134 Increase of North Sea Production All fields fully appraised Development plans submitted or to be submitted in 2012 Johan Sverdrup Luno/Tellus Apollo Skalle Onstream Caterpillar Byla Tarap Onstream…
  69. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 69
    Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day notes
  70. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 70
    January 2012 notes
  71. JANUARY 2012 CAPITAL MARKET DAY – Lundin Petroleum – slide 71
    For further information, contact Lundin Petroleum Ch. de la Pallanterie 5 1222 Vsenaz Switzerland Telephone: (41 22) 595 10 00 Facsimile: (41 22) 595 10 05 e-mail: infolundin.ch Website: www.lundin-petroleum.com

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