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May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute

Canadian Energy Research Institute · May 19, 2015 · 34 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 1
    Canadian Energy Research Institute The Future of the Energy Sector and its Impact on Alberta Peter Howard President Emeritus Canadian Energy Research Institute Sagium Luncheon Series May 19, 2015 Relevant Independent…
  2. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 2
    Canadian Energy Research Institute Overview Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, non- profit research institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental…
  3. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 3
    The Canadian Oil and Gas Industry By the Numbers Relevant Independent Objective 3 www.ceri.ca
  4. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 4
    2014 Facts about Canadian Crude Production: Western Canada (AB,BC,SK,NWT) Conventional LIGHT Crude 723,117 bbls/day Western Canada (AB,BC,SK,NWT) Upgraded Bitumen 959,269 bbls/day Western Canada (AB,BC,SK,NWT) Condensate (C5+) 182,252…
  5. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 5
    2014 Facts about Canadian Natural Gas, NGLs All volumes expressed as average day Production: Western Canada (AB) Marketable Natural gas 9,954 mmcf/day Western Canada (BC) Marketable Natural gas 4,009 mmcf/day Canada (other Provinces)…
  6. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 6
    Western Canadas Energy Sector 2013 Expenditures: 73.50 billion 2013 Expenditures: 59.30 billion 2015 Estimates : 45.00 billion 2015 Estimates : 42.00 billion Royalties Royalties Wages Wages Production Production Operation and…
  7. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 7
    Relevant Independent Objective 7 www.ceri.ca
  8. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 8
    Western Canadian Oil Relevant Independent Objective 8 www.ceri.ca
  9. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 9
    /bbl /bbl 20 40 60 80 - 100 120 140 160 20 40 60 80 - 100 120 140 160 PIA13-9999-OIL PIA17-9999-OIL PIA04-9999-OIL PIA56-9999-OIL PIA39-9999-OIL PIA09-9999-OIL PIA08-2140-OIL PIA14-9999-OIL…
  10. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 10
    Alberta Oil Well Licensing Forecast 2015 Number of oil directed licenses per month (excluding bitumen wells) 500 500 450 450 400 400 350 350 New Oil Licence Count 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 2015:…
  11. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 11
    Western Canada Crude Oil Forecast: July 2015 Conventional, Tight and Shale forecasts (not including oil sands production) 1,600,000 1,500,000 Forecast Crude Oil Production (excl Oil Sands) bbls/day 1,400,000 1,300,000…
  12. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 12
    Oil Sands Projects: Under Construction Project Type Technology Project Status Delayed Start Year Prod. Cap. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Project 1 In Situ SAGD Under Construction 2014 10.00 0.0 1.9 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.5 Project 2 In Situ…
  13. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 13
    WCSB Crude Oil: Where oh where should the oil go North, South, East or West OIL OIL OIL Relevant Independent Objective 13 www.ceri.ca
  14. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 14
    The Forecast for WCSB Oil Relevant Independent Objective 14 www.ceri.ca
  15. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 15
    WCSB Crude Oil Equivalent Volumes vs Transport System Oil Sands Supply Cost and Development Projects (pending July 2015) 8000 8000 7500 7500 7000 7000 6500 6500 6000 6000 5500 5500 Volume (bbls/day) 5000 5000 4500 4500 4000…
  16. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 16
    BC LNG Go or No Go Relevant Independent Objective 16 www.ceri.ca
  17. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 17
    The Asian LNG market Competition Relevant Independent Objective 17 www.ceri.ca
  18. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 18
    Competition to Supply LNG in the Asia-Pacific Basin Russia Alaska LNG Qatar LNG Sakhalin Island LNG Up to 3.5 bcf/day (8 Operating) (now 1.1 bcf/day) (Total 9.5 bcf/day) Kitimat LNG (now 7.5 bcf/day) Pipeline: 3.2 6.4 bcf/day LNG…
  19. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 19
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways LNG Tsunami: US LNG Exports Forecast 18,000 US LNG Exports 16,000 14,000 12,000 Cove Point, Trains 1+2 LNG Export Volume (mmcf/day) Awaiting Start Construction Jordan Cove Trains…
  20. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 20
    Gulf of Mexico 5 Canada 0 Relevant Independent Objective 20 www.ceri.ca
  21. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 21
    Canadian West Coast LNG Export Projects in Development Kitimat LNG (Chevron, Apache) 1.4 Bcf/d Permits received (including Export License); awaiting investment decision BC LNG Export Co-operative 17 Projects on the West Coast 0.125…
  22. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 22
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways Reference Case: LNG Export Potential to the Pacific Basin 60 Lower 48 Sabine Pass (UC) 50 Freeport (UC Q4 2014) Cameron LNG (UC Q4 2014) Oregon LNG (SC 2015) 40 Jordan Cove LNG (SC…
  23. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 23
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways Reference Case: LNG Export Potential to the Pacific Basin 60 BC LNG Projects Lower 48 2 Projects (AFID) Sabine Pass (UC) Up to 3.2 bcf/day 50 Freeport (UC Q4 2014) Maybe Cameron LNG (UC Q4…
  24. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 24
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways Reference Case: LNG Export Potential to the Pacific Basin 60 US Gulf Coast LNG supply or Alaska 50 or East Africa LNG supply or Canadian LNG supply 40 United States Potential…
  25. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 25
    Delivered Supply Cost Estimate Northeast British Columbia Field Supply Cost: 2.25/mcf Pipeline transportation toll: 1.25/mcf Prince Rupert Liquefaction Cost: 6.50/mcf Prince Rupert Loading and Transport to market: 1.20/mcf Tokyo…
  26. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 26
    Where Supplier and Seller Meet Oil-Indexed Pricing Asian LNG pricing Pn = Po*(W1*(F1/F1o) + W2*F2/F2o) LNG Price (/MMBTU) = A*(JCC) + B Pn = Price of LNG determined A = constant that is indexed to oil usually between 70- Po =…
  27. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 27
    The Western Canadian Natural Gas Forecast Relevant Independent Objective 27 www.ceri.ca
  28. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 28
    Alberta Gas Well Licensing Forecast 2015 Number of gas directed licenses per month 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 2015 Forecast of Gas well licenses 1528 down 30% from 2014 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul…
  29. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 29
    British Columbia Gas Well Licensing Forecast 2015 Number of gas directed licenses per month 180 180 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 2015 Forecast of Gas well licenses 1390 UP 11% from 2014 0 0…
  30. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 30
    The Forecast for WCSB Gas Relevant Independent Objective 30 www.ceri.ca
  31. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 31
    North American Natural Gas Pathways: 2015 Alberta exports by major pipeline 9,000 8,000 7,000 Delivered Volume (mmcf/day) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Export:Kingsgate Export:Northern Border…
  32. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 32
    North American Natural Gas Pathways: 2015 Alberta Raw Natural Gas Supply 18,000 Forecast 16,000 14,000 Raw Natural Gas Supply 12,000 10,000 Raw CBM Supply Raw Natural Gas 8,000 Raw Solution Gas 6,000 4,000…
  33. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 33
    Final Thoughts Relevant Independent Objective 33 www.ceri.ca
  34. May 2015 Corporate Presentation – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 34
    Canadian Energy Research Institute Thank you for your time Please visit us at www.ceri.ca Relevant Independent Objective 34 www.ceri.ca

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