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NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc

Perpetual Energy Inc · Nov 14, 2012 · 42 slides

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Slides

  1. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 1
    November 2012
  2. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 2
    Perpetual Energy -TSX: PMT CONVENTIONAL SHALLOW GAS DISTRIBUTING TRUST DIVERSIFIED RESOURCE - STYLE GROWTH - ORIENTED ENTREPRENEURIAL EXPLORER, PRODUCER & MARKETER BUILT TO GROW BUILT TO PROSPER BUILT TO LAST 2
  3. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 3
    Market Profile TSX:PMT Common shares outstanding 147.3 million Management ownership 25.2% Share price (5 day weighted average) 1.51 Market capitalization 225 million Convertible debentures (PMT.DB.D; PMT.DB.E) 160 million Senior…
  4. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 4
    Diversified Portfolio PROVEN MEDIUM AND CASH FLOW DIVERSIFYING LONG TERM GENERATORS GROWTH STRATEGIES VALUE STRATEGIES Maximize Cash Flow Invest For Growth Optimize and Advance Conventional Shallow Gas Eastern Alberta Heavy Oil…
  5. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 5
    Operating Profile Conventional Shallow Gas Mannville Heavy Oil Viking/Colorado Shallow Shale Gas Eastern Alberta Bitumen Panny Bluesky (Near cold flow) Bitumen Marten Hills (Near cold flow) Bitumen Liege Carbonates (Thermal)…
  6. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 6
    Asset Base Transformation Growth vs Legacy Assets Legacy Shallow Gas Production GOB Deemed Production Diversifying Growth Assets 2007 Dispositions 2008 Dispositions 2009 Dispositions 2010 Dispositions 2011 Dispositions 2012…
  7. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 7
    Commodity Diversification Oil and Liquids Production 4,000 20% 18% 3,500 16% 3,000 14% 2,500 12% BOE/d 2,000 10% 8% 1,500 6% 1,000 4% 500 2% 0 0% Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312…
  8. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 8
    Cash Flow Diversification Oil and Liquids Revenue 28 60% 23 50% 18 40% MM 13 30% 8 20% 3 10% Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412E (3) 0% Oil and NGL Revenue Oil and NGL % of Total…
  9. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 9
    Key Priorities 2012 1. Profitable capital investment in chosen diversifying growth plays to increase oil and NGL production 2. Debt reduction 3. Downside risk management 4. Advance assessment of high impact, longer term growth…
  10. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 10
    2012 Key Priority Diversifying Growth Strategies
  11. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 11
    Eastern Alberta - Conventional Heavy Oil Geographically synergistic with shallow gas assets Mannville Production established from 12 Mannville pools 6 Lloyd, 5 Sparky, 1 Basal Quartz 200 MMbbl Original Oil in Place(1) 10 MMbbl 5%…
  12. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 12
    Eastern Daily Oil Production 3,500 Actual Daily from Field 3,000 Revised Budget 2,500 OiL bbl/d 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Performance Exceeding…
  13. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 13
    Upper Mannville A Pool Lloyd Channel R8W4 R9 OOIP = 33 MMbbls Cumulative to date 282 Mbbls ( < 1% recovery) Booked Ultimate Recoverable Reserves 735 MBBL (2% RF) 00/11-35 00/09-36 7 wells drilled in 2012 (4 to date; 3 planned…
  14. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 14
    Upper Mannville I2I Pool Regional Sparky OOIP = 29 MMbbls Cumulative to date 252 Mbbls 00/01-04 Recovery Factor to date < 1% - Expect 5-8% on Primary 2 wells drilled in 2012 (late August) 11 locations remaining to be drilled based…
  15. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 15
    Sparky New Developments SPARKY MID TYPE LOG 100/02-14-049-07W4/00 00/14-29 24 % DENSITY POROSITY 4 m OIL PAY Mid Sand 00/03-20 00/12-16 00/08-14 Regional Sparky Pool OOIP = 34.4 MMbbl 00/01-14 Cumulative to date…
  16. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 16
    Mannville Heavy Oil Value Potential Projected Economics per Assumptions Drilling Location Capital (D,C & T) 1.05 MM 90/bbl WTI; 20/bbl differential Pricing = 70 Lloydminster heavy blend NPV 10 % 1.05 MM BT 10.50/BOE (first year),…
  17. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 17
    EOR Scheme - Upper Mannville I2I Pool Working Interest 66.7% OOIP = 29 MMbbl Primary Recovery 5% - 8% 1.5 - 2.3 MMbbl Secondary Recovery 10% - 15% 2.9 - 4.4 MMbbl Current reserves booked(1) 0.475 MMbbl Proven 0.675 MMbbl P+P (1)…
  18. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 18
    Enhanced Oil Recovery Scope Pool Name OOIP (1) Cumulative P+P Expected Expected Recoverable production Reserves Primary with Secondary to date booked at Recovery Recovery and EOR 12/31/11 (MMbbl) (MMbbl) (MMbbl) (MMbbl) (MMbbl)…
  19. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 19
    Edson Wilrich Liquids Rich Gas To South Rosevear Plant (15% WI) Pipeline To Edson Deep Cut Plant 36 bbl/MMcf NGLs 16-10 Compressor West Edson Capacity 30 MMcf/d 1-34 Compressor Capacity 10 MMcf/d 2013 - 30 MMcf/d…
  20. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 20
    Wilrich Value Potential Projected Economics per Drilling Location Assumptions Capital (D,C & T) 4.9 MM 4/Mcf; 95/bbl WTI = 66.30/bbl NGLs Pricing (3/Mcf; 105/bbl WTI = 76.50/bbl NGLs) NPV 10 % 3.6 MM BT (2.3 MM BT) Operating Costs…
  21. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 21
    2012 Full Year Capital Budget Total Capital: 75 MM (Increased from 65 MM) H1 2012 H2 2012 Total 2012 Wells Capital Wells Capital Wells Capital 22 gross 12 gross 34 gross Mannville Heavy Oil 27.1 MM 15.7 MM 42.8 MM (22.0 net)…
  22. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 22
    2012 Key Priority Debt Reduction
  23. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 23
    Asset Divestiture Program November 2011: Announced non-core asset divestiture program targeting proceeds of 75 - 150 million for debt reduction and June debenture repayment Q4 2011 & Q1 2012: 66.8 million in non-core dispositions…
  24. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 24
    Warwick Gas Storage 40 Bcf Storage Reservoir 10 Bcf base reserves cushion gas in place Commercial Park and Loan business 5 -11 Bcf additional operating cushion Up to 25 Bcf potential working gas capacity Grass Roots Gas Storage…
  25. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 25
    Warwick Joint Venture and Option Arrangement Sale of 90% partnership interest in Warwick Gas Storage in April 2012 Option to buyback up to an additional 30% equity interest prior to April 25, 2013 30MM Option purchase price reflects…
  26. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 26
    Balance Sheet Current Net Bank Debt: 85 million Revised borrowing base on credit facility - 140 million Next semi-annual redetermination by November 30, 2012 Senior Unsecured Notes: 150 million Coupon Rate - 8.75%; Maturity date -…
  27. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 27
    Debt Reduction Birchwavy Acquisition - 130 MM Profound Acquisition - 81 MM 2012 Disposition Proceeds - 147 MM Viking/ Colorado Shale Edson Acquisition - 71 MM 75 MM Debenture Repayment Office Building Sale - 36 MM Wilrich GOB…
  28. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 28
    2012 Key Priority Manage Downside Risk
  29. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 29
    Commodity Price Risk Management Strategy Enhance or protect funds flow and balance sheet Enhance or protect the economics of an acquisition Enhance or protect capital program economics Capitalize on perceived market…
  30. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 30
    Commodity Price Risk Management Gas Q4 2012: (1) October: 99,250 GJ/day financial and forward physical 3.13/GJ (72% of forecast 2012 gas production ) Nov Dec: 25,000 GJ/day forward physical 2.59/GJ (18% of forecast 2012 gas…
  31. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 31
    2012 Key Priority Optimize and Advance Medium to Long Term Opportunities Elmworth Montney Viking/Colorado Shallow Shale Gas Bitumen
  32. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 32
    Elmworth Montney 92 Gross Sections of Montney Exposure 50/50 Joint Venture with Tourmaline Reserves and Contingent Resource Close to 4 Tcf OGIP (internal estimate) 1 Tcf gross OGIP in Montney B recorded by McDaniel 42 Bcfe net P+P…
  33. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 33
    Elmworth Montney Development Plan POD 2 Initial Development POD C B A Drilled & Flow Tested Drilled & Tested Initial Development Drilled & Tested 50 MMcf/d gross POD Gross Startup Activities per Development Pod 12 Upper…
  34. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 34
    Viking / Colorado Tight Shallow Gas Belly River Play Fairway Vast Tight Shallow Gas Resource Play Cardium/ Colorado Wells Booked Reserves (Viking Only) Perpetual Lands 98 Bcf P+P, primarily undeveloped Viking Proved Undeveloped 903…
  35. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 35
    Colorado Group Free Gas In Place OGIP estimated to average 16 Bcf/section Proven recovery from Cardium zone through horizontal development Potential in up to 6 zones within 290m shale group 2011 Advanced detailed (3G) technical…
  36. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 36
    Bitumen Lands 527 net sections (335,979 net acres) of oil sand leases Various formation targets and ultimate recovery methods 7 potential project areas with varying potential 3 Billion bbls OBIP independently recognized at Liege…
  37. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 37
    Bitumen Panny Bluesky Q1 2011 8m Bitumen Established low rate flow without 10m Bitumen solvent or thermal assistance Average pay thickness 11 m Low viscosity bitumen 15,000 cp 25C Panny Bluesky Resource Assessment (McDaniel P50)…
  38. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 38
    Bitumen Liege Carbonates R 22 R 21 R 20 R19 W4 3 Grosmont carbonate / Leduc wells drilled in GROSMONT NET BITUMEN Q1 2011 to evaluate resource 10 - 20 m T95 Stacking of 3 Grosmont units 30 m pay 20 30 m Leduc reef facies present…
  39. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 39
    2013 Top 5 Strategic Priorities 1. Manage Downside Risk 2. Maximize Value of Mannville Heavy Oil 3. Build Out Low Cost, Liquids-Rich Gas Inventory at Greater Edson 4. Advance and Broaden Portfolio of High Impact Opportunities with…
  40. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 40
    2013 Full Year Capital Budget Total Capital: 75 MM H1 2013 H2 2013 Total 2013 Wells Capital Wells Capital Wells Capital 25 gross 14 gross 39 gross Mannville Heavy Oil 33.6 MM 15.7 MM 49.3 MM (25 net) (12.3 net) (37.3 net) 3…
  41. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 41
    Investment Thesis Asset base repositioning for resource style oil and liquids-focused opportunities successful Mannville heavy oil delivering results and has material secondary recovery growth potential Edson Wilrich liquids-rich gas…
  42. NOVEMBER 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Perpetual Energy Inc – slide 42
    3200, 605 5 Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta CANADA T2P 3H5 800.811.5522 TOLL FREE 403.269.4400 PHONE 403.269.4444 FAX infoperpetualenergyinc.com EMAIL www.perpetualenergyinc.com WEB FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: Susan L. Riddell Rose…

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