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MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited

Canadian Oil Sands Limited · Apr 3, 2012 · 23 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 1
    Macquarie Capital Markets Heavy Oil & Oil Sands Corporate Day Toronto April 3, 2012
  2. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 2
  3. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 3
    Reserves and Resources Definitions: Proved Reserves are reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. NI 51-101 further identifies the certainty level for proved reserves as at least a 90%…
  4. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 4
    Why own COS Pure crude oil investment in long-life resource 20% production uplift expected by achieving design capacity Future development potential on high-quality, undeveloped leases Well-positioned with financial strength and…
  5. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 5
    Syncrude supported by Management Services Agreement with ExxonMobil and Imperial Oil Canadian Oil Sands (COS) Imperial Oil 36.74% 25% Suncor 12% 7.23% 5% Murphy Oil Sinopec Mocal Nexen XOM/IMO provide global best…
  6. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 6
    2012 Outlook 2012 millions unless otherwise indicated Outlook1 Sales volume (bbl/d) 2 113,400 WTI average (US/bbl) 90.00 Operating expenses 1,516 ( per bbl) 36.52 Sales 3 3,813 Cash flow from operations 1,825 ( per share) 3 77…
  7. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 7
    Major projects spending profile1 billions Spent to 2012 2 2013 2014 Total 3 Dec. 31, 2011 Syncrude 2.3 2.7 2.0 1.2 8.2 Canadian Oil Sands 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 3.1 share 1. Costs exclude regular maintenance (1.1 billion gross to…
  8. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 8
    Aurora North mine train relocations Much smaller scope than Mildred Lake mine train construction 2 existing mine trains will be relocated No production impact expected (3 trains at Aurora North provides flexibility during move…
  9. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 9
    Achieving design capacity has significant financial impact Illustrative cash flow from operations (/share)3,4 4.73 3.77 3 25% increase in cash flow from 14% increase in production 2012F 2012F 113 mm bbls annually 1 129 mm…
  10. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 10
    Highly leveraged to increasing crude oil prices Illustrative cash flow from operations (/share)2,3 2.02 6.00 5.00 4.00 2012 estimate 3.00 2.00 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 WTI (US) All figures in Canadian dollars…
  11. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 11
    Compelling valuation relative to new mining projects Project(s) Cost estimate/ Production Product per flowing bbl Enterprise value1 capacity (bbl/d) Syncrude 11.8 billion 128,000 Light, sweet 92,000 (COS share) synthetic Kearl Lake 2…
  12. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 12
    Highest yield amongst peers COS 5.48% Canadian Natural 1.28% Cenovus 2.50% Imperial 1.08% MEG 0.00% Nexen 1.12% Suncor 1.35% S&P/TSX 2.74% S&P 500 Average 1.96% Bank of Canada 1.03% Source: Bloomberg as at Mar. 28/12 Note:…
  13. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 13
    Appendix Senior notes issue US 700 million p 1, 2022 400 million at 4.5% due April 300 million at 6.0% due April 1, 2042 Ratings: Moodys - Baa2 (Stable) and S&P - BBB (Stable) Expected to result in net debt of 1.5 billion,…
  14. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 14
    price differentials to WTI US/bbl WTI SCO Bitumen 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20 00 20.00 0.00 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 SCO has traded close to WTI, but volatility increasing…
  15. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 15
    Factors that affect dividend payout Supported by: Balanced by: Strong balance sheet Higher capex anticipated in 2012 and 2013 Large operating base generating reliable cash flow Cash taxes (1-2 years) Spending on Aurora South…
  16. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 16
    COS most levered to WTI oil prices 2012 cash flow per share sensitivity to WTI oil prices 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% WTI - 10/bbl WTI + 10/bbl -30% COS MEG PXX IMO SU CNQ NXY HSE TLM CVE ECA Source: TD…
  17. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 17
    A mine train produces bitumen 1 Crusher 2 Surge bin 3 Mix box 4 Hydrotransport 2 1 3 4 Strong lease position for future development Undeveloped Aurora South leases have similar ore quality and stripping ratio to…
  18. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 18
    A responsible developer of the oil sands Achievements at Syncrude 9 Reduced energy use per barrel by 39% since 1982, thereby reducing CO2 emissions 9 First operating mine to receive conditional approval for a tailings management…
  19. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 19
    Syncrudes tailings management plan Three pronged approach: Centrifuge Spinning action separates out the water Consolidated tails Combining fine tails with gypsum and sand as the tailings are deposited, causing the tailings to…
  20. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 20
    2012 Crown Royalty Calculation Based on 2012 guidance provided Feb. 1/12 SCO % Mining Bitumen Revenue1 3,813 2,861 Operating expenses (1,516) 75% (1,137) Non-production costs (146) 75% (110) Capital expenditures (1,379) 70% (965)…
  21. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 21
    Credit Suisse Energy Summit 2012 February 9, 2012 Ryan y Kubik Chief Financial Officer Canadian Oil Sands Limited
  22. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 22
    * See update to Major Project Cost Estimate and Major Project Spending profile in COS' Management's 2012 Guidance Document Discussion and Analysis dated Feb. 23/12. February 1, 2012 (All financial figures are in Canadian dollars…
  23. MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS HEAVY OIL & OIL SANDS CORPORATE DAY – Canadian Oil Sands Limited – slide 23
    2500, 350 7 Avenue S.W. Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2P 3N9 Tel: 403.218.6200 Fax: 403.218.6201 Email: investor_relationscdnoilsands.com T Toronto S k Exchange: Stock E h COS WEBSITE: www.cdnoilsands.com Current Unit price News…

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