June 2015 Investor Presentation – Plains Gp Holdings Lp

Plains Gp Holdings Lp · Jun 4, 2015 · 152 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

PA A : F R O M W E L L H E A D T O R E F I N E R Y I N L E T An Interconnected Crude Oil System with Unmatched Capability, Versatility & Strength 2 0 1 5 I N V E S TO R D AY JUNE 4, 2015
Welcome & Opening Remarks Ryan Smith Director, Investor Relations www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 2
Orientation Information Package Agenda Investor Contact Information Participant Biographies Presentation Non-GAAP Reconciliations Q&A We will hold 3 Q&A sessions PAA personnel will be stationed in the audience with microphones…
PAA / PAGP 2015 Investor Day Agenda Topic Presenter Welcome & Opening Remarks Ryan Smith Crude Oil Industry Overview Greg Armstrong Midstream Crude Oil Fundamentals Jeremy Goebel An Interconnected System In North America Harry…
Putting Todays Remarks Into Perspective The PAA/PAGP 2014 Analyst Meeting was held one year ago Below is the presentation cover page reflecting the theme of the event Planning for Continued Industry Growth; Preparing for Periodic…
Disruptions Definitely Occurred Over The Next 12 Months June 2014 thru May 2015 /bbl Crude Oil Price Movement: June 14 - Present (1) /bbl Price Differential to WTI (Cushing) (1) 125 15 115 10 105 Price as of % Change 95 5…
PAA / PAGP: 12 Month Performance Recap Delivered Solid Results In A Dynamic Environment Financial Performance 2014 Report Card Financing Activities Delivered four additional quarters that met or PAA: exceeded guidance Maintained…
2015 Investor Day Theme - PAA: From Wellhead To Refinery Inlet An Interconnected Crude Oil System With Unmatched Capability, Versatility And Strength PAAs Interconnected System: Located in All Major North American Crude Oil…
PAAs Proven Business Model Positions PAA To Perform In A Variety Of Market Conditions Understand the Markets Optimize Performance Fundamental supply/demand of Such Assets drivers Interconnectivity Volatility, seasonality and Build…
Additional Takeaways For Todays Meeting PAA: From Wellhead to Refinery Inlet An Interconnected Crude Oil System with Unmatched Capability, Versatility & Strength Interconnectivity of crude oil pipeline and terminal systems provides…
Crude Oil Industry Overview -- With a Comparison to Past Views (a.k.a. report card) Greg Armstrong Chairman & CEO www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 12
Crude Oil Industry Overview PAAs Current Perspective Intermediate-to-Longer-Term Very Constructive-to-Bullish U.S. & Canadian crude oil resource base: Well-defined, extensive and growing Drilling and completion techniques proven and…
PAAs Previous Crude Oil Production Forecasts How Are We Doing So Far At May 30, 2013 Analyst Meeting, PAA forecasted U.S. & Canada production would increase 3.4 mmb/d by YE 2016 (highlighting quality / differential issues that could…
PAA Provided Updated View At June 5, 2014 Analyst Meeting: Long-Term Outlook Reinforced Expressed Caution Near-Term Reinforced assessment of extensive resource base & production potential; Extended production forecast to 2018,…
Relative To PAAs June 5, 2014 Outlook How Has The Environment Unfolded Directionally, we got a number of items right, but missed on some important issues (so far) Prices fell +/- 50% (vs PAA estimate of 40%) Production has continued…
Consistent with Prior Views, Long-Term Fundamentals Remain Sound Pace Of Growth Depends On Higher Prices, Lower Costs And/Or Improved Efficiency Developable Resource Base Updated Production Curve Outlook June 2015 Pre-Price Drop…
The Defined Crude Oil Resource Base Is Extensive, And The Drilling & Completion Recovery Techniques Are Proven (In mmb/d) Current Major US Area HZ Wells Estimate W. Canada Resource Acreage Drilled of Undrilled (20 Yrs) PAA Estimates…
And PAAs Assets Are Located In All Of The Right Places. Its Not A Question Of If The Resource Gets Developed, But Instead When (In mmb/d) Current Major US Area HZ Wells Estimate W. Canada Resource Acreage Drilled of Undrilled (20…
PAAs Newly Constructed Pipeline And Terminal Projects Are Strategically Located And Have Very Long Useful Lives (some as much as 70+ years) Cash flow delays associated with lower volumes due to deferred drilling and completion…
Situation Analysis How Did We Get to +/- 50 Oil Is 50 Oil Price Sustainable www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 21
Since PAAs June 2014 Analyst Meeting, Crude Oil Prices Have Decreased +/- 50% -- How Did We Get Here 125 Crude Oil Price June 2014 to May 2015 115 Petroleum Supply Growth Has Consistently 105 95 Exceeded Global Demand Growth…
Confirmation Of Supply/Demand Imbalance Evidenced By Large U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Builds In Critical Areas mmbls 515 DOE Total Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) mmbls DOE Cushing Inventory 495 65 Est Max Range 63 - 68MM 475 2015 2015…
50 Oil Price Is Not Sustainable www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 24
It Will Take Time To Resolve The Current Imbalance But The World Needs Sustainable North American Production GROWTH MMBbl/d mmb/d MMBbls mmbls 2.0 1,000 1.5 750 1.0 500 0.5 250 - - (0.5) (250) The 2012 Call is due…
It Will Take Time To Resolve The Current Imbalance But The World Needs Sustainable North American Production GROWTH MMBbl/d mmb/d MMBbls mmbls 2.0 1,000 1.5 750 1.0 500 0.5 250 - - (0.5) (250) The 2012 Call is due…
It Will Take Time To Resolve The Current Imbalance But The World Needs Sustainable North American Production GROWTH MMBbl/d mmb/d MMBbls mmbls 2.0 1,000 1.5 750 1.0 500 0.5 250 - - (0.5) (250) The 2012 Call is due…
It Will Take Time To Resolve The Current Imbalance But The World Needs Sustainable North American Production GROWTH How long will it take for inventory to draw MMBbl/d mmb/d MMBbls mmbls and what will be the impact on prices 2.0…
OPEC And RoW Are Not A Sustainable Source Of Swing Supply This Is Not The 80s: OPECs Excluding U.S., Canada & OPEC, Excess Production Capacity is the Rest of the World is Greatly Reduced Struggling to Grow Production Despite:…
But Steep U.S. Declines Require Sustained Capex To Maintain Production 65% of U.S. Onshore Production Is From Wells Drilled In Last 5 Years Illustrative Decline Curves mmb/d MMBbl/d Lower 48 U.S. Onshore PDP Decline 20 8.0 18 16 Oil…
As Demand Growth Overtakes Supply Growth, A Recovery Will Occur Illustrative Depiction Of PAAs View Of A Recovery To A New Constructive Oil Price Lower 48 U.S. Oil Production Price Sensitivity 12.0 Common Common 11.5 production point…
Despite Favorable Long-Term Fundamentals, At PAA We Remain Cautious Near-term As We Are Currently in a Transition Period. High Inventory Levels and Intermittent Resurgence of Production Could Cause False Starts and Impede Price…
Selected Near Term Challenges U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Levels as of May 22, 2015 are 85 mmbls above 2014s Record Levels Inability to Export Crude Oil (with limited exceptions) Inventory Reductions Constrained by U.S.…
Illustration Of Potential Inventory Builds/Draws Balance of 2015 Inventory Formula Working Assumptions A. Beg Inventory A. 85 mmbls 2014 levels B. + production B. Falling 500 mb/d by YE 2015 C. + imports C. Avg. 100 to 300 mb/d…
U.S. Supply / Demand Balances: Graphic Illustration Of Assumptions Over The Balance Of 2015 mmb/d DOE US Crude Oil US Monthly Production(1) OilProduction mmb/d DOE Total Crude Imports (4 Week Avg.) DOE TOTAL CRUDE IMPORTS (4 WEEK…
Illustration of Potential Inventory Scenarios Something Has To Give Interim Data Points Are Intended to be Directional, Ending Balances Represent the Case Outcome Low Inventory Case High Inventory Case C.) Imports: 300 mb/d below…
Last Report Card -- Crude Quality Issue In our May 2013 Analyst Meeting, PAA highlighted a number of potential issues and solutions for the increasing volume of the U.S. light sweet crude stream May 30, 2013 Analyst Meeting Slide…
Takeaways Near-term could be challenging may get worse before it gets better High inventory levels Potential for off-line production to come back on-line (e.g. Iran, Libya, etc.) highlights need for rebalancing within OPEC Overall…
Midstream Crude Oil Fundamentals Jeremy Goebel Managing Director, Business Development & Strategic Planning www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 39
Presentation Outline Overview of PAAs Crude Fundamentals Analysis Impact of Current Price Environment on Production Forecast Integration of PAAs Fundamentals Analysis into PAAs Investment Decisions www.plainsallamerican.com…
PAA Is Very Well Positioned To Understand The Markets PAA Business Model PAAs System: In the Center of the Information Flow Key Takeaway Transports 4.2 mmb/d of crude oil & NGLs PAAs network of activities within First purchaser…
Overview of PAAs Approach To Analyzing & Understanding Crude Oil Market Fundamentals Solid execution of PAAs strategy requires conviction in our forward view of what happens next PAA dedicates considerable resources to understanding…
Example Of PAAs Fundamental Analysis: Estimating The Impact Of Price Decreases On Production www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 43
Directional Indication Of The Impact Price Decreases Are Having On Cash Flow & Capital Reinvestment Directional Illustration of Magnitude of Price Impact Oil NGL (composite bbl) Gas Average 2014 production 8.6 mmb/d 2.9 mmb/d 73.0…
50 Oil Price Does Not Support Continued Development Outside of Core Areas Permian Drilling and completion activity in the core 80 WTI / 4 Gas 50 WTI / 3 Gas 7.0 areas of the Permian and Eagle Ford still 6.0 PV-10 including 20%…
Payback Periods For All New Wells Have Greatly Increased, Decreasing Capital Velocity And Reshaping The Investment Decision Permian Basin Example 10.0 100% 8.0 80% 6.0 60% Cumulative PV-10 4.0 40% Remaing Oil (%) 2.0 20%…
Aggregate Decline In U.S. Rig Count Has Been Consistent With PAA Estimates, But The Pace Of The Decline Has Been Faster Than Anticipated U.S. Oil Rig Count 2,000 1,800 1,600 Peak 1,780 1,400 -1,036 Rigs 1,200 1,000 -1,091…
Aggregate Forecasted Trough Rig Count And Basin Level Allocations Still Feel Appropriate Rig Count Permian Hz Permian V Eagle Ford Hz Willston Hz DJ Hz October 2014 Rig Count 347 215 215 180 58 Rigs Dropped (180) (157) (110) (111)…
The Remaining Rigs Have Concentrated Into Core Development Areas. As Commodity Prices Warrant, Development Will Expand Back Into Less Productive Areas. Hz Wells Drilled Nov. 2013 Nov 2014 Current Hz Rig Locations (as of 5/26/15)…
Example Of PAAs Fundamental Analysis: Integration Of Fundamentals Analysis Into PAAs Investment Decisions www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 50
Constructing Accurate Supply And Demand Balances Is The Core Competency That PAA Relies Upon In Developing Its Fundamental Analysis PAA constructs and maintains North American crude oil balances by crude quality for all major supply and…
Developing Supply/Demand Balances Is A Continuous, Iterative Process. Through This Process PAA Develops Its Fundamental Views And An Understanding Of The Key Variables Impacting The Markets. PAAs Thesis: Over the long term, US &…
Integrating Fundamental Analysis Into Our Core Business Linking PAAs Forecasting To The Process Of Making Investment Decisions PAA Leverages Its Supply/Demand Balances to Calibrate Crude Flows: Framework for Pipeline Throughputs…
Q&A Session www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 54
An Interconnected System In North America Harry Pefanis President and COO www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 55
PAAs Interconnected System Provides Significant Flexibility And Optionality To PAA And Its Customers Rail Access Pipeline Access Barge Access www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 56
Overview Of PAA Asset Capabilities By Product Platform NGL Crude Oil(1) Pipelines (active miles) 1,062 miles Pipelines (active miles) 16.7k miles Pipeline Tariff Volumes(2) 191 mb/d Pipeline Tariff Volumes(2) 4.1 mmb/d Storage…
PAAs Asset Base Spans All Major North American Crude Oil Production & Liquids Rich Areas As Well As Inland And Coastal Terminal & Interchange Locations Summary of Capacity at PAA Facilities(1)(2) Liquid Storage (mmbls) 125 Edmonton…
PAAs Significant Crude Oil Rail Presence In Major Supply / Demand Areas Provides Additional Optionality To PAAs System Kerrobert, SK* Manitou, ND Van Hook, ND Carr, CO Tampa, CO* Yorktown, VA Bakersfield, CA Capacity…
PAAs System Includes A Meaningful Presence In Key Canadian NGL Market Hubs And Other Strategically Located NGL And Natural Gas Storage Facilities Edmonton / Fort Saskatchewan Kerrobert Sarnia Yorktown LA Area Legend…
The Versatility & Capability Of PAAs System Positions PAA To Handle Substantial Daily Volumes Throughout North America Check the Box Mid- West Gulf Eagle East PAAs System Provides: Permian Canada Rockies Williston Continent Coast…
PAA Leverages Interconnectivity To Optimize The Performance Of Assets In Dynamic Market Conditions Significant geographic footprint in both supply and market areas with cash flow diversity No one asset generates 5% of cash flow…
Interconnectivity Continues To Be Enhanced With PAAs Steady Annual Growth In Expansion Capital Investment 8% 7% 7% Solid track record of identifying 2012 - 1.185 B 50% 19% and executing on opportunities to 5% 5% build…
PAAs Positioning + Business Model Support Strong Organic Growth Opportunities (9.5 Billion Project Portfolio) 9.5 Billion Project Portfolio(1)(2) By Year/Approval Status Portfolio by Market Region Bakken 6% West Coast 3% Gulf…
PAA: Well Positioned For Future Growth Significant asset footprint in all of the major liquids producing basins in North America Large portfolio of organic growth opportunities Geographically diverse, primarily small-to-medium-sized…
US Crude Oil: Unmatched Capability And Versatility John Keffer Vice President, Terminals www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 66
Theme: From Wellhead To Refinery Inlet-- PAAs Crude Oil System Is The Case In Point PAAs crude oil system strongly illustrates todays theme PAAs interconnectivity is evident throughout North America Here we will focus on three of PAAs…
Example 1 PAAs Cushing, OK Terminal What Makes Cushing Tankage Valuable Operational need for refiners and producers Major pipelines increasing capacity to Market Hubs Refiners need to stage deliveries Crude segregation requirements…
PAAs Cushing Terminal: Strategic Positioning, Superior Connectivity, Proven Capability mb/d Total Cushing Hub Throughput(1) 2,000 PAA's % of Total 95% Historical 85% 1,500 Projected PAA Average Daily Throughput 75% 1,000 65%…
Superior Service And Connectivity To End Markets Creates Significant Value For Industry Operators PAAs Terminal in Brief: The most interconnected and flexible facility in Cushing, connecting to all major inbound and outbound…
The Cushing Terminal Is A Model For PAAs Various Other Market Hub Facilities Cushing St. James Compelling Characteristics Terminal Terminal Strategically located at major pipeline intersection Strategic land position to facilitate…
Example 2 - PAAs St. James, LA Terminal Strategically Connected Location That Is Expandable And Capable Of Receiving And Delivering Crude Via All Major Transportation Options St. James Aerial View Estimated Storage Capline XOM…
PAA Continues To Expand And Enhance Connectivity And Flexibility At St. James PAAs St. James Crude Transport Capabilities Pipeline Rail Barge Tanker St. James Expansion Phases VI & VII Are Underway mmbls 14.0 Phase VI:…
Example 3 Connecting the Permian Basin To The Eagle Ford (Cactus Pipeline Example) Cushing Borger The Cactus Pipeline now connects Permian producers to the Eagle Ford and access Wichita Falls to waterborne shipment. Long-haul…
PAA Continues to Enhance Permian Basin Connectivity Organic Growth Opportunities Driven By Shipper Demand For Directional Optionality Out Of The Basin Yielding Broad Access To Multiple End Markets To Cushing, OK To Houston PAA…
PAAs Permian Basin Footprint Positions PAA As A First Mover To Connect The Permian To The Eagle Ford Interconnectivity Contributes to All Three Segments: Transportation Long-Haul: Cactus P/L servicing Permian Basin Production (WTI,…
Closing Comments In addition to the areas discussed, PAA is pursuing similar connectivity focused investments in other major crude oil and NGL producing regions and terminalling / interchange locations Key factors evaluated in the…
Canadian Crude Oil & NGL Capabilities and Growth Opportunities Jason Balasch Executive VP, NGL Commercial and Facilities www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 78
PMCs Interconnected Crude Oil & NGL System PMC has Invested 3.7 Billion in Canadian Crude Oil & North American NGL Infrastructure (2009 2015 (G)) North American NGL Investments: 2.5 B Canadian Crude Oil Investment: 1.2 B Project…
Outlook: Canadian Crude Oil & NGLs Long-term fundamentals remain solid for Canadian crude and NGL production; development timing remains the question Activity levels have been impacted 70% reduction in Canadian rig count from peak…
Canada NGL Supply by Major Play* 500 2020 Forecast - Q3 2014 mbbl/d PMC Forecasts 450 B.C. Montney 400 Duvernay 350 Alberta Deep Basin 300 250 Alberta Montney 200 150 100 50 Other Production 0 2012 2013 2014 2015…
NGL Business Overview Well Positioned for Growth Equity Supply We have an integrated North 115 MBD American NGL asset and marketing business The business is built on market-focused assets with = NGL Marketing geographic diversity…
Western NGL Business Supply Integration FORT SASKATCHEWAN KAYBOB 3 PROJECTS Gas Processing 120MM Plains - 665MM PORTFOLIO Keyera JV - 85MM APPROVED KERROBERT NGL Cavern 5 20MM APPROVED NGL Cavern 6 15MM PORTFOLIO NORTH…
Fort Saskatchewan Expansion Plans - 665 MM APPROVED Capital ( USD) Phase I - Major Scope Items Two High Rate Mix Caverns New & Expanded C3 & C4 Truck Loading Terminal 2.5 MMbbls Brine Pond 4 215 MM Phase II - Major Scope…
West/East NGL System Linking Supply to Markets Keyera Fort Petro Chemical PFS Rail/Truck Saskatchewan Facilities via AEGS (21.293% Plains) Pipeline Terminal Pembina Redwater Fort Sask Plains Fort Saskatchewan Fractionator (PFS)…
Eastern NGL Business Developing Market Access ST. CLAIR C3/C4 Offload 20 MM WSP is the final leg of KMIs HANKINSON APPROVED Utopia system, bringing Expansion & Terminal 10 MM Marcellus ethane into Sarnia APPROVED WINDSOR EDS…
NGL Next Steps Continue to develop our integrated North American NGL system through acquisition, expansion, and new construction Supply Canadian resource fundamentals remain strong Further PFS expansion including de-ethanizer &…
Canadian Crude Production Canadian Conventional Crude Supply* 92 rigs as of April - this has accelerated our 1,400 production decline assumption forward 1,200 Believe Canadian activity will remain depressed 1,000 until mid-2016, but…
Canadian Crude Strategy Optimize existing infrastructure Increase crude storage Fort Saskatchewan C5+ hub expansion North American rail strategy Increase connectivity to new export pipelines www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA &…
Canadian Crude Overview Our crude oil pipelines transport 32%* of the conventional oil produced in Western Canada Crude Oil Asset Overview 2,920 miles active pipelines 415 mbpd pipeline volumes 4.8 MMbbls tankage 660 truck…
Optimizing Existing Infrastructure NORTHERN ALBERTA Increased throughput Indigo pipeline* 515MM FORT SASK APPROVED C5+ Storage/Connections *Project is subject to delay or termination 85MM by the Shipper under certain conditions -…
Crude/ C5+ Storage Total Current Storage 4.8 MMbbls Total Future Storage 9.2 MMbbls Nipisi/Atlantis Current 590 kbbl Kerrobert Current 1.8 MMbbl Future 2.0 MMbbl Edmonton Regina Current 375 kbbl /Fort Sask Future 620 kbbl…
C5+ Hub Expansion Fort Saskatchewan C5+ Pipeline Connections: Fort Saskatchewan Cochin Pipeline Cold Lake Pipeline Making additional C5+ Plains Rainbow II Pipeline Access Pipeline connections and storage to create PFS C5+ hub…
North American Rail Strategy Unit train facility originating at Kerrobert up to 26 trains/month Export optionality for producers Advantage ability to manage each barrel from origin to export using Plains integrated assets…
Connectivity to Export Pipelines Existing Hubs Deliver Optionality Nipisi Enbridge Proposed Proposed Rainbow Connection PFS Enbridge Gateway 21 kms Namao Connection 10 kms TransCanada Proposed Proposed 600,000 bbl storage…
Key Takeaways Our crude and NGL platforms both integrate supply, transportation logistics and demand No shortage of development opportunity - 1.9 B in future projects Both approved and portfolio projects are focused on established…
Q&A Session www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 97
Financial Overview Al Swanson Executive VP and CFO www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 98
Presentation Outline Growth Drivers, Performance & 2015 Guidance Financial Strategy, History of Financial Discipline & Current Positioning Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) Update www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP 99
Recent & Current Investments In Organic Capital Projects Provide Visibility For Multi-Year Growth (In mm) Organic Growth Capital Investment 2,400 2,150 98% of capital 2,026 2,000 being invested in 1,620 1,600 fee-based assets,…
PAAs Organic Investments Generate Attractive Unlevered Return Profile Above Its Fully Loaded Cost Of Capital Targeted Return Profile vs. WACC Key Takeaways The gold region below represents a Vast majority of PAAs organic capital…