Driven to Create Value Analyst and Investor Day December 9, 2014
Leadership Team Greg Goff President and CEO Keith Casey Steven Sterin CJ Warner Daryl Schofield Phil Anderson EVP, EVP, EVP, Strategy and SVP, President, Tesoro Operations Chief Financial Officer Business Development…
Todays Agenda Tesoros Competitive Advantage Greg Goff Delivering West Coast Improvements Keith Casey Capturing Margin Improvements CJ Warner Growing Logistics Phil Anderson Financial Overview Steven Sterin Summary Greg Goff 4
Objectives to Drive Competitive Advantage Create the leading refining, marketing and logistics business in our strategic footprint Drive towards an incident free workplace Deliver significant EBITDA growth Achieve growth through…
Tesoros Business Today Kenai, AK Anacortes, WA 72 MBD 120 MBD Mandan, ND 71 MBD Key Metrics 2014 Salt Lake City, UT Refining Capacity (MBD) 850 Martinez, CA 58 MBD Refining Complexity 11.5 166 MBD Tesoro Logistics LP (%) 35…
Strategic Priorities Operational efficiency and effectiveness Safety and reliability Cost leadership System improvements Commercial excellence Financial discipline Value-driven growth High performing culture Enduring…
High Performing Culture Superior execution drives industry leading results Exceptional people drive continuous improvements Powerful collaboration among employees and across sites Capture opportunities across the value chain…
Strong Safety, Environmental Performance Personal Safety Incident Rates Process Safety Incident Rates Air Emissions2 OSHA Recordable Rate API Tier 1 and 2 Tons Per One Million Barrels of Throughput 0.8 0.7 88 76 76 65 0.5 0.5…
Todays Agenda Tesoros Competitive Advantage Greg Goff Delivering West Coast Improvements Keith Casey Capturing Margin Improvements CJ Warner Growing Logistics Phil Anderson Financial Overview Steven Sterin Summary Greg Goff…
West Coast Market is Attractive California market conditions continue to improve Substantial value creation opportunities Expect delivery of 250 million California synergies in 2014 Synergies on track to exceed 500 million by 2017…
PADD V Market Dynamics Los Angeles 321 Crack Spread3 20 /bbl PADD V Supply Demand Balance 16 Average MBD1 Production2 Demand Exports Gasoline 1,616 1,526 43 12 Diesel 588 514 124 Jet 427 438 - 8 Total 2,631 2,478 167…
Improving California Economy Unemployment Rate California Vehicle Miles Traveled 16 Percent 186 Billions of Miles 12 California 180 8 United States 174 4 0 168 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014…
Tesoro West Coast Advantages Feedstock optimization across 720 MBD of refining capacity Excellent waterborne and land- based logistics capability Flexibility to source and leverage advantaged feedstocks Highly integrated retail…
West Coast OPEX Improvements Total Operating Expense Gap (Non-energy)1 /bbl 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F California2 1.70 1.10 0.85 0.69 0.62 Pacific Northwest NA 0.05 0.30 0.43 0.21 Delivering lower operating costs through…
Delivering California Synergies Cumulative Synergy Improvements in millions 500 + Realizing synergies earlier 380 - 420 with lower capital 335 - 365 Delivering sustainable 240 - 260 synergies across the value Updated Synergies…
Delivering Sustainable Synergies Expected 2015 Synergies Focus on high-return, in millions short-payback projects Operating Cost Improvement 40 Smart engineering reduces overall CAPEX requirements 125 Feedstock Advantage…
Creating Competitive Advantage Los Angeles Integration and Compliance Project Provides 30 to 40 MBD of gasoline and distillate yield flexibility Improves feedstock flexibility Decommissions a fluid catalytic cracking unit Permit…
Todays Agenda Tesoros Competitive Advantage Greg Goff Delivering West Coast Improvements Keith Casey Capturing Margin Improvements CJ Warner Growing Logistics Phil Anderson Financial Overview Steven Sterin Summary Greg Goff…
Capturing Margin Improvements Leverage changes in crude oil and product flows Positioned to capitalize on advantaged crude oil production Optimize refinery flexibility and product yield Access regional and global premium product…
Optimizing our Value Chain Feedstock Inbound Logistics Refining Outbound Logistics Product Sales Acquisition Advantaged Feedstock Flexibility & Optimization Product Channels Expect to deliver additional 130 to 170 million of…
Processing More Advantaged Crude Oil Tesoro Consolidated Tesoro Crude Oil Throughput Index 6% Foreign Heavy 10% 9% 16% 9% Foreign Light 19% 25% California 12% 15% ANS 26% 15% 20% 48% 10% 20% 50% WTI1 36% 31% 23%…
Increasing Access to Advantaged Crude Oil Provide reliable and cost advantaged access to feedstocks 25 MBD heavy crude oil to California refineries 10 to 15 MBD Waxy Crude oil to Salt Lake City Advantaged Crude Throughput 5 MBD…
Vancouver Energy Delivering Advantaged Crude Oil to West Coast Up to 360 MBD Rail-to-Marine Terminal 50/50 joint venture Port of Vancouver Marine Terminal Commercial advantages Creates more competitive crude oil environment on…
Salt Lake City Conversion Project Waxy Crude oil processing up to 26 MBD Increases total throughput by 4 MBD Enhances clean product yields Annual EBITDA contribution of 100 million1 Total project cost of 325 million Approximately…
Optimizing Product Slate to Capture Value Total System Distillate Yield Diesel Premium to Gasoline /bbl 38% 14 Mid-Continent 12 36% 10 35% 8 33% 6 4 West Coast 2 0 2012 2013 2014E 2017E 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E…
West Coast Mixed Xylenes Project Changes to market structure have created opportunity Low natural gas prices 5,500 miles Advantaged crude oil yields Ethanol blending 11,000 miles Transportation advantage to growing Asian market…
Improving Contributions in Alaska New commercial opportunities Increased utilization by about 13%1 Clean product production up about 20% Optimizing jet fuel business Exporting naphtha to Asia Vancouver Energy enables significant…
Growing a Stronger Retail Marketing Business Improvements since 2010 Marketing integration increased from 31% to over 86% Introduced premium and value brand in our markets Acquired ARCO brand Increased retail network by 250%…
Optimizing the Value Chain Crude Oil Supply and Trading Product Channels Feedstocks Price Risk Commercial Logistics Management Operations Commercial Operations Marine Operations Refined Product Working Capital Supply and…
Strategic Importance of Logistics Feedstock Inbound Logistics Refining Outbound Logistics Product Sales Acquisition Access to Advantaged Feedstocks Access to Product Channels Growing logistics to provide a greater portion of…
Drop Down Opportunities Potential drop downs of at least 500 million of EBITDA 41
Todays Agenda Tesoros Competitive Advantage Greg Goff Delivering West Coast Improvements Keith Casey Capturing Margin Improvements CJ Warner Growing Logistics Phil Anderson Financial Overview Steven Sterin Summary Greg Goff…
Driving Distinctive Growth Leading full-service provider of upstream and downstream logistics in Western United States Distinctive logistics growth strategy for crude oil, natural gas and refined products Balanced approach through…
Overview of Current Assets Anacortes Key Metrics Crude Oil, refined product and Kenai Bakken 3,500+ miles Natural gas pipelines Powder River Mandan Natural gas throughput capacity 2,900+ MMcf/d Green Natural gas inlet processing…
Strategic Initiatives Focus on Focused fee-based business with long-term minimum commitments Stable, Fee- Maintain minimal commodity risk Based Business Provide full-service logistics offering Optimize Improve operational efficiency…
Competitive Advantage Well-Positioned Assets High Plains System positioned in core Bakken area Rockies natural gas system in low cost basins Southern California system supports high demand market Strategic Sponsorship Integral to…
Tesoro Driven Logistics Opportunities Feedstock Inbound Logistics Refining Outbound Logistics Product Sales Acquisition Marine Refinery tank Refined products Wholesale terminals terminals distribution distribution terminals…
Track Record of Delivering Value in millions 300-315 84 35 42 2011 EBITDA 2012 2013 2014 EBITDA Guidance Expected EBITDA growth of over 250 million since IPO 1) CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate for 2011 EBITDA…
Strategic Growth Accomplishments in millions Expected Annual 2014 Accomplishments EBITDA Contribution1 Acquisition of QEP Field Services 250-275 65 MBD High Plains Crude Oil Pipeline Reversal project 25 360,000 barrels of…
QEP Field Services Transaction Business acquired December 2, 2014 Transaction enterprise value of 2.5 billion Including 58% ownership interest of QEPM Transaction financing 1.3 billion from TLLP common equity 1.3 billion from…
Distinctive Growth Strategy in millions 2014 2015 2016 2017 Gathering (Incl. natural gas) 60-65 265-285 310-340 335-395 Processing N/A1 120-140 140-160 150-180 Terminalling and Transportation 260-270 285-315 300-330 310-340 Tesoro…
Gathering Expected EBITDA in millions Deliver 2015 expected EBITDA of 335-395 265 to 285 million 310-340 Expand capacity on High Plains 265-285 System through organic growth projects Drive natural gas gathering growth 60-65…
Growing Rockies Natural Gas Production Natural Gas Production Outlook Rockies Operating Areas Expected production growth of MMBTU/d 1600 15% to 25% through 2017 Incremental infrastructure required to support production 1200…
Processing Expected EBITDA Deliver 2015 expected EBITDA of in millions 120 to 140 million 150-180 Increase utilization through 140-160 gathering new production and 120-140 commercial initiatives Leverage capabilities to…
Terminalling and Transportation Expected EBITDA Deliver 2015 expected EBITDA of in millions 285 to 315 million 310-340 300-330 Focus organic growth capital within 285-315 260-270 Southern California Distribution System…
Capital Plan Overview in millions Capital Spend Cumulative EBITDA Organic Investment & Optimization Total Maintenance Base Growth Natural Gas Growth 90 110 100 225 300 200 260 250 150 160 70 60 70 70 40 2014E…
Financial Discipline Conservative 900 million revolver, expandable to 1.5 billion leverage and ample Expect leverage ratio to return to target range by end of 2015 liquidity Leverage target of 3x to 4x EBITDA Pursue balanced Maximize…
Continuing to Drive Unitholder Value Stable Cash Flow Well-Positioned Strong Sponsorship Assets Attractive, Visible Experienced Growth Opportunities Management Team 58
Todays Agenda Tesoros Competitive Advantage Greg Goff Delivering West Coast Improvements Keith Casey Capturing Margin Improvements CJ Warner Growing Logistics Phil Anderson Financial Overview Steven Sterin Summary Greg Goff…
Financial Overview Demonstrated success in driving strong earnings and cash flow growth Track record of disciplined capital allocation Driving value through logistics growth Creating significant shareholder value 60
Market Outlook - Overview Key Drivers Tesoros View Global Economic Outlook Moderate growth U.S. Economic Outlook 2 2.5% GDP growth Global Refining Capacity Capacity exceeds demand U.S. Refining Utilization High due to low…
Tesoro Index /bbl 16 12 8 4 0 2009 2011 2013 2015E 2017E /bbl 2009-2013 2014 YTD 2015E 2016E 2017E Tesoro Index 10.29 11.07 10 to 12 10 to 12 10 to 12 Source: 2014 YTD through 12/4/2014 64
Financial Priorities Invest in growth opportunities to drive further value creation Maintain a minimum cash balance of 600 to 800 million Target TSO debt to capitalization1 below 30% Solid Operating Results Target TLLP debt at…
Strong Earnings growth from 2010 to 2014 Tesoro EBITDA in millions Target 3 billon Achieved a 32% annual 2,200 EBITDA growth rate from 2010 1,986 to 2014 1,503 Enterprise value increased 1,276 360%1 Total shareholder…
Strong Cash Generation and Investment Cash Generation 3.4 billion of free cash flow since 20101 2.1 billion from asset sales to TLLP Deployment of Cash Effective capital allocation 2010 Through 3Q 2014 in millions Generating…
Maintaining Disciplined Capital Structure Debt to Tesoro1 Capitalization TLLP Debt to in billions in billions EBITDA 3.0 40% 4.0 5.0 Thousands Target 30% Target 3 to 4x EBITDA Thousands 30% 4.0 2.0 3.0 20% 2.0 1.0…
Capital Spending Outlook Tesoro Capital Spending1 in millions 625 570 575 550 Income Regulatory Maintenance 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Financially disciplined cash deployment 1) Excludes self-funded TLLP capital…
Turnaround Spending Tesoro Turnaround Spending in millions 235 240 210 165 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Turnaround spending level across the period 71
Returning Cash to Shareholders Dividends Currently 1.20 per share annually Increased 20% during 2014 Targeting a competitive dividend yield and payout ratio Percentages Tesoro Peer Avg.1 4Q Average Dividend Yield 1.8% 2.4% 2014…
Growth of Tesoro Logistics Annual Distributions to Percent of Logistics EBITDA1 Tesoro from TLLP 300 45% % of Total First Call Estimate in millions 245 Tesoro 30% GP 160 Tesoro excluding third-party 105 15% 50 30 LP 15…
TLLP Value Proposition to Tesoro in millions TLLP EBITDA1 Tesoros Implied Value of TLLP 857 Ownership2 5,000 629 4,000 3,000 GP 305 Holdings 1,460 156 77 760 LP Units 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2017E 2012 2013 2014E 2015E…
Best in Class Total Shareholder Return 600% 595% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 TSO VLO HFC MPC PSX Share price outperformance as a result of…
Todays Agenda Tesoros Competitive Advantage Greg Goff Delivering West Coast Improvements Keith Casey Capturing Margin Improvements CJ Warner Growing Logistics Phil Anderson Financial Overview Steven Sterin Summary Greg Goff…
Accelerating Growth in 2015 in millions 2015 Deliver West Coast Improvements 95 125 Capture Margin Improvements 130 170 Grow Logistics1 325 375 Annual Improvement2 550 670 Annual Improvement 550 670 505 565 225 175 175…
Driven to Create Value Operational Efficiency and Effectiveness Commercial Value-Driven Growth Excellence High Performing Financial Discipline Culture Driven to deliver 550 to 670 million in 2015 78
Non-GAAP Financial Measures (In millions) Unaudited EBITDA Reconciliation 2010 2011 2012 2013 Net earnings (loss) attributable to Tesoro Corp (29) 546 743 412 Add (earnings) loss from discontinued operations - 30 133 (20) Add…
Non-GAAP Financial Measures (In millions) Unaudited Annual EBITDA Estimate LA Refinery Integration and Compliance Salt Lake City Retail Project Vancouver Energy Conversion Project Segment Projected net earnings 53 122 55 162 Add…
Non-GAAP Financial Measures (In millions) Unaudited Expected Annual EBITDA Contributions High Plains Crude Bakken Acquisition of Oil Pipeline Commercial Connolly Gathering West Coast QEPFS Assets Reversal Project Storage Capacity…
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Tesoro Logistics LP Distinctive Growth Strategy Annual EBITDA(2) (In millions) Unaudited 2012A Terminalling and Gathering(3) Transportation(3) Net earnings 27 49 Add interest and financing costs, net -…