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INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited

PTT Public Company Limited · Nov 18, 2014 · 40 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 1
    Industry Recap 2014 and Outlook 2015
  2. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 2
    Contents LNG Petroleum Petrochemical LNG Petroleum Petrochemical 2
  3. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 3
    LNG Presented By: Khun Supawat Tatthong Analyst Liquefied Natural Gas Supply Department 3
  4. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 4
    Key Situation for Spot LNG Market in 2014 LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Fukushima Incident JKM JLC Price volatility NBP HH 2008 : Shale Gas Revolution 2011 : Fukushima Incident Big Bangs in LNG industry 2016 : Physical LNG…
  5. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 5
    Key Situation for Global LNG Market in 2014 LNG Petroleum Petrochemical On May 21st, 2014 38 bcm/year Russia (Gazprom) signed GSA with CNPC (China) Duration : 30 Years from 2019 Volume : 38 Bcm/year of Gas (30 MTPA of LNG) Est.…
  6. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 6
    Key Situation for Global LNG Market in 2014 LNG Petroleum Petrochemical New US FID projects in 2014 4 projects have been approved from FERC to start their construction but only 2 projects, Sabine Pass Train 1-4 and Cameron, did…
  7. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 7
    2015 Outlook : Chinas LNG Demand sustainable or impetuous growth LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Global LNG demand is lower than previous estimate As Global economy slow down China LNG demand growth is less than market estimate…
  8. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 8
    2015 Outlook : Australia LNG export projects On Time or Delay LNG Petroleum Petrochemical NWS LNG , LNG production in all Pluto and Australia projects will Darwin LNG suppress Qatar at Total Capacity 89 mtpa in 2018 26 mtpa…
  9. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 9
    2015 Outlook : Spot LNG Price LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Spot Price 2014 approximately 15 /MMBtu Spot Price 2013 is 16. 23 /MMBtu Spot Price 2015 : 13.5 14.5 /MMBtu Source : PTT & Platts as of 31st Oct 2014 Spot Price…
  10. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 10
    2015 Outlook : Henry Hub Price LNG Petroleum Petrochemical /MMBTU 14 Consensus 12 EIA Outlook 10 EIAs projected HH Price in 2015 is 3.90 USD/MMBTU ( 0.27 USD/MMBTU) 8 HH in 2013 = 3.73 /MMBtu Average HH in 2014 = 4.17 /MMBtu…
  11. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 11
    Contents LNG Petroleum Petrochemical LNG Petroleum Petrochemical 11
  12. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 12
    Petroleum Presented By: Khun Jitwassika Hongthong Silpakul Analyst Market Analysis Division 12
  13. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 13
    Current market situation: Recap 2014 LNG Petroleum Petrochemical /BBL 2012 2013 2014 US Airstrike over IS in Iraq 130 Dubai Seasonality US production hit 30 years Irans sanction lift highest at 8.7 MMBD Resume Libya supply…
  14. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 14
    Current market situation: Fund Flow: Oil price depreciation & Dollar appreciation LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Brent vs. USD 130 90 Stronger Dollar 120 88 110 86 100 84 90 82 80 80 70 Lower Oil Price 60…
  15. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 15
    Current market situation: Oversupplied market about 1 MMBD in 2014 LNG Petroleum Petrochemical 2014 DEMAND = (Non-OPEC + OPEC NGLS/Condensate) + Call On OPEC crude WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND GROWTH 2014 VERSUS 2013 2 1.8 0.19…
  16. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 16
    Current market situation: Downward Revision has been constant theme in IMF worlds GDP forecast LNG Petroleum Petrochemical IMF Global GDP %Growth Forecast Quarterly Publications Global GDP %Growth Forecast 4.50 4.00…
  17. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 17
    Current market situation: OECD DEMAND: A RECOVERY ECONOMY WITH EFFICIENCY GAINS LNG Petroleum Petrochemical GDP AS % OF WORLD GDP GDP AS % OF WORLD GDP GDP AS % OF WORLD GDP 22 % 23% 5% GDP GROWTH (%) GDP GROWTH (%) GDP GROWTH…
  18. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 18
    Current market situation: NON OECD DEMAND: SLOW DEMAND GROWTH WITH GRADUAL SUBSIDIES CUT LNG Petroleum Petrochemical GDP AS % OF WORLD GDP GDP AS % OF WORLD GDP 14 % GDP GROWTH (%) 38 % GDP GROWTH (%) 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015…
  19. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 19
    Current market situation: DEMAND: Middle distillates lead oil demand growth LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Total Oil Demand in 2015 = 92.87 MMBD *Sources: PTT Analysts, PIRA Dataset 19
  20. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 20
    Current market situation: DEMAND: Capacities Shifting to Asia and Middle East LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Annual Regional Capacity Expansion USA + 3.00 Canada 2.50 Europe + FSU 2.00 Latin America 1.50 Africa 1.00…
  21. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 21
    Current market situation: Refinery Margins LNG Petroleum Petrochemical /BBL Singapore Gross Refinery Margins 6 4 2 4.27 4.56 3.86 3.37 0 -2.30 -2.30 -2.36 -2.03 -2 -4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 SG Dubai GRM - Cracking 2015 SG Dubai…
  22. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 22
    Crude oil outlook SUPPLY: Surplus market with better demand in 2015 LNG Petroleum Petrochemical 2015 DEMAND = (Non-OPEC + OPEC NGLS/Condensate) = Call On OPEC crude 2 WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2015 VERSUS 2014 1.8 1.6 1.4 M…
  23. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 23
    Crude Oil Outlook: Dubai price base case scenario LNG Petroleum Petrochemical According to PRISM assumption : 2015 Brent price will average at 94.00/ BBL and with Brent-Dubai spread at 2/BBL, we have come to a consensus that Dubai…
  24. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 24
    Crude Oil Outlook: Whats the PRICE FLOOR Who goes first LNG Petroleum Petrochemical ACCORDING TO PRODUCTION COSTS; NON-OPEC COUNTRIES ARE LIKELY TO GET HIT FIRST IEA Some 98 percent of crude oil and condensates from the United…
  25. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 25
    Crude Oil Outlook: Will shale oil take a hit from lower price LNG Petroleum Petrochemical WITH LOWER OIL PRICE, US OIL SHALE PRODUCTION IS STILL GROWING U.S. SHALE CRUDES AND CONDENSATE PRODUCTION MILLION BARRELS PER DAY Lost…
  26. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 26
    Crude Oil Outlook: Dubai price bull case scenario LNG Petroleum Petrochemical 110 2014 2015 110 105 104 107 105 103 U U 100 100 S 100 S D D / 90 90 / B B B 80 L 80 B L 70 70 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 High sensitivity…
  27. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 27
    Crude Oil Outlook: Dubai price bear case scenario LNG Petroleum Petrochemical 110 U 110 2014 2015 100 S U D 100 100 S / 90 D B 83 B 82 90 / L 78 B 80 74 80 80 B 70 L Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 70 Supply gluts in the…
  28. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 28
    Trend Countries are taking opportunity of lower products prices to revise their subsidy policies LNG Petroleum Petrochemical World's Retail Diesel Price by Pricing Mechanism 4 2.0 USD per liter 3 1.8 2 Level of Subsidies 1.6 1 1.4…
  29. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 29
    Trend Indonesian Price Subsidies: Subsidy Reforms will improve the budget LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Indonesian Subsidized Gasoline 14,000 12,000 Indonesian Rupiahs 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 -…
  30. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 30
    Trend India Price Subsidies: Subsidy Reforms will improve the budget LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Indian Gasoil Prices 90 80 70 60 India Ruppees 50 40 30 20 10 0 Oct/07 Oct/08 Oct/09 Oct/10 Oct/11 Oct/12…
  31. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 31
    Summary LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Slower global economic growth and dollar appreciation putting pressure on commodities prices Global refining capacity growth continues to expand led by Asia and the ME, resulting in increased…
  32. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 32
    Contents LNG Petroleum Petrochemical LNG Petroleum Petrochemical 32
  33. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 33
    Petrochemical Presented By: Khun Ekachai Sirithammasan Division Manager Commercial Risk Management 33
  34. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 34
    Olefins Outlook : Ethylene/PE: Continue in Uptrend, U.S. Crackers to be Delay LNG Petroleum Petrochemical 2015 Ethylene demand growth outpace new capacity PE Operating Rate remain high in 2015 MT Operating Rate MT Operating Rate 10.0 89…
  35. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 35
    Olefins Outlook : Ethylene/PE: Continue in Uptrend, U.S. Crackers to be Delay LNG Petroleum Petrochemical PE Operating Rate remain high in 2015 Ethylene and PE Margins Continue Strong Operating Rate USD/MT 95% 1,800 1,554 1,569…
  36. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 36
    Olefins Outlook : Propylene: New On-purpose Units Pull Operating Rate Down LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Propylene capacity additions mainly from Asia, On-purpose production unit, Coal-based and PDH particularly from China drive Asia…
  37. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 37
    Olefins Outlook : Propylene: New On-purpose Units Pull Operating Rate Down LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Ethylene up cycle and recover demand Propylene Price will be pressure from support Propylene price ratio China self-sufficient…
  38. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 38
    Aromatics Outlook : New PX Capacity Pressures Margin LNG Petroleum Petrochemical More Capacity to Come in 2015 New Paraxylene Capacity in 2015 MT Capacity Addition Demand Growth Operating Rate Unit : MT Nameplate Effective Startup…
  39. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 39
    Aromatics Outlook : BZ Remains Strong Thanks to Shale Gas LNG Petroleum Petrochemical Changing to Lighter Feedstock Reduces BZ Output NEA Turns to be Balanced, U.S./Europe Imports More Capacity Addition Demand Growth Regional Benzene…
  40. INDUSTRY RECAP 2014 AND OUTLOOK 2015 – PTT Public Company Limited – slide 40
    Q&A 41 41

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