2012 Analyst Meeting December 13, 2012 New York, NY
Agenda Introduction Clayton Reasor Overview and Strategy Greg Garland Growing Value Tim Taylor Improving Returns Larry Ziemba Financial Strategy Greg Maxwell Break Closing Comments Greg Garland Q&A 3
Overview and Strategy Greg Garland Chairman and Chief Executive Officer December 13, 2012 New York, NY
Delivering on Commitments Operating well Capturing opportunities Creating shareholder value Maintaining discipline 5
Operating Excellence Safety At Phillips 66 we take the Incidents per 200,000 Hours Worked time to work safely, every job, every day. 2012 YTD 2009 2010 2011 Industry Average See appendix for footnotes. 6
Vision Top safety performance Growing enterprise value Competitive mid-cycle ROCE High-performing organization Leading total shareholder return Providing energy, improving lives 7
Competitive Position Differentiated portfolio Midstream infrastructure Geographic advantages Chemicals and specialties Financial flexibility Free cash flow Capital allocation Balance sheet strength Experienced management 8
Expanding Higher Valued Businesses Growing and shifting portfolio See appendix for footnotes. 9
Strategic Drivers North American oil and gas production revolution Long-term U.S. feedstock and energy cost advantage U.S. exports capture share of growing global demand 10
Structural Shift U.S. Liquids Production Strong growth: 6%+ CAGR MMBbls/day Waterborne crude imports declined 29% since 2005 Forecast Infrastructure investments required See appendix for footnotes. 11
Structural Shift U.S. Advantage U.S. Disadvantage U.S. Advantage Advantaged feedstocks Low energy costs Scale and complexity See appendix for footnotes. 12
U.S. Export Growth Drives Refining Utilization Net Exports Growing global demand MMBbls/day New export capability Net Imports Higher refinery utilization See appendix for footnotes. 13
U.S. Refinery Cracks Maintaining favorable margins Normalizing inland crude /bbl differentials Structural advantage for U.S. refining See appendix for footnotes. 14
Funding Business Investments (B) Midstream Chemicals R&M Refining WRB DCP P66 Midstream CPChem MSO Trans. Capital Program of 3.7 B in 2013 Midstream, Chemicals, and R&M include equity share of DCP Midstream, CPChem, and WRB…
Shareholder Distributions Expanded share repurchase plan to 2 B and Regular dividends announced dividend increase to 1.25/year Secure Increased quarterly dividend to 0.25 Growing Competitive Announced 1 B share repurchase plan…
Growing Value Tim Taylor Executive Vice President, Commercial, Marketing, Transportation and Business Development December 13, 2012 New York, NY
Growing Value Midstream Chemicals Marketing & Specialties U.S. oil and gas production Low cost U.S. feedstocks Adding value and growth drives investment underpin petrochemical enhancing returns expansion 24
Phillips 66 Master Limited Partnership Formation of Phillips 66 MLP Supports infrastructure investment Creates value for shareholders Qualified assets Crude and product pipelines Terminals NGL assets Leverage existing…
Phillips 66 Master Limited Partnership Traditional structure Phillips 66 as general partner (GP) Incentive distribution rights to GP Quarterly distributions to unit holders Minority of LP Interest sold to public Anticipate IPO in…
Midstream DCP Midstream 50/50 JV with Spectra Leading U.S. gatherer and processor Largest U.S. NGL producer Adjusted EBITDA 1.3 B Phillips 66 Midstream 3 NGL fractionators 1 natural gas pipeline Adjusted EBITDA 200 MM Assets…
DCP Midstream Growth Strategy Gathering and Processing Building processing capacity in liquids- rich growth areas 3-4 B Capex NGL Logistics Building NGL infrastructure to extend the value chain and become a full service provider…
DCP Midstream Transformation 2011 2011-2015 2015 Growth CapEx Opportunity 5B to 7B 10 B Assets 15 B+ 62 of plants 70+ Processing volume 5.4 6.0 (Bcf/d) NGL production 400 500+ (MBPD) 1,250 NGL pipelines (mi)* 3,000…
Central Region Integrated Value Delivery 50% proprietary racks Enables maximum refining runs Connectivity to major markets Product Terminals Products Crude Ability to optimize across assets NGL 31
Building Infrastructure Value EBITDA New organic growth opportunities Sand Hills and Southern Hills Pipelines Increased advantaged crude Expansion of existing footprint Increased revenue base with services Grow to more…
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company (CPChem) Delivering Profitable Growth Global Portfolio 36 Manufacturing Sites 2 Research Facilities Sales into over 100 countries Adjusted EBITDA 2.4 B See appendix for footnotes. 33
CPChem Equity Production Capacity Regional Products (Blb/y) 24 (Blb/y) Other NAO Polyethylene Propylene Other Cyclohexane Paraxylene Ethylene Benzene Styrene Olefins / Specialties, Aromatics Polyolefins and…
CPChem Competitive Position Relative Peer Performance Capacity in low-cost feedstock areas 1 2 1 2 4 5 5 1 4 Proprietary technology position 6 Global marketing reach 35
Chemicals Cost Advantage 2013 Ethylene Production Cost Curve (/ton) Middle East and North America are advantaged regions Marginal capacity is naphtha-based CPChems capacity is well-positioned Source: IHS 36
CPChem Middle East CPChem Equity Production Capacity (Blb/y) S-Chem (SCP and JCP) Saudi Polymers Q-Chem and Q-Chem II 37
CPChem U.S. Gulf Coast Growth 2013 NGL fractionation expansion at Sweeny CPChem Equity Production Capacity 2014 1-hexene plant at Cedar Bayou (Blb/y) 2017 Gulf Coast ethane cracker/polyethylene complexes See appendix for…
Business Structure Midstream Chemicals Marketing and Specialties Marketing Lubricants Specialty Coke Growth Returns 39
Continental European Retail Growing Sites and Revenue Top three in market share MiRO Positioned as a value brand Market Share Market efficiency twice the industry 20% 10-20%…
Lubricants Strong production at Excel Paralubes Top marketer of high quality base oil Significant growth with low unit cost 25%+ ROCE See appendix for footnotes. 42
Specialty Coke Needle coke Essential to recycling steel World leader Market growing 2-4%/yr Anode coke Critical to aluminum production Supply 7% of world demand Market growing 5-7%/yr 43
Marketing and Specialties Stable earnings with high returns 2012 YTD ROCE includes global marketing, lubricants and specialty products. See appendix for additional footnotes. 44
Growing Value WE ARE PHILLIPS 66 Investing in Midstream and Chemicals Accessing advantaged feedstocks Building infrastructure around assets Increasing value of refinery streams CREATING VALUE 45
Improving Returns Larry Ziemba Executive Vice President, Refining, Project Development and Procurement December 13, 2012 New York, NY
Operating Excellence Safety and Environmental Total Refining Recordable Rate Refining Emissions Incidents per 200,000 Hours Worked (Lb/MBbl) 0.75 Industry 250 200 0.5 150 100 0.25 50 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2002 2004…
Operating Excellence Reliability Strong performance versus industry See appendix for footnotes. 48
Refining Regions Western / Pacific Central Corridor Gulf Coast Atlantic Basin / Europe Crude Capacity (MBD) United States FD BI Ireland BW WG HU SF WR United LA PC Kingdom BG Global Realized Crack AL (/bbl) LC SW…
Improving Refining Returns Increasing advantaged crude Improving yields Expanding export capability Controlling costs Investing in high return small projects 400 basis point improvement in refining ROCE 50
Increasing Advantaged Crude Throughput Brent 51
Processing Additional Advantaged Crude 52
Processing Additional Advantaged Crude See appendix for footnotes. 53
Increasing Advantaged Crude Throughput Domestic Crude Pricing Basis Brent LLS/ANS Heavy Canadian WTI/WTS 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013E Long-term Targeting 90% advantaged crude long-term See appendix for footnotes. 54
Improving Yields Distillate Yield (Percentage of processed inputs) Industry 40.8% Global distillate demand growth 39.9% 40.2% 39.5% Strong distillate yields 37.1% 37.2% 35.8% Eleven refineries with low capital…
Expanding Product Export Capability Increase placement options 100 MBD new export capability 30% of coastal clean products Capture global demand growth Growing export capability supports high utilization 56
Controlling Costs Ten of fifteen refineries benchmark in the top third Good reliability supporting competitive costs Targeting energy efficiency and turnaround improvements Includes Phillips 66 Refining total controllable…
Maintaining Capital Discipline Sustaining spend below depreciation Selective high return projects yielding 30+% AARR Increasing advantaged crude Improving yields Growing export capability See appendix for footnotes. 58
Improving Refining ROCE Return on Capital Employed Driving operating excellence + 400 basis points Increasing advantaged crude Improving yields and export capability Maintaining capital and cost discipline Mid-cycle Adv Crude…
Financial Strategy Greg Maxwell Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer December 13, 2012 New York, NY
Financial Strategy Capital allocation discipline Cost management focus Balance sheet strength Creating shareholder value 61
Financial Performance Differentiated portfolio Midstream Chemicals Refining and Marketing Strong earnings and returns focus 2012E adjusted earnings and ROCE based on analysts estimates. 62
2012 Financial Performance by Segment Midstream Chemicals R&M 2012 YTD ROCE PSX 31% LYB 20% WLK 16% XOM 14% DOW 8% See appendix for footnotes. 63
Value Capture Optimize 66 Pre-Tax Value Capture (MM) 170 MM of dis-synergies Optimize 66 initiative launched 2013 cost savings exceed 200 MM Continuing cost and value focus 64
Capital Allocation 2010 2.1 B Sustaining capital 2011 5.0 B Growth capital 2012E 4.7 B Increasing distributions 2013E 4.5 B Financial flexibility Dividends Sustaining Capital Cash from Operations 2012E and 2013E cash from…
Phillips 66 Capital Expenditures By Segment By Type (B) (B) 2.0 2.0 Corporate Corporate 1.5 1.5 Growth Midstream MS Pipelines 1.0 1.0 D&A 0.9 0.5 R&M 0.5 Sustaining 0.0 0.0 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E See appendix for…
2013 Capital Program (B) 4.0 3.5 PSX 3.0 CPChem 2.5 DCP 2.0 3.7 PSX 1.5 CPChem DCP 1.0 WRB 0.5 1.0 0.0 PSX Sustaining JV Sustaining Corporate Growth Total 67
Returns to Shareholders 2012 Distributions as % of CFO Total Shareholder Return Dividends 61% Share Repurchases Reflects 0.3125 / Share Dividends Average 22% Average = 35% S&P 100 = 2% TSO VLO PSX MPC DOW 2012 cash from…
Debt and Liquidity Debt Maturity Profile Liquidity (B) (B) Total Committed Liquidity Facilities = 5.2 B 3.5 1.6 1.5 Available Committed Liquidity Facilities = 5.0 B 0.6 0.7 Letters of Credit Issued Revolver Facility…
Capital Structure Equity, debt, and debt-to-capital ratio estimates based on analysts earnings estimates. See appendix for additional estimates. 71
Balance Sheet Strength Net Debt-to-Capital Ratio 20% 30% debt-to-capital target 8 B debt at end of 2012 41% Investment grade credit ratings: Average = 16% Moodys Baa1 21% 15% S&P BBB 5% -1% DOW VLO PSX TSO MPC See appendix…
2013 Guidance 2013 B Corporate Segment Net Expense 0.5 Turnaround Costs 0.4 Depreciation and Amortization Expense 1.0 Cash Capital Expenditures 1.8 84
2013 Sensitivities Worldwide R&M (assuming 95% refining utilization rate) Net Income MM 1/BBL Increase in Refining Margin 440 1/BBL Increase Impacts in Crude due to Actual Price Crude Impact on Feedstock Secondary Differing…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations Millions of Dollars 2012 YTD 2011 2010 2009 Consolidated Earnings (loss) 3,416 4,775 735 476 Adjustments: Net (gain) loss on asset sales/share issuance (106) (1,545) (116) (120) Impairments 399 318…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations Millions of Dollars 2012 YTD 2011 2010 2009 R&M Earnings (loss) 3,232 3,848 146 71 Adjustments: Net (gain) loss on asset sales (106) (1,545) (116) (32) Impairments 69 318 1,118 116 Pending claims and…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations Millions of Dollars 2012 YTD 2011 2010 2009 Refining Earnings (loss) 2,839 1,533 (466) (454) Adjustments: Net (gain) loss on asset sales (104) 81 - - Impairments 42 318 1,110 - Pending claims and…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations Millions of Dollars 2012 YTD 2011 2010 2009 Marketing, Specialties and Other Earnings (loss) 393 2,315 612 525 Adjustments: Net (gain) loss on asset sales (2) (1,626) (116) (32) Impairments 27 - 8…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD Phillips 66 - ROCE Numerator (MM) Net income 479 740 4,780 3,421 After-tax interest expense 1 1 11 111 GAAP ROCE earnings 480 741 4,791 3,532 Special Items 21 1,024 (1,184) 659…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations ROCE - 2012 YTD Annualized R&M Midstream Chemicals Numerator (MM) Net income 3,237 (79) 577 After-tax interest expense - - - GAAP ROCE earnings 3,237 (79) 577 Special Items 156 303 157 Adjusted ROCE…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations 2010 2011 2012 YTD Clean Products Marketing - ROCE Numerator (MM) Net income 518 352 205 After-tax interest expense - - - GAAP ROCE earnings 518 352 205 Adjustments: Net (gain) loss on asset sales…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations 2010 2011 2012 YTD Marketing and Specialties - ROCE Numerator (MM) Net income 706 632 395 After-tax interest expense - - - GAAP ROCE earnings 706 632 395 Adjustments: Net (gain) loss on asset sales…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations Marketing and Specialties EBITDA Millions of Dollars 2010 2011 2012 YTD Net Income 706 632 394 Income taxes 449 378 318 Net interest expense (40) (32) - Depreciation and amortization 86 91 64…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations Transportation EBITDA Millions of Dollars 2012 YTD Net Income 115 Income taxes 1 Net interest expense - Depreciation and amortization 59 2012 YTD Annualized EBITDA 175 233 95
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations DCP Midstream, LLC Millions of Dollars 2010 2011 2012 YTD Net income 619 924 429 Income taxes 5 3 2 Net interest expense 253 213 146 Depreciation and amortization 413 449 224 EBITDA 1,290 1,589…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations Non-DCP P66 Midstream Millions of Dollars 2012 YTD Net income (220) Income taxes (114) Net interest expense - Depreciation and amortization 1 EBITDA (333) Adjustments Impairments 480 2012 YTD…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations CPChem Millions of Dollars 2010 2011 2012 YTD Net Income 1,388 1,970 1,703 Income taxes 42 58 51 Net interest expense 62 18 10 Depreciation and amortization 255 258 283 EBITDA 1,747 2,304 2,047…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations CPChem Millions of Dollars 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD Net income 7 626 853 1,349 719 276 615 1,388 1,970 1,703 Average Assets 6,175 6,557 6,916 7,040 7,176 6,954 7,047 7,717…
PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations Net-Debt-to-Capital Millions of Dollars 9/30/2012 Total Debt 7,978 Total Cash and Cash Equivalents (4,430) Net Debt (Total Debt less Total Cash) 3,548 Total Equity 20,606 Net-Debt-to-Capital Ratio:…