Q4 2014 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE – Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S ·
Mar 2, 2015 · 39 slides
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Slides
Results for 4Q 2014 Analyst Teleconference 02 March 2015 1
01 Market 02 Operation 03 Financials
2014 Market Conditions Bearish Economic Development High Seasonal Maintenance Demand Volume Depreciation Geopolitic Risk Perception in TL Decreased Slightly Positive Excess Crude Heavy Crude Supply Spreads WTI /…
12 Month 2014 - Turkish Consumption (Million ton) Diesel Jet Fuel* 18,5 4,5 +4,2% 16,5 4,0 +11,2% 14,5 3,5 12,5 3,0 10,5 8,5 16,7 17,4 2,5 4,1 6,5 2,0 3,7 4,5 1,5 2,5 1,0 0,5 0,5 2013 2014 2013 2014 Gasoline Fuel Oil…
Crude Differentials /Barrel 1,5 Ural Crude Differentials /Barrel 2,0 1,0 0,5 1,0 0,0 -0,5 0,0 -1,0 -1,0 -1,5 -2,0 -2,0 -2,5 -3,0 2009-2012 Min/Max 2012 -3,0 -3,5 2014 2011 -4,0 2013 -4,0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep…
Quarterly Price Ratios (product /bbl/Crude /bbl) 1,16 Gasoline 1,24 Diesel 1,14 1,22 1,12 1,20 1,10 1,18 1,21 1,16 1,08 1,15 1,15 1,14 1,13 1,13 1,06 1,12 1,12 1,12 1,19 1,12 1,09 1,16 1,15 1,171,15 1,151,16 1,181,171,15 1,04…
Product / Crude Price Ratio Effect on Tupras, 4q Tpra Product Ratio, bbl/bbl Crack Margin October-December Product Yield % 2013 2014 2013 2014 LPG 0,75 0,67 3,7 -1,0 0,2 Gasoline 1,04 1,13 21,3 1,0 0,1 Naptha 0,93 0,85 0,4 0,0 0,0…
Fluctuation in Oil Price & Exchange Rate for 4Q 2014 96 94,6 2,38 94 2,37 92 Brent Crude Price 2,36 90 TL/Dollar 88 2,33 2,34 86 84 84,3 82 2,32 80 78 2,29 2,30 76 74 71,7 2,28 72 70 68 2,26 66 64 2,24 62 60 2,22…
Inventory Effect* Analysis 2013 2014 million Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Jan-Sep 29,2 42,8 72,0 -20,7 -11,9 -32,5 Oct -7,5 3,0 -4,5 -8,2 -35,1 -43,4 Nov -3,1 -2,0 -5,1 -19,0 -40,8 -59,8 Dec 15,2 16,3 31,5 -33,6 -67,6…
Med & Tpra Net Margins, /bbl 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 8,20 10,0 8,0 5,82 6,72 4,56 6,37 5,46 5,91 5,53 5,23 5,02 6,0 4,42 4,13 3,84 3,45 3,45 5,0 3,05 2,92 2,76 4,0 1,87…
Margin Comparison & Inventory Effect Tpra Gross Refining Inventory Tpra Clean Med Complex / bbl Margin Effect Gross Ref. Margin Margin 2013 4.Q 8,86 0,11 8,75 0,30 2014 4.Q 11,80 (1,45) 13,26 3,84 Tpra Clean / bbl Tpra NET…
Market Operations Financials 12
Production Capacity Utilisations (%) Quarterly Production Volumes (Million Tons) 100 7 6,47 6,25 90 -4,2% 6,07 93,2 5,83 91,1 90,7 79,9 81,6 79,1 6 5,63 87,2 86,1 77,1 5,51 5,51 80 2,9 2,4 74,9 5,5 78,7…
Product Yields Middle Distillates Light Distillates 45,5% 47,4% 46,2% 23,8% 23,4% 50% 45,0% 43,6% 43,4% 25% 22,6% 22,6% 21,7% 22,5% 42,3% 42,5% 0,0% 21,2% 21,5% 0,5% 0,8% 1,7% 0,0% 0,4% 1,2% 0,7% 40% 20% 27% 27% 30% 27% 25% 29%…
Domestic Sales, million tons 1,18 Gasoline Jet Fuel 1,11 0,54 0,53 1,01 0,53 0,98 0,52 0,52 1,2 0,92 0,91 0,6 0,49 0,47 0,46 0,46 0,45 0,45 0,84 0,83 0,44 0,44…
Opet Station Numbers 1.500 1.324 1.325 1.356 1.393 1.224 1.279 1.200 418 427 526 394 410 394 900 600 830 885 915 938 966 798 300 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Opet Sunpet Summary White Product market share is 17,9%…
RUP Progress Test study for the Units going on A total of 3.0 Billion has been spent on procurement and construction, including RUP related jetty, railway and other investments, As of the end of January: Total Completion has…
Market Operations Financials 18
Profitability Indicators , 12 M & Q4 2013-2014 2013 4Q 2014 4Q (%) 2013 2014 (%) 109,27 76,27 -30,2 Dtd.Brent Price, (/bbl) 108,7 98,99 -8,9 32,24 31,91 -1,0 Processed Crude API 32,54 32,29 -0,8 73,20 70,50 -2,7 White Product…
Financial Highlights (mn ) EBITDA Net Income 1.329,4 1.400 1200 1.200 272 1000 1.000 830 753,5 715 800 800 468 169 115 106 560 271 600 174 91 1.081 1.099 271 89 600 47 373 338 400 779 328 361 998 47 206 175 256 315 226 400…
Balance Sheet Analysis Cash & Equivalents (Billion ) Receivables (Billion ) 2,5 2,0 1,89 2,16 2,0 1,83 1,81 1,72 1,69 1,5 1,34 1,45 1,33 1,64 1,68 1,19 1,41 0,93 1,5 1,30 1,0 0,71 0,52 0,51 1,0 0,67 0,5 0,09 0,5 0,0 0,0 Dec 11…
FX Risk Exposure (31 December 2014 ) Consolidated Consolidated Assets Liabilities Million Cash Payables 589 1,457 Receivables* ST Financials 223 47 RUP 146 Stock LT Financials: 2,652 1,018 RUP Loans: 1,839 Eurobond: 700…
Income Statement 4Q 4Q 12 M 12 M % Diff. Million USD % Diff. 2013 2014 2013 2014 5.223,2 3.974,3 -23,9 Net Sales 21.594,7 18.164,9 -16 162,9 98,1 -39,8 Gross Profit 774,5 577,5 -25 -104,6 -108,1 3,4 Operating Expenses -367,8…
Tpra Balance Sheet-Assets % Million USD 31.12.2014 31.12.2013 Difference Difference Current Assets 3.015 4.575 -1.560 -34 Cash & C. Equivalents 1.681 1.716 -35 -2 Receivables 87 935 -848 -91 Derivatives 28 0 28 Inventories 1.022…
Tpra Balance Sheet-Liabilities % Million USD 31.12.2014 31.12.2013 Difference Difference Short Term Liabilities 3.692 4.871 -1.179 -24 Financial Loans 335 504 -168 -33 Payables 2.464 3.218 -754 -23 Derivatives 0,03 0,00 0,03…
Future Expectations Med Complex Margin We expect Med Complex margins to be 3.0-3.2 dollar per barrel band in 2015. Tupras Net Margin For Tupras net refinery margins, we expect this to be in the region of 3.7-4.5 dollars per barrel…
Extras 28
Product / Crude Price Ratio Effect on Tupras, Full Year Product Ratio, Product bbl/bbl Yield % Crack Margin Jan-Dec 2013 2014 2013 2014 LPG 0,69 0,67 3,7 -1,3 0,4 Gasoline 1,09 1,12 21,3 2,1 0,2 Naptha 0,91 0,92 0,4 0,0 0,0 Jet…
Import Product Profitability-4Q and Full Year Million TL 2013 2014 4Q 14,4 16,8 Annual 55,4 86,5 9
Inventory Effect Start of Period End of Period Stock Differential Amount of Stock Ton Barrel Crude Price Crude Price Effect /bbl /varil /bbl Mn Crude 363.673,4 2.742.097,2 108,0 55,0 -53,0 -145,5 CIF-/ton Gasoline 167.088,2 965,8…
12M Product Yields 2013 2014 Asphalt Asphalt 9,65% 13,92% Gasoline Gasoline 21,77% 21,85% Light Black Fuel Oil Light Distil. Black Fuel Oil Prod. 17,51% Distil. 22,48% Naphtha Prod. 12,96% 26,88% 21,94% Naphtha 0,70% 26,57%…
4th Quarter Product Yields 2013 2014 Asphalt Asphalt 8,3% 14,4% Gasoline Gasoline 21,0% 23,0% Light Light Black Fuel Oil Black Distil. Prod. Distil. Prod. 22,6% Naphtha 20,4% 23,4% Fuel Oil 26,1% 1,7% 28,7% 11,7% Naphtha…
12 M Sales (Thousand Tons) Domestic Sales Export Volumes 9.000 3.000 7.968 2.772 2.670 8.000 12M 2013 2.493 2.500 6.593 7.000 12M 2014 12M 2013 6.000 2.000 12M 2014 1.725 5.000 3.872 1.500 3.595 4.000…
12M Trading Activities Finished Products Intermediates High Sulfur Diesel imports down Additional HVGO imported to 63% but buy more ULSD increase Capacity Utilisation in High / Low sulphur diesel conversion units differentials were…
Monthly Price Ratios (product /bbl/Crude /bbl) 2013-BBL/BBL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. LPG 0,70 0,68 0,72 0,69 0,60 0,61 0,63 0,65 0,69 0,67 0,71 0,88 0,69 Naptha 0,90 0,93 0,92 0,87 0,89 0,90 0,89 0,90 0,91…
Fluctuation in Oil Price & Exchange Rate for 2014 2,35 2,35 116 115,3 2,33 109 2,31 2,28 102 2,27 95 Brent Crude Price 94,8 TL/Dollar 2,23 88 2,21 81 2,19 74 2,17 2,15 67 2,11 60 55,0 2,07 53 2,07 37
4Q Refining Margin Analysis Explanation Million-TL EBIT from Net Margin =41,80 mn bbl x4,57x2,26 431,54 Trade & Service Income not incld. margin calc. 19,31 Product&Semi Product Inventory Effect not incld. margin calc. -325,02…
4th Quarter Refining Companies Performances (Downstream only) Inventory Effect Operating Profit Regional Refining Processed Crude, Operating Profit Refining Million USD Excluding Inventory Margin,/bbl bbb/day Million USD Region…
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