The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research The World in 2015 & Greeces Bumpy Ride Themistoklis Fiotakis Themistoklis.Fiotakisgs.com Senior Economist Goldman Sachs International 16th Annual Capital Link Invest…
Feds First Hike Since 2006 * Path implied by 5th-lowest SEP dot. We use mid-2019 for the longer-term funds rate projection, in line with previous FOMC communications that the funds rate would rise gradually over 2-3 years after…
The Great Divergence Dotted lines show path implied by forward contracts 1.6 % US 1.4 3m interbank rates Euro area 1.2 Japan UK 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs…
Leads To A Stronger USD 3.0 130 % 2-year rate differential Index 5-year rate differential 2.5 10-year rate differential 120 USD G10 trade-weighted index (RHS) 2.0 110 1.5 1.0 100 0.5 90 0.0 80 -0.5 70 -1.0 -1.5 60…
Further Downside Risk to Oil Prices YoY, thousands barrels per day GS non-OPEC supply 4,000 Non-OPEC supply without US supply growth slowdown Global demand 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011…
Leads to Disinflation until Mid-2015 Brent Crude Oil: Spot, GS Forecasts Contribution of Food and Energy and Long-term Forwards to Headline Annual CPI Inflation 120 4 Bre nt oil price % Bre nt 10-year forward 110 US sha le o…
Chinas bumpy downshift will extend Chinas challenge defusing a credit build up in a time of slowing growth 40 Percent change, year ago 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Nominal GDP Debt (Total Social Financing) 0…
Quantitative Easing Ahead for the ECB ECB Actions Keep Front-End EUR Curve The 10-year US Treasury-German Bund Well Anchored Spread Is Highest in the Last Two Decades 3-yr USD OIS and EONIA swap rates, (%) 10-year USTs Bunds…
Greece: Macro is Better Than We Expected, But Election Uncertainties Hurts Assets. EUR bn (Chained in 2000) 350 Optimistic real output assumption Pessimistic output assumption 300 250 200 150 100 00 02 04 06 08…
Disclaimer I, Themistoklis Fiotakis hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firms business or client relationships. Unless…
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