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APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities

Global Hunter Securities · Apr 3, 2013 · 35 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 1
    Insert Company Logo The Emergence of Saudi America: Five-Year Energy Outlook April 2013 Mike Kelly O: 713.658.6302 M: 713.540.2184 E: mkellyghsecurities.com AIM: mkellyghs Data as of April 1, 2013 SEE ANALYST…
  2. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 2
    High-level thoughts for our five-year outlook Insert Company Logo 1Q13 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Natural Gas Price Forecasts (/mcf) Natural Gas 3.48 3.25 3.25 3.75 3.43 4.00 4.00 4.25 4.50 Oil Price Forecasts…
  3. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 3
    Insert Company Logo Oil Outlook: 2013-2017 1Q13 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Oil Price Forecasts WTI (/bbl) 94.20 85.00 85.00 85.00 87.30 80.00 82.00 82.00 82.00 Brent (/bbl) 113.85 100.00 100.00 100.00…
  4. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 4
    US oil supply has seen a strong increase over the last 4 years Insert Company Logo +24% Source: EIA, GHS estimates Page 4
  5. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 5
    Will US oil supply follow in the footsteps of natural gas Insert Company Logo +90% from 2008 to 2017 9.4 MMbpd 6.3 MMbpd 4.9 MMbpd Source: EIA, GHS estimates Page 5
  6. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 6
    US gas production growth driven by big shale plays Insert Company Logo Source: EIA, GHS estimates Page 6
  7. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 7
    A look at the new US liquid resource plays Insert Company Logo Source: Industry data, company presentations, GHS Page 7
  8. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 8
    Economics in Major Oil Plays Insert Company Logo Oil Price to Generate 25% IRR Mean: 72.17 Play Potential Locations Remaining Inventory (years) Bakken 23,400 9 Eagle Ford - Oil 25,600 22 Permian - Horizontal 31,200 18…
  9. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 9
    Rig count has shown a drastic shift to oil Insert Company Logo Source: EIA, GHS estimates Page 9
  10. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 10
    Rig ramp in the large unconventional plays Insert Company Logo Eagle Ford Rigs March 2013 190 January 2009 28 Bakken Rigs March 2013 201 January 2009 78 Source: Baker Hughes, Smith Bits, GHS estimates Page 10
  11. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 11
    Quantifying the impact of drilling in the Bakken and Eagle Ford Insert Company Logo Source: EOG Resources Page 11
  12. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 12
    Going forward: Our 5-Year rig count assumptions Insert Company Logo Total rig count down 5% in 2013 Fairly flat through 2017 Rig Location or Category 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Barnett Gas 17 14 18 18 18 Cana 16 16 16 16 16 DJ…
  13. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 13
    Crude oil: significant domestic growth expected through 2017 Insert Company Logo The Big Three Lead Growth Source: EIA, industry data, GHS estimates Page 13
  14. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 14
    US oil production is the biggest driver through 2017 Insert Company Logo We estimate the US will add 3.1 MMbpd over the next 5 years Table below shows the sources of the growing global supply Source: EIA, industry data, GHS…
  15. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 15
    GHS global oil supply/demand summary Insert Company Logo Acceleration of supply outpacing demand 2MM bpd oversupplied in 2014/2015 Expect Saudi to react with a meaningful cut Source: EIA, GHS estimates Page 15
  16. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 16
    A look at the new US liquid resource plays Insert Company Logo Source: Industry data, company presentations, GHS Page 16
  17. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 17
    Delaware Basin Permian Insert Company Logo At a glance Activity in the play Well costs: 6MM-10MM EURs: 350-700Mboe Oil/Gas Split: 60/40 IRR: 62% Key players: CXO 630,000 net acres CRK 54,000 net acres WLL 91,000 net acres…
  18. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 18
    Northern Midland Basin - Permian Insert Company Logo At a glance Activity in the play Well costs: 5.5MM-9MM EURs: 400-650 Mboe Oil/Gas Split: 70/30 IRR: 62% Key players: PXD 700,000 net acres LPI 196,000 net acres CXO 100,000…
  19. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 19
    Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Insert Company Logo At a glance Activity in the play Well costs: 10MM-14MM EURs: 400- 800 Mboe Oil/Gas Split: 80% oil IRR: 75% Key players: EOG 120,000 net acres GDP 135,000 net acres ECA 290,000 net…
  20. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 20
    Focus on Tuscaloosa Potential Insert Company Logo Source: EIA, GHS estimates Page 20
  21. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 21
    Stacked pay offers big upside Insert Company Logo Bakken Permian Source: Continental Resources, Laredo Petroleum, Concho Resources Page 21
  22. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 22
    Insert Company Logo Natural Gas Outlook: 2013-2017 1Q13 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Natural Gas Price Forecasts (/mcf) Natural Gas 3.48 3.25 3.25 3.75 3.43 4.00 4.00 4.25 4.50 Source: Bloomberg, GHS…
  23. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 23
    Low cost gas is driven by liquids rich resource plays Insert Company Logo Gas Price to Generate 25% IRR Mean: 3.61 Play Potential Locations Remaining Inventory (years) Haynesville 29,250 64 Marcellus Wet Gas 25,600 41…
  24. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 24
    Deep dive into natural gas Insert Company Logo 2012 2017: +6% 73.5 Bcfpd 69.25 Bcfpd Source: EIA, industry data, GHS estimates Page 24
  25. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 25
    Gas declines more than offset by shale development Insert Company Logo Steep Gas Decline Met by Strong Shale Growth Source: EIA, industry data, GHS estimates Page 25
  26. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 26
    Incremental Marcellus production adds Insert Company Logo 8.07 Bcfpd of new production by end of 2017 More Barnett, Haynesville, Fayetteville, Woodford Combined 10% boost to Marcellus rig count adds another +1.5 Bcfpd (+19%)…
  27. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 27
    Associated gas production from the major oil basins Insert Company Logo 34% of total gas growth in 2013 9.67 Bcf of associate gas will be added through 2017 Biggest contributors: Eagle Ford (+2.3), Permian (+2.2), Utica (+1.8)…
  28. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 28
    Working gas storage projections Insert Company Logo 2013 US Natural Gas Supply Demand Balance (Bcf/d) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US Marketed Production 70.24 70.30 70.80 71.15 71.15 71.10 71.00 71.05 70.98 70.90…
  29. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 29
    Insert Company Logo NGL Outlook: 2013-2017 1Q13 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E NGLs Price Forecasts (/gal) Ethane 0.26 0.30 0.33 0.35 0.31 0.37 0.42 0.44 0.48 Propane 0.87 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.87 0.90…
  30. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 30
    NGL production outlook Insert Company Logo 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Ethane 972 1,084 1,198 1,280 1,337 1,391 Y/Y Change 12% 11% 7% 4% 4% Propane 694 773 853 910 950 988 Y/Y Change 11% 10% 7% 4% 4% N-Butane 175 198 222…
  31. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 31
    Gas processing capacity growth by region Insert Company Logo Source: Bentek Energy, GHS Page 31
  32. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 32
    Fractionation capacity growth though 2017 Insert Company Logo Source: Company presentations, GHS estimates Page 32
  33. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 33
    NGL pipeline conversions/expansions Insert Company Logo Bakken NGL Mariner West Overland Pass Mariner East (Ethane) Mariner East (Propane) Conway ATEX Front Southern Hills Range MAPL Looping Expansion Texas…
  34. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 34
    Insert Company Logo Page 34
  35. APRIL 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Global Hunter Securities – slide 35
    Insert Company Logo Page 35

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