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NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners

Petrie Partners · Feb 19, 2013 · 15 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 1
    North American Supply Outlook and M&A Trends 2013 and Beyond EnerCom Oil & Services Conference and Webcast San Francisco February 19, 2013 THOMAS A. PETRIE, CFA PETRIE PARTNERS, CHAIRMAN
  2. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 2
    Topics Petroleum Price Trends Petroleum Supply Prospects Geopolitical Considerations M&A Trends Conclusions 2
  3. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 3
    Petroleum Price Trends WORLD EVENTS AND OIL PRICES NOMINAL PRICING (1970 2012) 160 160 140 140 Self reinforcing Financial Institutional pursuit of commodities Fiscal Cliff fallout 120 120 concerns 100 100 Prices spike on Iraq…
  4. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 4
    Petroleum Price Trends WORLD EVENTS AND OIL PRICES NOMINAL PRICING (1970 2012) 160 160 Nominal Pricing Inflation Adjusted Pricing (1) 140 140 Self reinforcing Financial Institutional pursuit of commodities Fiscal Cliff fallout 120…
  5. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 5
    Petroleum Price Trends Oil and Gas Rig Counts (2009 2012) 1,500 1,250 1,000 748 1,281 Gas Rigs Oil Rigs Rigs 750 500 379 392 250 Oil Rigs Gas Rigs 0 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11…
  6. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 6
    Petroleum Supply Prospects United States Oil Production by Type in the New Policies Scenario 12 10 8 Light Tight Oil MBopd Other Unconventional Oil 6 NGLS Crude Oil: Crude Oil: 4 Fields yet-to-be found Field…
  7. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 7
    Petroleum Supply Prospects POTENTIAL PRODUCTION RATE THAT COULD BE DELIVERED BY THE MAJOR U.S. SHALE PLAYS UP TO 2030 30 Marcellus 25 Haynesville Woodford Fayetteville 20 Barnett Bcf / Day 15 10 5 0 2000 2005…
  8. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 8
    Breakeven Oil Price ( / Bbl) 75.00 15.00 30.00 45.00 60.00 0.00 Core Granite Wash Yeso Vertical Core Bakken 43.16 43.30 44.13 Source: Selected research, public disclosure and industry IR materials. Central…
  9. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 9
    Petroleum Perspectives 2013 and Beyond GEOPOLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS Evolving Power Triangles Russia US Iran China Saudi Arabia India 9
  10. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 10
    M&A Trends U.S. UPSTREAM TRANSACTIONS GREATER THAN 10 MM (2002 2013 YTD) Asset Deal Count () (1) 120 109 106 101 96 93 98 100 76 Of Deals 80 62 60 53 52 40 20 3 0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Corporate…
  11. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 11
    M&A Trends U.S. UPSTREAM TRANSACTIONS GREATER THAN 10 MM (2002 2013 YTD) Asset Deal Total Consideration (Bn) (1) Implied Deal Value ( / Mcfe) 60 6.00 Total Value (Bn) Total Deal Value (Bn) 50 48 5.00 Implied (/Mcfe) 43 41…
  12. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 12
    M&A Trends of Corporate Mergers of OGJ Top 50 Companies Acquired 48 13 19 4 (1) (2) 2000 - 2005 2006 - 2012 2004 - 2006 2007 - 2012YTD Domestic corporate M&A activity remains well below levels witnessed during the first…
  13. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 13
    M&A Trends Conventional vs. Shale M&A Transactions (Selected Targets Greater than 1 Billion) U.S Shale Corporate M&A Transaction Other Corporate M&A Transaction Statoil / Brigham (4.6 B) Atlas America / Atlas Energy (1.0 B) BHP /…
  14. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 14
    Conclusions The U.S. and North American Supply outlook now has the brightest growth outlook in over three decades There remain open issues of price sensitivity and capital intensity U.S. and Canadian petroleum export policies and…
  15. NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND MA TRENDS – Petrie Partners – slide 15
    A Path to Petroleum Flexibility (MMBpd) 2010 2018 2025 U.S. Demand: 17.5 MMBpd U.S. Demand: 16.9 MMBpd U.S. Demand: 15.3 MMBpd U.S. U.S. U.S. Im ports Production Im ports 4.2 MMBpd 7.0 MMBpd U.S. 6.9 MMBpd U.S. Production U.S.…

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