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BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc

BP Plc · Mar 20, 2015 · 41 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 1
    Focus on North America, February 2014 bp.com/energyoutlook BPstats 2014 BP p.l.c.
  2. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 2
    Contents Page Regional energy trends 4 Fuel by fuel 19 Carbon emissions and the fuel mix 36 Energy Outlook 2035 Focus on North America 4 2014 BP p.l.c.
  3. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 3
    North American energy use rises slowly from todays levels... Consumption by region Ten year increments by region Billion toe Billion toe 3 Canada & 0.6 Mexico Canada & Mexico US 0.4 US 2 0.2 1 0.0 -0.2 1975 1985 1995…
  4. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 4
    but peaks in 2030 as US demand begins to contract North American energy demand increases by 5% between 2012 and 2035, with growth averaging 0.2% per annum (p.a.). Energy use contracts by 0.2% p.a. during 2005-15, but growth returns…
  5. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 5
    Falling transport demand is offset by the other sector... Consumption by sector Ten year increments by sector Billion toe Billion toe 3 0.6 Industry Transport 0.4 Other 2 Transport Other 0.2 Electricity share 1 0.0…
  6. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 6
    as electrification of the economy continues Energy use in the transport sector contracts by 12% from 2012 to 2035, declining steadily throughout the outlook. Regional demand in 2035 will be the lowest since 1993. Declines are driven…
  7. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 7
    The slowdown in transport curtails oil demand... Consumption by fuel Ten year increments by fuel Billion toe Billion toe 3 0.8 Renew.* Renew.* Hydro Hydro Nuclear Nuclear 0.5 Coal 2 Coal Gas Oil 0.3 Gas 1 0.0 Oil -0.3…
  8. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 8
    while natural gas and renewables gain market share The fuel outlook is mixed, with declines in oil (-0.6% p.a.), coal (-0.6% p.a.), and nuclear (-0.7% p.a.) more than offset by gains in natural gas (0.8% p.a.), hydro (0.2% p.a.), and…
  9. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 9
    North American production continues to expand Production by region New energy forms Billion toe Billion toe 4 Canada & 2 Renewables in power 50% Mexico US Shale gas 3 Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels Coal 2 Non-OECD 1 25% Gas %…
  10. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 10
    ...led by unconventional oil & gas and renewables North American energy production grows by 1% p.a. from 2012 to 2035, compared to a global average of 1.5% p.a. Production by 2035 will rise by 26% from to todays already-record…
  11. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 11
    Energy is decoupling from economic growth GDP and energy Shares of primary energy Trillion 2012 Billion toe 40 10 50% Oil 40% 31 7 GDP 30% Gas 22 20% 4 Coal 13 10% Energy Hydro (RHS) Nuclear Renewables* 4 1 0% 1965 2000…
  12. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 12
    and the fuel mix is slowly shifting away from fossil fuels Energy consumption grows less rapidly than the regional economy, with GDP growth averaging 2.4% p.a. 2012-35. As a result energy intensity, the amount of energy required per…
  13. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 13
    The power sector takes an increasing share of energy Inputs to power as a share of Primary inputs to North total primary energy American power 50% 100% World Renew. North America Gas 75% Nuclear Oil 40% 50% Coal 25% Hydro…
  14. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 14
    and plays a key role in shaping the fuel mix One of the longest established trends in energy is the increasing role of the power sector. The share of primary energy devoted to power generation rises in industrializing as well as in…
  15. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 15
    North America is unique among regions Primary energy net balances Regional fossil fuel balances Billion toe Billion toe 4 FSU 0.5 Coal Africa Gas 2 0.3 Oil S&C America Middle 0.0 0 East North America -2 -0.3 Asia Europe -4…
  16. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 16
    in that it switches from being a net importer to exporter Regional energy imbalances suggest that trading relationships will change significantly by 2035. North America switches from being a net importer of energy to a net exporter…
  17. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 17
    Page Regional energy trends 4 Fuel by fuel 19 Carbon emissions and the fuel mix 36 Energy Outlook 2035 Focus on North America 19 2014 BP p.l.c.
  18. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 18
    Falling transport demand and rising unconventionals... Liquids demand by sector Liquids supply by source Mb/d Mb/d 30 30 Can/Mex Biofuels Other 20 20 US tight oil US Other Mexico Can/Mex Oil sands 10 Transport 10 Other Canada…
  19. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 19
    are upending North American oil balances Liquids consumption is likely to drop by 2.5 Mb/d to 20.5 Mb/d by 2035 with declines in US transport accounting for more than all the net decline. By 2035, US demand will be 24% lower than the…
  20. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 20
    Oil trade continues to shift from West to East US Regional imbalances China Mb/d Mb/d Mb/d 30 75 Middle East FSU 30 Net imports Net imports Tight oil Europe Asia Pacific Tight oil 25 Other supply 50 Africa S&C America 25 Other…
  21. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 21
    as Asian imports surge amid North Americas transformation In the US, the increase in tight oil production coupled with declining demand will continue the dramatic shift in import dependence. Imports are set to decline from a peak of…
  22. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 22
    North American transport demand declines Transport demand by fuel Five year increments by fuel Billion toe Mtoe 0.8 20 Electricity 0.7 10 Gas 0.6 0 Coal 0.5 Biofuels -10 0.4 Oil: -20 0.3 Road -30 0.2 Non-road 0.1 -40 0.0…
  23. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 23
    as prices and policy boost vehicle fuel economy North American energy consumption in transport declines (-0.6% p.a.) between 2012 and 2035 (after growing by 0.8% p.a. 1990-2012), primarily due to accelerating gains in fuel economy.…
  24. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 24
    Policy and technology enable efficiency improvements Fuel economy of new cars Vehicles sales by type Miles per gallon* 100 100% Plug-ins incl. EU BEVs US light vehicles 80 80% China Full hybrid 60 60% Mild hybrid 40 40%…
  25. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 25
    as the vehicle fleet gradually shifts to hybrids Fuel economy has been improving in recent years at rates not seen since the period after the first oil price shock in 1973. Recent gains have been driven by consumer reaction to rising…
  26. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 26
    US natural gas use increases in all sectors Gas demand by sector Gas supply by source Bcf/d Bcf/d 120 120 Can/Mex Can/Mex Shale 90 90 US Other * US Shale 60 US Industry 60 US Other Can/Mex Other US Power 30 30 0 0 1990…
  27. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 27
    while shale gas increasingly dominates supply North American natural gas demand will reach 106 Bcf/d by 2035 (+18.6 Bcf/d). US growth will be in all sectors: industry (5 Bcf/d), transport (3.9 Bcf/d), other (3.4 Bcf/d), and power…
  28. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 28
    Differences in the prospects for unconventional gas Sources of gas supply by region Europe China Bcf/d North America Bcf/d Bcf/d 120 120 120 Net pipeline import Net LNG import 100 100 100 Shale gas Other unconventional 80 80 80…
  29. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 29
    help shape regional supply patterns North American unconventional gas production growth will more than meet rising consumption, making the region a net exporter by 2017. The US is set to become a net exporter in 2018, with net…
  30. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 30
    The shale revolution in the US provides an example US oil and gas supply Gas share of US sector demand Billion toe 1.6 45% Industry 1.2 Oil 30% Power 0.8 15% Gas 0.4 Transport 0.0 0% 1970 1983 1996 2009 2022 2035 1965 2000…
  31. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 31
    of how energy markets adjust US shale gas output will grow by 4.3% p.a. between 2012 and 2035, enabling overall US natural gas production to rise by 45%. This is causing a series of adjustments in energy markets: some already…
  32. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 32
    Coal demand continues to decline in North America Coal demand by sector Non-fossil fuel demand Billion toe Billion toe 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 Renewables Can/Mex 0.4 0.4 Biofuels US Other Hydro US Power 0.2 0.2 Nuclear 0.0 0.0…
  33. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 33
    while renewables expand in power and transport Coal consumption falls (-0.6% p.a.) from 2012 to 2035 in North America, with demand in 2035 13% lower than it is today despite overall growth of 14% for power demand (the sector in which…
  34. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 34
    Page Regional energy trends 4 Fuel by fuel 19 Carbon emissions and the fuel mix 36 Energy Outlook 2035 Focus on North America 36 2014 BP p.l.c.
  35. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 35
    CO2 emissions from energy use continue to rise globally Emissions by region Emissions per capita Billion tonnes CO2 Tonnes CO2 45 25 36 20 US 27 15 IEA 450 Scenario EU China 18 10 Non-OECD World 9 OECD 5 North India America…
  36. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 36
    but decline in North America Global CO2 emissions from energy use grow by 29% or 1.1% p.a. over the forecasting period. Policies to curb emissions continue to tighten, and the rate of growth of emissions declines, but emissions…
  37. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 37
    The power sector is the main driver of fuel mix changes Share of power sector fuel consumption North America EU China Other non-OECD Asia 90% Coal Gas 60% 30% 0% 1990 1990 2035 1990 2035 1990 20351990 2035 1990 2035…
  38. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 38
    with different regional outcomes for coal-gas competition The power sector, where all fuels compete, is the largest and most diversified driver of the global fuel mix. The global competition between coal and natural gas gives an…
  39. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 39
    Energy efficiency is restraining North American emissions GDP, energy and emissions Emissions growth 2012 to 2035 Index: 1990 = 100 Billion tonnes CO2 300 4 3 GDP Energy intensity 2 200 1 Fuel mix 0 Energy Projected CO2…
  40. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 40
    but fuel mix changes remain a missed opportunity The widening gap between GDP and energy consumption illustrates the impact of falling energy intensity; and the gap between energy and CO2 emissions reflects changes in carbon…
  41. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 41
    Conclusion Meeting the global/North American energy challenge Sufficient and available Yes new energy sources and efficiency improvements North America leads the way Secure and reliable Mixed improving for North America, a…

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