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AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co

Tudor Pickering Holt & Co · Aug 11, 2014 · 27 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 1
    US Oil Supply Study August 2014 Dave Pursell Matt Portillo Jeoffrey Lambujon **IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 26**
  2. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 2
    Summary US oil and condensate production growth should continue through the end of the decade 4.8mmbopd of growth (2020 vs. 2013), but pace slows towards 2020 Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford account for 81% of net growth We forecast the…
  3. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 3
    Key Takeaways We performed a detailed bottoms-up forecast of seven emerging oil basins using current type curves and basin-specific activity assumptions to achieve annual production estimates through 2020. In our base case scenario: Oil…
  4. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 4
    Implications US oil production growth of 800kbpd per year of mainly light sweet crude has several implications: The pressure to allow oil exports will grow along with supply. We doubt free-flowing US oil exports occur in the next couple…
  5. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 5
    The Good Stuff:
  6. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 6
    US Oil Production Forecast: Buckle Your Seatbelts Actuals Forecast 2020E vs. Oil (mbopd) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2013A Permian 863 907 1,009 1,188 1,346 1,575 1,836 2,100 2,385 2,645…
  7. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 7
    Oil Summary TPH Estimated Oil Production 14,000 12,000 SCOOP 10,000 GW, Tonk, Cle 8,000 MS Lime mbopd Niobrara 6,000 Eagle Ford Bakken 4,000 Permian Other 2,000 - 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E…
  8. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 8
    Condensate:
  9. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 9
    What About Condensate TPHe Eagle Ford Two-Stream Liquids Production (mbopd) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E…
  10. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 10
    Defining Eagle Ford Condensate: Liquids 50API Eagle Ford data from several thousand wells Black oils are identified as 70 having initial producing gas- 65 oil-ratios below 2,000 60 scf/bbl andgravities below Produced Liquid…
  11. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 11
    Condensate-GOR Relationship For those who like tables Average GOR by Liquids Grav ity 25,000 30.00-34.99 API 20,000 35.00-39.99 API 15,000 40.00-44.99 API scf/stb 45.00-49.99 API 10,000 50.00-54.99 API 55.00-59.99 API…
  12. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 12
    Rig Count Assumptions Future rig count growth will be centered in the Permian basin, but SCOOP and Niobrara are also important Actuals Forecast 2020E vs. Rig Count 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E…
  13. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 13
    Rigs Summary Horizontals TPH Estimated Horizontal Rig Count 1,800 1,600 1,400 SCOOP 1,200 GW, Tonk, Cle 1,000 of Rigs MS Lime Niobrara 800 Eagle Ford 600 Bakken 400 Permian 200 - 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A…
  14. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 14
    Sensitivities:
  15. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 15
    What if rig count was 10% higher each year 2014+ Actuals Forecast 2020E vs. Oil (mbopd) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2013A Permian 863 907 1,009 1,188 1,346 1,609 1,923 2,226 2,548 2,841…
  16. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 16
    What if rig count was 10% lower each year 2014+ Actuals Forecast 2020E vs. Oil (mbopd) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2013A Permian 863 907 1,009 1,188 1,346 1,540 1,749 1,974 2,222 2,448 2,678…
  17. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 17
    What if Permian rig count flattened 2014+ Actuals Forecast 2020E vs. Oil (mbopd) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2013A Permian 863 907 1,009 1,188 1,346 1,575 1,799 1,966 2,114 2,219 2,308 2,386…
  18. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 18
    Appendix Individual Basins:
  19. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 19
    Permian Forecast TPHe Permian Oil Production 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Oil (mbopd) 858 863 907 1,009 1,188 1,346 1,575 1,836 2,100 2,385 2,645 2,908 3,187 Base Oil Production…
  20. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 20
    Eagle Ford Forecast TPHe Eagle Ford Oil Production 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Oil (mbopd) 12 19 68 230 564 962 1,251 1,477 1,695 1,873 2,015 2,137 2,246 Base Oil Production…
  21. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 21
    Bakken Forecast TPHe Bakken Oil Production 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Oil (mbopd) 200 253 359 513 801 1,025 1,126 1,299 1,436 1,571 1,700 1,769 1,770 Base Oil Production Forecast…
  22. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 22
    Niobrara Forecast TPHe Niobrara Oil Production 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Oil (mbopd) 45 53 60 75 100 152 230 311 398 482 547 601 647 Base Oil Production Forecast 700 600…
  23. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 23
    SCOOP Forecast TPHe SCOOP Oil Production 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Oil (mbopd) 1 1 1 2 4 11 33 70 110 141 157 156 147 Base Oil Production Forecast 180 160 140 120 mbopd…
  24. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 24
    MS Lime Forecast TPHe MS Lime Oil Production 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Oil (mbopd) 45 45 48 55 73 93 111 131 145 162 181 194 205 Base Oil Production Forecast 250 200 150…
  25. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 25
    GW, Cleveland, Tonkawa Forecast TPHe GW, Tonk, Cle Oil Production 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Oil (mbopd) 44 54 71 105 121 122 125 129 133 137 140 142 145 Base Oil Production…
  26. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 26
    Analyst Certification We, Dave Pursell, Matt Portillo, & Jeoffrey Lambujon do hereby certify that, to the best of our knowledge, the views and opinions in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the company and…
  27. AUGUST 2014 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – slide 27
    RESEARCH SALES TRADING Oil Service / E&C E&P Macro Houston Denver Houston - (800) 507-2400 Jeff Tillery Matt Portillo Dave Pursell Clay Coneley Win Oberlin Scott McGarvey 713-333-2964 713-333-2995 713-333-2962 713-333-2979…

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