-0- Thai Oil Public Company Limited Opportunity Day Presentation to Investors 21 May 2014
-1- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy,…
-2- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment To create a high-performance…
-3- Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities for Corporate Governance Policy Stakeholders The board of directors, management Truthfully report companys situation and and all staff shall commit to moral future trends…
-6- Q1/14 Business Highlights Macro-economies / Industry Highlights Improving Indonesian import demand & Improved Market GRM opportunities to export diesel to US during winter Soften Dubai crude price pressured by weak CN Stock…
-7- Q1/2014: Improving Groups Net Profit Top Group Net Profit Gross Refining Margin - GRM Unit : million THB NP w/o Stock G/L Stock G/(L) LCM /bbl Q1/14 Q4/13 Q1/13 Before tax Marketing GRM 5.1 1.9 6.6 Q1/14 Q4/13 R Q1/13R…
Refining -10- Q1/14: Thriving Product SpreadsImproving MKT GRM LPG - DB (Unit: /bbl) Diesel - DB + Firm demand from Vietnam, Saudi Arabia & Africa Q2TD 8 May + Strong heating oil market in the US amid expected colder weather and…
Refining -12- Optimized & Flexible OperationsSuperior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Spread over Domestic demand for TOP configuration Crude output Dubai (US/bbl) petroleum products* 1 % S = 1.54 % S = 2.13 %…
Financial -19- Strong Financial Performance Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Dec 13 1) (Unit: million THB) Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt 208,662 217,566 76,526 million THB 27,540 million THB…
-20- Q2-4/2014 Market Outlook Macroeconomics & Crude Prices Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
-21- Macroeconomics & Crude Prices Limited crude demand during refinery maintenance and softer Chinese economy to pressure oil price BUT Russia Ukraine conflict to limit losses
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -22- 2014 Global GDP Growth by IMF Improved world economic growth 2014 driven by advanced countries Growth 2014 (%YoY) 2013 China US EU World Jan-14* Apr-14** 12% USA 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 9% EU -0.5%…
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -23- 2014 Global Oil Demand Growth IEA forecasted 2014 world oil demand increases around 1.29 mbd FSU Unit: KBD North America Europe 110 120 70 380 90 -110 -60 -510 -340 Middle East 240 Asia…
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -24- 2014 Non-OPEC Supply Growth IEA forecasted 2014 Non-OPEC oil supply increases around 1.51 mbd mainly from North America Unit: KBD FSU North America Europe 1240 1350 1270 50 230 -30 -180…
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -25- 2014 World Oil Market Balance & OPEC Spare Capacity OPEC spare capacity rises around 6 MBD in 2014. With high spare capacity, OPEC will play an important role to balance global oil demand/supply and…
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -27- Instability Situation in Libya, Iraq, Iran, South Sudan & Syria Instable supply from Libya, Iraq South Sudan. Along with uncertainty of oil sanction lift in Iran add volatility to crude price…
-28- Petroleum Product Market Firm GRM in Q2-14 due to tight supply during refinery maintenance and refinery closure in Japan
Refinery -29- Overview 2014-18 Refinery Status (Effective Additional Capacity) Expected supportive GRM in 2014 due to limited net capacity addition as refinery closure in Japan, Australia & project postponement in China CDU…
Refinery -30- Refinery Maintenance in Asia-Pacific Area Seasonal peak refinery maintenance in Asia-Pacific during Q2 limits crude oil demand. This will support petroleum product market. Asia Pacific Refinery % capacity 5.7%…
Refinery -31- Uncertainty on Chinese Diesel Exports Asian market could be pressured by Chinese barrels Chinas gasoil demand and exports Domestic Demand (LHS) Export (RHS) Potential for more exports KT KT 18,000 800 Diesel…
Refinery -32- Expected Peak Asian Gasoline Price in Q2 Refinery maintenance for key importer e.g. Vietnams Dung Quat refinery (350KBD) Tracking increasing US gasoline demand due to stronger 4-week average gasoline demand during…
Refinery -33- Supportive GRM in Q2 due to Tighter Supply during Peak Refinery Maintenance (/bbl) 2013FY Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2TD-14* 2H-2014** ULG95-DB 13.6 9.2 14.6 16.2 JET-DB 17.5 17.3 17.0 15.8 GO-DB 17.9 17.7 17.8 18.2 HSFO-DB…
Refinery -34- Thailand Oil Demand 2013 and 2014 Outlook Year on Year 2011 2012 2013 2014F LPG +15 % +7 % +2% +4% Mogas** -1 % +5 % +7% +1% Jet/Kero +8 % 0% +9% +3% Diesel** +4 % +7 % +2% +1% Fuel Oil -6% -4 % -8% -14%…
-35- Aromatics PARAXYLENE . New PX capacities weigh down PX spread
-36- Has PX Spread Hit the Bottom 7.2 mil tons of new PTA plants start- Japan up in China (Yisheng Dalian, Yisheng QE1 Tsunami Hainan, Hengli 2) Fears over EU Lehman Brothers showed debt 3.9bn loss Q413-Q114 Fears over EU…
Aromatics -37- Heavy PX Capacity Addition Causing Supply Surplus Feedstock Uncertainty (MTPA) Own Feedstock Sinopec Hinan HC Petrochem TPPI Tenglong1 Tenglong2 2013 2014 Addition Plan KTPA Company Early plan of…
Aromatics -38- Weak Downstream Demand Adding More Pressure Key Events Description Illustration MTA AP Polyester Demand % Weak Chinese GDP in Q1-14 at 7.4% Weak 80 16% AP Polyester Demand Chinese Contracting Chinese PMI for 4…
Aromatics -39- PX Demand/Supply Outlook AP/ME PX Capacity* and Demand Effective Additional Capacity Forecast Forecast MTA MTA 2010-2013 2014 2015-2019 Dem: 8.1% Dem: 6.3% Dem: 5.9% 8 60 Cap: 6.2% Cap: 17.2% Cap: 7.9% 50 55 6…
Aromatics -40- BZ Demand/Supply Outlook AP/ME BZ Capacity* and Demand Effective Additional Capacity Forecast Forecast MTA MTA 2010-2013 2014 2015-2019 50 Dem: 5.4% Dem: 5.5% Dem: 4.7% 4 Cap: 5.3% Cap: 7.5% Cap: 4.3% 40 44 3 39…
Lube Base Oil & Bitumen -45- Seasonal demand supported base oil spread (/t) 2013FY Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2TD-14* 2H2014** 500SN-HSFO 485 509 487 508 Bitumen-HSFO -14 -27 -67 -67 Remark : *QTD until 8 May 14 ** Compared to 1H2014…
-46- Conclusion
Conclusion -47- Firm Fundamental Refinery Soften crude oil price on strong growth supply from US light tight oil Supportive GRM in 2014 due to limited net capacity addition Mild local oil demand growth in 2014 pressured by slower…
-48- 2014 KEY ACTIVITIES / PROJECT UPDATE
Project Update -49- Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US million) Remaining capital investment Projects COD Total Project 2017- Cost 2013 2014 2015 2016 2019 Refinery upgrading 2014 137 99 29 Our CAPEX investments…
Project Update -50- CDU-3 Major Turnaround 2014 Major Turnaround Crude Distillation Unit-3 (CDU-3) is under major turnaround 55 Days during Jun-Jul 2014 Other relevant units are also under turnaround such as HCU-1, CCR-1, TPXs…
Project Update -51- 2014 Key Project Update : HCU Revamp Project Detail Progress HCU Revamp: Modify HVU-2 by using Shell Deep Cut Technology COMPLETED Basic Design Capable to produce more diesel/jet at the expense of Package (BDP) &…
Project Update -53- 2014 Key Project Update : EIP Project Detail Progress Emission To control flue gas quality according to the new CONSTRUCTION PHASE Improvement emission law (New emission law limits SOX < 500 ppm (overall progress…
Project Update -54- 2014 Key Project Update : Solvent Capacity Expansion Project Detail Progress To expand solvent capacity to meet the demand growth CONTRUCTION PHASE Solvent in Thailand and the region (overall progress 100%)…
Project Update -55- 2014 Key Project Update : LAB Project Detail Progress Upgrade existing Benzene and Kerosene into higher CONSTRUCTION Phase Linear valued product; LAB which is an intermediate feedstock (overall progress 35.2%)…
Project Update -56- 2014 Key Project Update : 2 SPPs Project Detail Progress Low risk power business enhance income stability EXECUTE Engineering, Support reliability of electricity & steam supply for TOP Procurement & TOP SPP…
Project Update -57- 2014 Key Step Out on New Geography Study Project Detail Study Refinery Background/Objective Yangon Upgrading In 2012, Myanmar Govt issued Bid Thanlyin Project in Invitation to participate in upgrading Myanmar…
-58- KEY TAKE AWAY MESSAGE
-59- Key Take Away Messages Business / Operational Excellence Max Run Refinery to Capture decent Margins / Max Domestic Sales Focus on upcoming CDU-3 major turnaround in Jun-14 Optimized Run Aromatic / Base Oil to support Group…
-60- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: irthaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
-61- APENDIX
-62- TOP Group Overview
-63- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oils strong shareholder base Benefits from PTTs dual 27.7% role as our major shareholder and key 49.1% business partner All transactions take place at arms…
-64- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Diversifying to a broad Hexane range of downstream Toluene SOLVENTS The majority of Mixed-Xylene products to…
-65- Key Milestones: 53 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 1997 2004 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and business diversification diversification…
-66- Thai Oil Group Business Structure 100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET) Sells Electricity/ 4…
-68- One of Regions Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,095 kbd 2013 Market shares for refined petroleum product3 32% Fang (3 kbpd) market shares Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTTs Principal Refiner BCP2…
-69- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Close proximity to the key domestic markets Access to Indochina markets through deep water ports Our strategic location provide us with LAOS 1. Close…
-73- Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan THB/Share EPS Total dividend n.a. Interim dividend 9.19 9.40 Dividend…
-74- TOP Group Key Highlights Thailands largest and Diversified earnings 2 one of the regions through integration 1 most advanced and with, and significant competitive refineries contribution from, our subsidiaries…
-75- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin /bbl SINGAPORE GRM 90.2% 56.0% 72.5% Total Capacity: 17.5 MBD Total Capacity: 17.0 MBD Total Capacity: 4.9 MBD Source: EIA, Norwegian Energy, Thai Oil
-76- Crude Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
-77- Global Distillate Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
-78- Fuel Oil Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy
-79- Chinas Product Export Source: Norwegian Energy
-80- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/DAY LPG demand in Q1-14 decreased by 3.0% YoY mainly due to lower usages in petrochemical and cooking sector as PTTGC shut I-1 Plant for 37 days and I-4/1 Plant…
-81- Domestic Gasoline Demand GASOLINE Demand Highlight Thailand Gasoline Demand Mogas consumption in Q1-14 increased by MML/DAY 0.8% YoY to stood at 22.5 mml/day, partly due to transportation demand, which was share by 7.2% of…
-82- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET-A1 Demand MML/DAY JET Demand Highlight Jet consumption in Q1-14 rose by 4.0% YoY supported by 12% expansion of aircraft movement. However, the growth of flights was capped by implementation…
-83- Domestic Gasoil Demand GASOIL Demand Highlight Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil demand in Q1-14 decreased by 0.6% MML/DAY YoY partly due to lower demand in industry sector which has impacted by economic slowdown from the…
-84- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand MML/DAY FUEL OIL Demand Highlight Fuel Oil demand in Q1-14 expanded by 3.20% YoY mainly due to higher demand in power sector as Yetagun and Yadana gas platform maintenance…
-85- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: irthaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976