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2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA

Total SA · Sep 10, 2008 · 47 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 1
    2008 Mid-year outlook Investor Relations September 2008
  2. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 2
    Long-term energy supply and demand fundamentals Investor Relations www.total.com 3C2324
  3. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 3
    Strong fundamentals for the oil price Oil price relative to marginal cost of supply* /b 140 Underlying oil price necessary Demand response to oil price Brent for 12.5% IRR on : 120 Canadian oil sands 113 /b Deep/ultra-deep…
  4. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 4
    Recent pressure on refining and petrochemicals margins European conversion margins Petrochemical margins 400 Brent 400 Naphtha price Diesel conversion margins* Gasoline conversion margins* European base 100 base 100…
  5. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 5
    Long-term energy supply constraints will curb energy demand growth Energy supply Energy demand Mboe/d Mboe/d 350 350 1.2%/y Other renewables Biomass 1.9%/y 250 Nuclear 250 Non-OECD Coal +1.8%/y 150 150 Gas 75% fossil fuels,…
  6. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 6
    Significant resources yet to be produced Oil resources Gas resources 3,000 Bboe 100 years Unconventional resources oil shale, shale gas, coal bed methane, tight gas 2,000 Bboe 70 years 115 years Heavy oil 95 years 50 years New…
  7. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 7
    Oil production to remain below 100 Mb/d through 2030 Oil production CIS OPEC Kazakhstan 42% 45% 55% 60% share 07 30(e) Mb/d 100 OECD (excluding heavy oil) Asia 35% 60% 60 Heavy oil 07 30(e) 07 30(e) Americas Canada…
  8. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 8
    Oil demand growth mainly driven by transportation and petrochemicals Oil products demand Demand by sector Europe and CIS Mb/d CIS 100 Transportation +25% 07 30(e) 50 Petrochemicals +50% North America Industrial +5% Asia…
  9. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 9
    Gas production to grow by 1.5% per year through 2030 Gas production Gas production CIS Bcf/d 400 Russia LNG +180% 07 30(e) 200 Atlantic Basin Pipeline +25% Bcf/d 150 Asia 07 15(e) 30(e) 50 07 30(e) Gas demand by sector 07…
  10. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 10
    LNG : fastest growing segment of the industry Global LNG supply / demand LNG and gas prices Mt/y /MMBtu 600 +5% per year 25 on average Oil parity over the long term 20 3-5 /MMBtu 400 Other Troll demand 15 New Asian contracts…
  11. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 11
    Capturing the benefits of the environment Investor Relations www.total.com 3C2324
  12. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 12
    Growing profits in a changing and more volatile environment Upstream net operating income () Net income () 300 Chevron 200 Total Total Shell Chevron Brent Exxon Exxon +88% Shell 200 BP BP 150 base 100 2004 2005 2006 2007…
  13. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 13
    Sustained Capex intensity and dynamic dividend policy Investment program Dividend (Capex / Capital employed) (/share) % 200 Total () BP Total +17% per year 25 Total () on average Chevron Exxon Chevron Shell 150 20 BP Shell…
  14. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 14
    Leveraging competitive advantages Technical costs* Average cost Resilient low cost production base 2.6 3.8 4.7 4.8 advantage in /boe Benefiting from legacy positions in giant fields and disciplined cost management /boe Shell 18…
  15. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 15
    Integrated growth strategy well adapted to market trends Adapting Downstream and Petrochemicals in Europe Capital employed* Strengthening LNG Developing position leadership 58% 65% Upstream in heavy oil B 100 Other Accelerating…
  16. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 16
    Growing Upstream in a new environment Investor Relations Investor Relations www.total.com 3C2324
  17. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 17
    Outlook for sustained production growth over the long-term Production growth in a 100 /b scenario Upstream average sensitivity to oil price (entitlement production and technical production*) (2009-2013(e)) +10 /b Brent in a 80-100 /b…
  18. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 18
    Growing Upstream value Upstream results* vs. hydrocarbon prices Net present value** of proved and probable reserves (2003-1H08) /boe Resources 20 Results vs. average hydrocarbon price FEED*** Results vs. Brent Development…
  19. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 19
    Accelerated growth of Upstream portfolio Additions to reserve potential since early 2004 through acquisitions and negotiations Years of production* Joslyn Synenco Victoria 7.5 3.7 3.7 4.7 4.0 Shtokman 2004-Aug. 08 business…
  20. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 20
    More than 4 Bboe from exploration since 2004 Main exploration programs Current exploration potential* New themes on proved basins Appraising giant Maximizing value from mature areas Condensates heavy oil resources North Sea,…
  21. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 21
    Maintaining discipline and adapting oil price assumptions Close to 11 Bboe added Upstream development Expected profitability of major post-2010 projects to reserve potential since early 2004* Capex Deep and ultra-deep offshore…
  22. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 22
    Strong cost management Technical costs* Strengthening pre-project studies and engineering to control costs +2.1 12.4 Benefiting from new developments and existing operations Expl Standardization of FPSOs, pooling of drilling…
  23. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 23
    Recent start-ups raising quality of Upstream portfolio Dalia (40%) Rosa (40%) Dolphin (24.5%) Moho Bilondo (53.5%) Jura (100%) Plateau : 240 kb/d Plateau : 150 kb/d Plateau : 500 kboe/d Plateau : 90 kb/d Plateau : 50 kboe/d…
  24. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 24
    Next wave of growth projects on track Akpo (24%) Yemen LNG (39.6%) Qatargas II TB (16.7%) Tahiti (17%) Tombua Landana (20%) Plateau : 225 kboe/d Plateau : 190 kboe/d Plateau : 290 kboe/d Plateau : 135 kb/d Plateau : 130 kboe/d…
  25. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 25
    Enhancing value from mature areas : North Sea North Sea : managing the decline rate Extending life of legacy assets, improving North Sea at 6-7% per year on average reliability and valorizing recent discoveries Planned kboe/d*…
  26. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 26
    Preparing the next generation of building blocks Mboe/d 1.0 Deep offshore CLOV Girassol 0.5 Akpo Egina Dalia 2007 production in Africa Pazflor Block 32 Rosa Usan Moho North Moho Bilondo TOT XOM MTPS LNG Mt/y 30 Angola LNG…
  27. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 27
    Large and diversified portfolio of projects Projects Country Capacity (kboe/d) Share Op** Status Victoria Norway Liq/Gas Study 40% 3 Appr 2013- Pars LNG Iran LNG 300 30% 3 Study 2016(e) Shah Deniz FF Azerbaidjan Gas 475 10% Study…
  28. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 28
    Changing scale in the LNG chain Investor Relations www.total.com 3C2324
  29. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 29
    Diversified and well-positioned portfolio of LNG assets Yemen LNG (39.6%) Qatargas II TrB (16.7%) Angola LNG (13.6%) NLNG T7 (15%) Brass LNG (17%) Shtokman (25%) Ichthys LNG (24%) Capacity : 6.7 Mt/y Capacity : 7.8 Mt/y Capacity :…
  30. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 30
    Increasing value creation through well balanced exposure across the LNG chain Sales** by destination Purchases by destination Mt/y Mt/y Liquid markets 330 cargoes* 20 20 Liquid markets From FEED 240 230 North or under study…
  31. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 31
    Totals position on global LNG market to triple by 2016 Totals position on LNG market Main competitors LNG positions*** Mt/y Mt/y Shell Exxon BP Chevron BG 40 40 10 Mt/y 30 Mt/y 30 LNG purchases 30 other 20 from equity 20 LNG…
  32. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 32
    Rapidly growing contribution of LNG to Totals profitability Profitability of Totals LNG portfolio 1H08 LNG earnings : 1.5 B B Approximately 13% of Totals production 15 More than 15% of Upstream net operating income Approximately…
  33. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 33
    Integrated model provides diversity of business opportunities Investor Relations Investor Relations - www.total.com 3C2324
  34. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 34
    Benefiting from the integrated business model Adapting positions on the Atlantic Basin Main developments Upgrading and gradually restructuring refining and petrochemicals to adapt to market changes Port Arthur coker Jubail Canadian…
  35. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 35
    Adapting refining and petrochemicals on the Atlantic Basin Main development projects Capex and cash flow resulting from main projects* +215 kb/d of diesel between 2006 and 2016(e) B 1.5 Refinery Optimization Upgrading on…
  36. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 36
    Building strategic partnerships with producing countries to valorize selective feedstocks Main refining and petrochemicals growth projects Capex and additional cash flow* Algeria ethane cracker Qatar ethane crackers B 1,100 kt/y…
  37. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 37
    Integrating Upstream-Downstream in the Canadian oil sands to maximize value creation Production capacity and development Capex* Canadian oil sands in Upstream value** (% of Upstream NPV) kb/d Capex NPV NPV bitumen (B/y) WACC 0%…
  38. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 38
    Downstream and Chemicals offering strong resilience thanks to 11 key assets Downstream profitability* Normandy Antwerp - Vlessingen integrated platform integrated platform Leuna complex % 30 French & Benelux Port Arthur…
  39. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 39
    Sustainable business model Investor Relations Investor Relations - www.total.com 3C2324
  40. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 40
    Oil and gas portfolio provides more than 40 years of resources Resources by region and technology* Resources* : 40 Bboe (at December 31, 2007) Europe and CIS Other gas Resources* 40 years LNG Americas Other liquids 2P…
  41. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 41
    Increasing acceptability to secure long-term opportunities Russia Partnership with Gazprom on Shtokman Profit sharing Canada R&D / CO2 in Totals Upstream portfolio* Local upgrader PSCs represent 30% of portfolio** Qatar China…
  42. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 42
    Strengthening the portfolio while contributing to energy efficiency and limitation of CO2 emissions Flaring reduction* Improving energy efficiency Innovative products and services Estimated savings of approx. 150 M/y To reduce fuel…
  43. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 43
    Anticipating tomorrows needs Increasing leverage to R&D Capital employed in new energies Environmental Resources : 35% B performance : 10% Exploration efficiency Air, water, biodiversity EOR 2 CO2 capture and Oil sands…
  44. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 44
    Creating long-term value Investor Relations Investor Relations - www.total.com 3C2324
  45. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 45
    Keeping investment discipline while growing the company Profitability* Capital employed* (ROACE) % 40 Exxon Not-yet producing 30 Total Total Other majors +47% +30% Chevron Producing 20 BP base 100 Shell 10 2004 2005…
  46. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 46
    Strong cash generation and efficient balance sheet More than 110 B cash flow allocated to investments and return to shareholders over 2004-2008(e)* Net-debt-to-equity ratio % Buybacks 35 15 B Intensive investment program…
  47. 2008 MID YEAR OUTLOOK – Total SA – slide 47
    Unique set of attributes to create long-term value for shareholders Dividend yield vs. Price-Earnings ratio (at end of period) Demonstrated ability to anticipate 5.5% and adapt to a changing environment 10 Price-Earnings ratio…

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