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BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc

BP Plc · Sep 1, 2014 · 23 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 1
    Focus on North America, September 2014 bp.com/energyoutlook BPstats 2014 BP p.l.c.
  2. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 2
    Contents Regional energy trends Fuel by fuel Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Energy Outlook 2035 Focus on North America 2014 BP p.l.c.
  3. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 3
    North American energy use rises slowly and peaks in the US Consumption by region Ten year increments by region Billion toe Billion toe 3 Canada & 0.6 Mexico Canada & Mexico US 0.4 US 2 0.2 1 0.0 -0.2 1975 1985 1995…
  4. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 4
    Falling transport demand offset by other (including power) Consumption by sector Ten year increments by sector Billion toe Billion toe 3 0.6 Industry Transport 0.4 Other 2 Transport Other 0.2 Electricity share 1 0.0…
  5. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 5
    Decline in oil demand, increases for natural gas & renewables Consumption by fuel Ten year increments by fuel Billion toe Billion toe 3 0.8 Renew.* Renew.* Hydro Hydro Nuclear Nuclear 0.5 Coal 2 Coal Gas Oil 0.3 Gas 1 0.0…
  6. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 6
    North American output growth led by gas, oil & renewables Production by region New energy forms Billion toe Billion toe 4 Canada & 2 Renewables in power 50% Mexico US Shale gas 3 Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels Coal 2 Non-OECD 1…
  7. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 7
    Energy decouples from economic growth and fuel shares shift GDP and energy Shares of primary energy Trillion 2012 Billion toe 40 10 50% Oil 40% 31 7 GDP 30% Gas 22 20% 4 Coal 13 10% Energy Hydro (RHS) Nuclear Renewables* 4 1…
  8. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 8
    The power sector takes an increasing share of energy use Inputs to power as a share of Primary inputs to North total primary energy American power 50% 100% World Renew. North America Gas 75% Nuclear Oil 40% 50% Coal 25%…
  9. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 9
    North America switches from net importer to net exporter Primary energy net balances Regional fossil fuel balances Billion toe Billion toe 4 FSU 0.5 Coal Africa Gas 2 0.3 Oil S&C America Middle 0.0 0 East North America -2…
  10. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 10
    Regional energy trends Fuel by fuel Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Energy Outlook 2035 Focus on North America 2014 BP p.l.c.
  11. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 11
    Oil: Falling transport demand and rising unconventionals Liquids demand by sector Liquids supply by source Mb/d Mb/d 30 30 Can/Mex Biofuels Other 20 20 US tight oil US Other Mexico Can/Mex Oil sands 10 Transport 10 Other…
  12. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 12
    Oil trade continues to shift from West to East US Regional imbalances China Mb/d Mb/d Mb/d 30 75 Middle East FSU 30 Net imports Net imports Tight oil Europe Asia Pacific Tight oil 25 Other supply 50 Africa S&C America 25 Other…
  13. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 13
    Regional transport demand declines driven by fuel economy Transport demand by fuel Five year increments by fuel Billion toe Mtoe 0.8 20 Electricity 0.7 10 Gas 0.6 0 Coal 0.5 Biofuels -10 0.4 Oil: -20 0.3 Road -30 0.2 Non-road…
  14. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 14
    Policy and technology enable efficiency improvements Fuel economy of new cars Vehicles sales by type Miles per gallon* 100 100% Plug-ins incl. EU BEVs US light vehicles 80 80% China Full hybrid 60 60% Mild hybrid 40 40%…
  15. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 15
    US natural gas use rises in all sectors; shale dominates supply Gas demand by sector Gas supply by source Bcf/d Bcf/d 120 120 Can/Mex Can/Mex Shale 90 90 US Other * US Shale 60 US Industry 60 US Other Can/Mex Other US Power…
  16. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 16
    Different regional prospects for unconventional gas and trade Sources of gas supply by region Europe China Bcf/d North America Bcf/d Bcf/d 120 120 120 Net pipeline import Net LNG import 100 100 100 Shale gas Other unconventional 80…
  17. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 17
    The US shale revolution: An example of market adjustment US oil and gas supply Gas share of US sector demand Billion toe 1.6 45% Industry 1.2 Oil 30% Power 0.8 15% Gas 0.4 Transport 0.0 0% 1970 1983 1996 2009 2022 2035 1965…
  18. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 18
    North American coal demand declines; renewables expand Coal demand by sector Non-fossil fuel demand Billion toe Billion toe 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 Renewables Can/Mex 0.4 0.4 Biofuels US Other Hydro US Power 0.2 0.2 Nuclear 0.0…
  19. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 19
    Regional energy trends Fuel by fuel Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Energy Outlook 2035 Focus on North America 2014 BP p.l.c.
  20. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 20
    CO2: Emissions from energy rise globally, fall in North America Emissions by region Emissions per capita Billion tonnes CO2 Tonnes CO2 45 25 36 20 US 27 15 IEA 450 Scenario EU China 18 10 Non-OECD World 9 OECD 5 North India…
  21. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 21
    Efficiency, not fuel mix, restrains North American emissions GDP, energy and emissions Emissions growth 2012 to 2035 Index: 1990 = 100 Billion tonnes CO2 300 4 3 GDP Energy intensity 2 200 1 Fuel mix 0 Energy Projected CO2…
  22. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 22
    Power sector is the main driver of regional fuel mix changes Share of power sector fuel consumption North America EU China Other non-OECD Asia 90% Coal Gas 60% 30% 0% 1990 1990 2035 1990 2035 1990 20351990 2035 1990…
  23. BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 – BP Plc – slide 23
    Conclusion Meeting the global/North American energy challenge Sufficient and available Yes new energy sources and efficiency improvements North America leads the way Secure and reliable Mixed improving for North America, a…

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