Contents Page Introduction 4 Global energy trends 7 Oil (and other liquid fuels) 25 Gas, power and coal 45 What can bend the trend 63 Key themes 75 Data sources 80 Energy Outlook 2030 3 BP 2011
Welcome to BPs Energy Outlook 2030. The outlook for global energy is not just a matter for energy companies: its an issue for all of us. Around the world, there is a lively and important conversation taking place on the choices that…
You will see, for example, that our outlook expects global CO2 emissions to continue rising, along with import dependence in many key consuming regions. This does not mean BP downplays the importance of climate change or the role of…
Note on method and assumptions This outlook is not a business as usual extrapolation, or an attempt at modelling policy targets. Instead it is built to the best of our knowledge, reflecting our judgement of the likely path of global…
Global energy trends 7 BP 2011
The world we live in Population Primary energy GDP Billion Billion toe Trillion, 2009 PPP Forecast Forecast Forecast 8 12 100 OECD OECD OECD 7 Non-OECD Non-OECD 10 Non-OECD 80 6 8 5 60 4 6 3 40 4 2 20 2 1 0 0 0 1970 1990 2010…
is poised for further growth Population and income growth are the two most powerful driving forces behind the demand for energy. Since 1900 world population has more than quadrupled, real income has grown by a factor of 25, and…
The long view: Energy consumption and fuel mix World commercial energy use Contribution to total energy growth Billion toe % p.a. 18 5 Renewables * Nuclear 15 Hydro 4 Gas 12 Oil 3 Coal 9 2 6 1 3 0 0 1870 1910 1950 1990…
mirror technology and economic development Powerful long run trends continue to shape the modern energy economy: industrialisation, urbanisation and motorisation. These trends are associated with increasing quantities of energy…
Historical trends and patterns of development Energy use per unit of GDP toe per thousand 2009 PPP Forecast 0.6 0.4 China US 0.2 World India 0.0 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Energy…
can help us understand how the future may unfold Today, the amount of energy used to produce a unit of GDP (energy intensity) is declining steadily in most countries. Historically, a common pattern emerges. Energy intensity…
The relationship between population, GDP and energy % p.a. Global growth rates 4% 3% GDP 2% Population 1% Energy Energy per capita 0% Energy per GDP -1% -2% 1970-1990 1990-2010 2010-2030 Energy Outlook 2030 14 BP…
changes slowly, but it changes As globalisation proceeds, the next 20 years are likely to see rapid growth of low and medium income economies. Energy consumption per capita to 2030 is likely to grow at about the same rate as in 1970-…
as the fuel mix gradually shifts away from oil and coal World primary energy consumption grew by 45% over the past 20 years, and is likely to grow by 39% over the next 20 years. Global energy consumption growth averages 1.7% p.a.…
Gas and renewables win as fuel shares converge... Shares of world primary energy Contributions to growth 50% Oil 2.5% Renewables* 40% 2.0% Hydro Coal Nuclear 30% 1.5% Coal 20% 1.0% Gas Gas 10% Hydro 0.5% Oil Nuclear…
and the energy supply mix diversifies The three fossil fuels are converging on market shares of 26-27%, and the major non-fossil fuel groups on market shares of around 7% each. Oil continues to suffer a long run decline in market…
Industry and power generation in developing economies Growth of world energy consumption 2010-30 by sector and region by sector and fuel Billion toe Billion toe 3.0 3.0 2.5 Other 2.5 Hydro Non-OECD Nuclear 2.0 2.0 Middle Renew. 1.5…
dominate the growth of energy consumption In the OECD, energy consumption for transport is in decline and industrial use is likely to be flat; all the growth in energy end-use comes from the other sector (households and the service…
Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tighten Global CO2 emissions from energy use by region by fuel vs GDP and energy Billion tonnes CO2 Billion tonnes CO2 Index (1990=100) 40 40 400 350 GDP 30 30 Coal 300 20 20 250…
and have a significant impact on emissions growth by 2030 Strong growth in non-OECD energy consumption, especially of coal, translates into continued growth of global CO2 emissions. The growth of global CO2 emissions from energy…
Oil (and other liquid fuels) 25 BP 2011
Liquids demand growth from non-OECD countries Mb/d Demand Supply 105 2030 level Other Other 100 S&C Am Iraq Mid East Saudi 95 Oil Sands Other Asia Biofuels NGLs 90 Brazil China FSU 85 80 75 2010 OECD Non- 2010 Non- Non-…
will be met by supply growth from OPEC and biofuels Oil is expected to be the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years. Global liquids demand (oil, biofuels, and other liquids) nonetheless is likely to rise by 16.5 Mb/d, exceeding…
Demand growth driven by non-OECD transport and industry Liquids demand by region Liquids demand by sector Mb/d Mb/d 105 105 Other Non-OECD 90 Ind & Other 90 CIS 75 75 Non-OECD Middle East Transport 60 60 Other non- OECD Ind &…
while OECD demand falls across all sectors Global consumption growth in this outlook is projected to slow to 0.9% p.a. (from 1.3% in 1990-2010). OECD consumption will fall to 41.5 Mb/d, roughly the 1990 level. Non-OECD consumption is…
Oil growth in the transport sector slows Energy in transport Passenger car fuel economy Mtoe litres/100 km* 3000 9 US 2500 8 China Electricity Japan 2000 Gas 7 OECD Europe 1500 Coal 6 1000 Biofuels 5 500 Oil 4 0 3 1990 2010…
on displacement by biofuels and improved engine efficiency Energy used for transport will continue to be dominated by oil, but should see its share of global energy use decline as other sectors grow more rapidly. Growth is expected to…
China remains a key component of oil consumption growth Chinas liquids demand growth Liquids demand per capita from 1970 Mb/d Bbls per person 5 20 China South Korea 4 16 Taiwan Malaysia Power/ 3 12 Thailand Other Industry 2 8…
but growth is likely to slow China is the largest source of oil consumption growth in our outlook, with consumption forecast to grow by 8 Mb/d to reach 17.5 Mb/d by 2030, overtaking the US to become the worlds largest oil consumer.…
Supply growth comes primarily from OPEC... Liquids supply by region Liquids supply by type Mb/d Mb/d 105 105 Asia Pacific OPEC NGLs 90 90 Africa OPEC crude 75 75 Middle East 60 60 Biofuels FSU 45 45 Oil Sands Europe 30 30…
as unconventional liquids cause modest non-OPEC growth Globally, liquids production is expected to increase to meet the growth in consumption, though the sources of growth will change the global balance. Global liquids supply is set…
OPECs critical role in the oil market continues... Mb/d OPEC production and spare capacity OPEC production 50 (Crude and NGLs) 50% Other OPEC Saudi Arabia Iraq OPEC Spare Capacity 40 % of Global Output (rhs) 45% 30 20 40% 10 0…
with capacity expansion essential to meet demand growth The importance of OPEC is expected to grow. On our projections, OPECs share of global production would increase from 40% in 2010 to 46% in 2030 (a level not reached since 1977).…
Iraq is an important component of future oil supply... Mb/d 12 10 7 projects 8 6 4 projects 4 2 Prospective project volumes 0 Current 1st Bid 2nd Bid Historic 2020 2030 Round Round Peak (1979) Energy Outlook 2030 38…
and a major source of uncertainty The pace of Iraqi capacity expansion and production growth is a key source of uncertainty for this outlook. Iraq is expected to account for 20% of global supply growth from 2010 to 2030. Service…
Biofuels meet an increasing share of demand growth Mb/d Biofuels supply Mb/d Liquids demand growth 7 1.5 40% Average annual growth (lhs) 6 Asia Pacific Biofuels share % (rhs) 30% 5 Other 1.0 4 20% US 3 0.5 2 Europe 10% 1…
driven by supply expansion in the Western Hemisphere Biofuels production (largely ethanol) is expected to exceed 6.5 Mb/d by 2030, up from 1.8 Mb/d in 2010 contributing 30% of global supply growth over the next 20 years, and all of…
Refiners face competition from various supply sources Liquids supply Growth 2010-30 Mb/d 100 Other liquids:* 1 Non-refined NGLs: 2 90 Biofuels: 5 80 Total non-crude: 8 70 Crude runs 9 60 Liquids demand 17 OECD 50 40 2010…
suggesting only modest growth in refinery throughput Growth in the call on refinery throughput will be impacted by the supply growth of biofuels (5 Mb/d) and non-refined NGLs (2 Mb/d). Increases in processing gains and growth in…
Gas, power and coal 45 BP 2011
Gas production and consumption growth moderates Production Consumption Bcf/d Bcf/d 500 500 2.1% p.a. S & C America 400 400 North America 2.4% p.a. Middle East 300 300 Europe 200 200 FSU 100 100 Asia Africa 0 0 1990 2010…
while shifting to emerging markets Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel globally to 2030, but slows relative to historic patterns as the market base expands and demand-side efficiency measures gain hold.…
Gas demand growth is driven by the non-OECD Demand by region Demand by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d 500 500 Other Transport 400 400 FSU Non-OECD Power 300 Middle 300 East Non-OECD Ind & Other 200 Other non- 200 OECD Asia OECD Power…
and the power sector globally The non-OECD countries account for 80% of the global rise in gas consumption, with growth averaging 3% p.a. to 2030. Demand grows fastest in non-OECD Asia (4.6% p.a.) and the Middle East (3.9% p.a.). Gas…
Non-OECD gas demand grows for structural reasons Gas demand by sector Middle East BRICs Other non-OECD Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d Transport 100 100 100 Power Other 80 80 80 Industry 60 60 60 40 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 0 1990 2010…
and most rapidly in China, the Middle East, India and Brazil Non-OECD gas use is driven by economic growth, accompanying industrialisation, industrial policy, the power sector and the development of domestic resources. Middle East…
Gas displaces coal in OECD power generation Shares of power generated from fossil fuels Share North America Share OECD Europe Share OECD Asia 100% 100% 100% Oil 80% 80% 80% 60% 60% 60% Coal 40% 40% 40% 20% 20% 20% Gas 0%…
encouraged by environmental policy Our base case assumes policy efforts to curb emissions via carbon prices, mandates and low carbon technologies. The precise policy details will determine the fuel mix particularly the role of gas.…
Unconventional gas will play a growing role Sources of gas supply, by region North America Europe China Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d 100 100 100 Net imports: Pipeline 80 80 80 LNG 60 60 60 Domestic Column 4 production: 40 40 40 Syngas…
across the world The world had 6,621 Tcf of proved gas reserves in 2009, sufficient for 63 years of production at current levels. Unconventionals remain to be appraised in detail globally, but could add another 30 years of supply.…
LNG trade grows twice as fast as global gas production LNG exports by basin LNG imports by region Bcf/d Bcf/d 70 70 Middle East Other 60 Pacific Basin 60 non-OECD Asia Atlantic Basin OECD Asia 50 50 Europe 40 40 30 30 20 20 10…
and imports grow most in Europe and in non-OECD Asia LNG supply is projected to grow 4.4% p.a. to 2030, more than twice as fast as total global gas production (2.1% p.a.). Its share in global gas supply increases from 9% in 2010 to…
Electricity demand will continue to be closely tied to income Electricity and income since 1990 World power generation MWh per capita Thousand TWh 10 40 China Renewables South Korea 2.6% p.a. 8 Malaysia 30 Hydro Thailand 2030 6…
as power generation shifts to lower carbon fuels Historically there has been a strong correlation between income and electricity demand. We expect that relationship to persist but to be modified by efforts to promote end-use…
Coal continues to grow despite losing share in power Coal demand by sector OECD Non-OECD Asia RoW Mtoe Mtoe Mtoe 3500 3500 3500 Oil Other 3000 3000 3000 2500 2500 2500 2000 2000 Industry 2000 1500 1500 1500 1000 1000 1000 Power…
but growth decelerates with non-OECD industrialisation Coal is in decline in the OECD (-1.2% p.a. 2010-30), but this is more than offset by growth in the non-OECD (2% p.a.). In China and India the phase of rapid consumption growth…
What can bend the trend 63 BP 2011
1. The future path of global economic growth Primary energy consumption Differences from Base Case, 2030 Billion toe 20 20% GDP High GDP Case Base 15% Case Primary 15 10% Energy Oil Low GDP 5% Case 10 0% Gas -5% Coal 5 -10%…
is a major source of uncertainty for energy demand The performance of the global economy is key to energy demand growth. Our high and a low growth cases explore the implications for energy markets of different assumptions on the…
2. Stronger policy action on climate change CO2 emissions from energy use Sources of carbon abatement versus Base Case, 2030 Billion tonnes CO2 40 2030 Base Case 2020 Iraq 5.4 billion tonnes 35 reduction CCS Policy Fuel Case 30…
could see emissions starting to fall by 2030 A Policy Case explores the implications of more aggressive policies to address climate change. We assume that a wide range of policy tools are deployed, including putting a price on carbon.…
The impact of greater energy efficiency and fuel switching Global liquids demand Differences from Base Case by fuel, 2030 Mb/d Mtoe 105 Base 200 100 Case Renewables 95 0 Hydro Policy 90 Nuclear Case 85 Liquids -200 80 Coal 75…
will differ across fuels and regions in the Policy Case The oil market path in the Policy Case will depend crucially on OPECs ability to accommodate lower demand and to manage prices. As with other fuels, lower oil prices (because of…
3. Chinas pathway Industrialisation Energy per capita Industry share - % of GDP Toe / person 50 9 US 1820-2009 China 2009 45 8 Japan 1885-2009 7 40 6 35 5 30 Japan 1870-2009 4 25 3 20 US 1879-2009 2 15 1 China 1913-2030…
shows relatively low energy growth China will be the worlds biggest economy by 2030, and the question has often been raised as to whether energy growth can be sufficient to support high economic growth in China, or indeed in the…
4. Energy security: Mixed news... Mtoe OECD Europe US China 1500 100% Oil & Gas Consumption 1250 75% 1000 750 50% 500 25% 250 Oil & Gas Production 0 0% 1990 19902010 2030 20301990 19902010 2030 20301990 19902010 2030…
on the gap between consumption and production Energy trade continues to increase; the implications for the gap between production and consumption (a proxy for net imports) vary by region and fuel. The import share of oil and gas in…
Key themes 75 BP 2011
Energy and the economy Global energy consumption growth continues, driven by industrialisation in the developing world but efficiency improvements are likely to accelerate. World primary energy use is projected to grow by an annual…
Global fuel mix The global fuel mix continues to diversify and for the first time, non-fossil fuels will be major sources of supply growth. The contribution of fossil fuels to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83%…
Energy and carbon emissions Energy policy and technology lead to a slow-down in the growth of CO2 emissions from energy use but not fast enough to put the world on a safe carbon trajectory. Global emissions growth decelerates from…
Emerging energy patterns Energy policy is driven by security as well as by climate change concerns with diverse outcomes across fuels and regions. OECD oil demand has peaked in 2005 and by 2030 will roughly be back at the level of…
Data sources BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2010 Cedigaz, Paris, France Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C., United States Etemad, B., J. Luciani, P. Bairoch, and J.-C.…
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