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MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited

Thai Oil Public Company Limited · May 22, 2015 · 55 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 1
    -1- Thai Oil Public Company Limited Opportunity Day 22 May 2015 Time : 10.10 - 11.10 AM Venue : Stock Exchange of Thailand
  2. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 2
    -3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment To create a high-performance organization…
  3. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 3
    -4- Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities for Corporate Governance Policy Stakeholders The board of directors, management Truthfully report companys situation and and all staff shall commit to moral future trends…
  4. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 4
    -5- Presentation Agenda Q1/15 KEY HIGHLIGHTS & PROJECTS UPDATE Q1/15 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS Q1/15 & 2015 MARKET OUTLOOK LINEAR ALKYL BENZENE (LAB) INTRODUCTION
  5. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 5
    -6- Q1/15 KEY HIGHLIGHTS & PROJECT UPDATE
  6. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 6
    -7- Q1/15 Key Industry Highlights Refinery Implication 5/bbl drop in Dubai crude price from ongoing 1.5 /bbl inventory loss oversupply in crude oil market (from huge stock loss 11.2 /bbl in Q4/14 ) Strong demand during winter…
  7. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 7
    -8- Q1/15 Key Operation and Financial Highlights Operations / Financial Highlights TOP Group Net Profit Unit : million THB Maximized refinery run at 106% while Net Operating Profit before tax Stock G/(L) optimized Aromatics unit at…
  8. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 8
    Project Update -9- Key Project Progress Update : LAB Project Detail Progress TPX JV with Mitsui (75% : 25%) 92% Upgrade existing Benzene and Kerosene into higher Linear Alkyl valued product; LAB which is an intermediate feedstock…
  9. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 9
    Project Update -10- Key Project Progress Update : 2 SPPs Project Detail Progress Low risk power business enhance income stability 74% Support reliability of electricity & steam supply for TOP Group TOP SPP Develop 2 new SPP power…
  10. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 10
    -11- Q1/15 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
  11. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 11
    -12- Thai Oil Refinery : Superior Performance Better Refinery Utilization Rate & Domestic Sales than industry average TOPs Refinery Utilization vs Industry * TOPs Domestic Sale vs Industry * TOP Refinery Overall Industry Domestic…
  12. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 12
    Refining -13- Q1/15: Strong DemandDecent Refining Margins Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization Q1/15 Q4/14 Q1/14 2014 2015 2014 106% 108% 105% /bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD * FY14 DUBAI (DB) 104.4…
  13. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 13
    Aromatics -14- Q1/15: Squeezed BZ...Pressured Aromatics Margin Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2014 2015 2014 Q1/15 Q4/14 Q1/14 /ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD * * 66% 89% 95% FY14 PX*-ULG95 273 220 371 252 255 277…
  14. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 14
    Lube Base Oil -15- Q1/15: Restocking DemandImproved Lube Margins Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2014 2015 2014 Q1/15 Q4/14 Q1/14 /ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD * FY14 79% 80% 100% 500SN-HSFO 486 501 500 493…
  15. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 15
    Financial -16- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinerys Cash Cost (Unit: US/bbl) (Unit: US/bbl) Marketing GRM Accounting GRM (Marketing GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (Net) 8.2…
  16. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 16
    Performance Breakdown -17- Q1/15: Performance Breakdown Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points TOP: max run to capture decent margins ***74% TPX: optimized run to support holding refinery due to lower P2F…
  17. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 17
    Financial -18- Strong Financial Performance Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Mar 15 1) (Unit: million THB) Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt 193,607 200,044 80,193 million THB 27,744 million THB…
  18. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 18
    -19- Q1/15 & 2015 MARKET OUTLOOK Crude Oil Petroleum Products Aromatics Base Oil & Bitumen
  19. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 19
    -20- CRUDE OIL
  20. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 20
    Refinery -21- Crude Prices Rebound in 2H-15 as the Market Strives to Find the Demand-Supply Balance Dubai Price Movement /BBL Shale Oil Boom 110.0 Dramatic Declines in 100.0 Oil Rigs & CAPEX Cuts 90.0 80.0 Conflict in Yemen 70.0…
  21. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 21
    Refinery -22- Higher Oil Demand Bolstered by Improved Economy A World Oil Balance B Global Crude Oil Balance MBD MBD 3.0 98 Crude oil surplus Non-OPEC supply narrows down 96 growth slows down 2.0 94 1.0 92 Recovering oil…
  22. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 22
    -23- PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
  23. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 23
    Refinery -24- Firm Refinery Margins in 2015 Singapore Cracking GRM (/BBL) Winter Chinese New Year demand Strong Gasoline Restocking Margin Q1/14: 6.3/BBL Q1/15: 8.6/BBL Q2/14: 5.8/BBL Q4/14: 6.2/BBL Q3/14: 4.8/BBL Jan-14…
  24. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 24
    Refinery -25- Strong Gasoline Demand due to Low Prices A AP Gasoline Demand B US Gasoline Demand KBD KBD 7000 2015Y : 304 KBD 10000 2015Y : 145 KBD 2014Y : 233 KBD 2014Y : 80 KBD 6500 9500 6000 9000 5500 Upbeat Chinese…
  25. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 25
    Refinery -26- Delayed Indian Refinery Expansion Addition CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Nameplate (start-up Country Company (KBD) ME Additional Demand AP Additional Demand period) Other AP Close Vietnam Q1-15 UAE 417…
  26. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 26
    Thailand Oil Demand -27- Recovered Thailands Oil Demand in 2015 Thailand Petroleum Demand Factors to Watch Year on Year 2013 2014 2015F C Energy Policy Mogas A +6.7% +3.8% +4.3% GSH91 E10 Phase out Jet/Kero +9.5% -1.0% +4.5%…
  27. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 27
    -28- AROMATICS
  28. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 28
    Aromatics -29- Stable Aromatics Market in 2H-15 Aromatics Market PX-ULG95 (/TON) BZ-ULG95 (/TON) 371 326 280 273 277 269 286 252 255 254 221 207 178 101 2Q15TD* Y2014 Y2015 2Q15TD* 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14…
  29. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 29
    -30- BASE OIL & BITUMEN
  30. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 30
    Base Oil & Bitumen -31- Stable TLB Margin in 2H-15 Base Oil Market Base Oil Benchmark Spread (/TON) Gr.II-Gr.I Price Difference (/TON) 90 495 486 501 499 492 70 369 379 50 30 10 -10 2Q15TD* Y2014 Y2015 1Q14…
  31. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 31
    Base Oil & Bitumen -32- Stable TLB Margin in 2H-15 Bitumen Market Bitumen Benchmark Spread (/TON) Domestic Bitumen Demand (KTON/M) Average Demand Growth (2011-2015): 11% p.a. 85 100 80 23 12 60 40 -32 20 -69 -66 -77 0…
  32. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 32
    -33- CONCLUSION
  33. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 33
    Conclusion -34- 2H-15 Market Outlook Conclusion Refinery Crude prices recover, buoyed by U.S. oil production growth slowdown and MENA tension. Modest GRM backed by Middle Distillate demand Aromatics Stable Aromatics spread on…
  34. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 34
    -35- LINEAR ALKYL BENZENE (LAB) INTRODUCTION LAB I nnovation for EX cellence
  35. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 35
    LAB -36- Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) Kerosene Customers Feedstock LAS Domestic LAB Benzene Export Feedstock Products Kerosene By Products Return Detergent Power Detergent Liquid Naphtha Fuel oil *LAS…
  36. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 36
    LAB -37- SE Asia as a Net Importer SE Asia LAB Balance KTA 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Other s…
  37. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 37
    LAB -38- Benzene Value Added Product Spread (/Ton) 800 750 BZ price recovery Bearish Crude market 700 and low BZ demand 650 Average 564 /Ton 600 550 500 Higher US BZ import from Asia High BZ price from Dragon 450…
  38. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 38
    LAB -39- LABIX Competitive Advantages Strong Local and Regional Demand First Integrated Plant in SEA LABIX 100 KTA (Integrated plant) c PT Unggul Indah Philippines Cahaya (UIC) Thailand Indonesia (Non-integrated plant)…
  39. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 39
    -40- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: irthaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
  40. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 40
    -41- APPENDIX World GRM / Inventories Thailand petroleum demand by products Updated CAPEX plan Implication of TFRS 10 adoption
  41. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 41
    World GRM -42- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin 90.9% 60.4% 69.5% Total Capacity: 17.0 MBD Total Capacity: 4.9 MBD Total Capacity: 17.5 MBD Source: EIA, Norwegian Energy, Thai Oil
  42. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 42
    Inventories -43- Crude Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
  43. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 43
    Inventories -44- Global Distillate Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
  44. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 44
    Inventories -45- Fuel Oil Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
  45. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 45
    China Export -46- Chinas Product Export Source: Norwegian Energy
  46. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 46
    Thailand petroleum demand by products -47- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight In Q1/15 LPG was markedly dropped by 7.9% over the same period last year on account of lower usages in cooking, transportation…
  47. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 47
    Thailand petroleum demand by products -48- Domestic Gasoline Demand Thailand Gasoline Demand GASOLINE Demand Highlight In Q1/15 Mogas demand rose considerably by 13.9% from the same period last year to an average 25.44 mml/day.…
  48. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 48
    Thailand petroleum demand by products -49- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET Demand Highlight In Q1/15 Jet consumption increased by 5.4% over the corresponding period last year mainly owning to reviving tourism…
  49. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 49
    Thailand petroleum demand by products -50- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight In In Q1/15 Diesel demand rose by 2.2% YoY as relatively low retail prices boosted the consumption amidst…
  50. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 50
    Thailand petroleum demand by products -51- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand FUEL OIL Demand Highlight In Q1/15 Fuel Oil consumption significantly fell by 17.8% from a year earlier. The decline was mainly due to…
  51. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 51
    Updated CAPEX plan -52- Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US million) Remaining capital investment Our CAPEX Projects COD Total Project investments will Cost 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 cover improvements Refinery upgrading…
  52. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 52
    Implication of TFRS 10 adoption -53- Effect on Changes in Accounting Policies TFRS 10 Consolidated Financial Statements
  53. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 53
    Implication of TFRS 10 adoption -54- Changes in Accounting Policy 1 Jan 2015 To consider the previous acquisition of TPX, TLB and GPSC to be business combinations under common control, at YE 2004 9 Jan 2013 YE 2014 the time of…
  54. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 54
    Implication of TFRS 10 adoption -55- Effect on Changes in TFRS 10 31 Dec 2014 31 : 2013 Dec Restated Transaction Dr. Cr. Dr. Cr. Statem ent of Financial Position Investment in associates (GPSC) 684 798 Property, plant and…
  55. MAY 2015 OPPORTUNITY DAY – Thai Oil Public Company Limited – slide 55
    -56- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: irthaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976

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