Welcome (Back) To The Renaissance October 27, 2011 Dan Pickering
A Snapshot of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Research Sales & Energy Focused Trading Investment Investment Banking Management Houston, Denver, NYC, London 2
Anything Could Happen In The Next Couple Of Years 3
North American Renaissance Unfolding Shale Gas Provides A Roadmap Natural Gas Unlikely To Get Worse Oil Is A Global Market Demand Will Recover Efficiency Will Improve 4
A New Sheriff in TownMr. Unconventional U.S. Rig Activity by Drilling Type 100% Horizontal or Directional Vertical 90% 80% 70% U.S. Land Rig Count 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5 Source: Baker Hughes
Unconventional Plays Popping Up Everywhere 6
And The Sheriffs Got Two Deputies Mr. Oily and Mr. Liquids-Rich 1,800 Gas 1,600 Oil 1,400 U.S. Land Rig Count 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 7 Source:…
Where Are People Spending Their Capital Grouped Shale Rig Count Group A: Barnett, Haynesville, Fayetteville, Woodford Group B: Bakken, Marcellus, Eagle Ford, MS Lime, Granite Wash 700 600 500 400 Barnett, Haynesville,…
Liquids Growth Is Going To Be Meaningful Forecast Liquids Growth from Eagle Ford and Granite Wash 1,800 1,600 1,400 Thousand Barrels/Day 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E…
It Isnt All Wine And Roses US Natural Gas Production From Shales 25 20 24 bcf/day by YE 2013 Natural Gas Production (bcf/d) 15 10 5 0 12/99 12/00 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11…
Gas Production (Bcf/d) 0% 100% 20% 30% 50% 60% 80% 90% 10% 40% 70% Marcellus Eagle Ford Haynesville Fayetteville Shale San Juan/ Raton Wind River Woodford Conv Arkoma Unita 5/mcf GOM Shelf Other CO…
Caveat To Prior Slide This Is The President Of Waiting For Gas To Get Better Club 12
North American OilpatchA Real Industrial Business Steve Austin Era (1985-2005) -Mediocre Commodity Prices -Low Prospect Inventory -Blocking And Tackling -Production Declines A Man Barely Alive Bionic Man Era (2005-2025+) -Decent…
What Can Go (Really) Wrong MacondoLike Event(s) Government Interaction Technology Leapfrog/ Obsolescence Protracted Economic Malaise The Next Unconventional Play Overproduction Status Quo For Next Decade Would Be Just Fine…
What Should We Expect Decades Of Opportunity Ongoing Transition From Gold Rush To Development Increased Focus On Productivity International UptakeBut Slowly More Consolidation Cycles Within An Uptrend Best Underlying…
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