BUSINESS PLAN 2010 - 2014 Webcast Jos Sergio Gabrielli CEO Almir Barbassa STRATEGIC PLAN 2020 PETROBRAS CFO 1
CHALLENGES TO WORLD OIL SUPPLY Natural decline requires finding new reserves to meet world demand 120 110 Scenario: Business as Usual 100 90 Scenario: Sustainable Development Required Addition to Capacity 80 70 2020: 43 48 MM…
PRIMARY DEMAND FOR ENERGY Despite growth of alternatives, oil will maintain its importance Average Annual Change Business as Usual Sustainable 17,324 Development 17,236 Traditional Biomass 7% 6% 2% 1% 1% 1% +4.2% p.y. +7.8% p.y.…
DEMAND FOR PETROLEUM Developing country demand should exceed reduced OECD demand Per capita petroleum consumption 30 Petroleum demand 2009-2030 (variation million bpd) per capita - barrels per year 1980 2000 2009 25 20…
OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION TARGETS: SUPERMAJORS AND PETROBRAS Petrobras has the highest growth rate target of the industry 6000 Petrobras: 3.9 MM boe/d in 2014 5500 and 5.4 MM boe/d in 2020 5000 ExxonMobil: Production growth rate 3-4%…
PETROBRAS CORPORATE STRATEGY to 2020 Integrated, profitable growth, on a sustainable basis Commitment to Sustainable Development Integrated Growth Profitability Social and Environmental Responsibility Expand operations in target…
BUSINESS PLAN 2010-14: US 224 BILLION Increased investment for integrated operations in Brazil Business Segment 1% 2% 1% Brazil and Abroad 2% 3.5 8% 5.1 3.5 International 2.5 2.8 5% 17.8 11.7 118.8 53% 73.6 212.3…
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 2010-2014 PORTFOLIO Increased spending on infrastructure, logistics, value chain in Brazil 31.6 (17.0) 10.3 (6.8) 19.2 224 186.6 CAPEX 2010-2014 New Projects Change in Change in Change in 2010-2014 in…
APPROVAL STATUS OF 2010-2014 PORTFOLIO Flexibility to adjust Capex for projects in Phases I and II US 224 Billion 686 projects 0.4% 0,9 0,9 0.9 26.5% Phase I 59.4 Phase II 122.6 Phase III 54.7% 122.6 17.5 17.5 7.9% Phase IV…
LOCAL CONTENT PARTICIPATION 2010-2014 Brazilian suppliers expected to provide nearly 70% of total needs Capex in Brazil (US billion) Distribution and Biofuels (100%) Purchased in Brazilian 100 % Investments Gas & Energy Business…
Goals and Principal Projects STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS 2020 12
OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION TARGETS 2010-2020 Domestic targets unchanged, international targets reduced Production curve for domestic oil gas production consistent with prior Business Plan Projected international production reduced as a…
PRINCIPAL PROJECTS SCHEDULED DURING 2010-2014 Updated business plan added new projects Mexilho Mexilho Marlim Marlim Sul Sul Guar Guar Pilot Pilot FPSO FPSO Tupi Tupi NE NE Pilot Pilot NG Antecipation Antecipation of of NG…
E&P-BRAZIL INVESTMENTS 2010-2014 Continued emphasis on Post-Salt acreage, growing spending on Pre-Salt Pre-Salt Post-Salt US 33.0 Billion US 75.2 Billion 3% 13% 15% 18% 0.9 11.4 4.3 13.7 27.8 50.1 84% 67% Exploration…
NEW VESSELS AND PURCHASE OF NEW EQUIPMENTS Petrobras critical resources demand will drive Brazilian and international industry Delivery Plan (to be contracted) Current Situation Accumulated Value Critical Resources (Dec/09) By 2013 By…
Market Demand, Goals and Principal Activities RTM (Refining, Transportation and Marketing) and PETROCHEMICALS BUSINESS PLAN STRATEGIC PLANPETROBRAS PETROBRAS2020 2020 17 17
BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION, REFINING AND DEMAND Long term plans to achieve greater balance and integration 124% Production as a % of refining 132% 110% kbpd 13% 2,980 3,950 1,971 2,356 3,196 1,933 2,260 1,791 2,794 1,393…
BRAZILIAN DEMAND AND REFINING CAPACITY Strong Brazilian GDP growth projected to increase demand 3.4% p.y. PREMIUM I PREMIUM I 3,196 Thousand bpd Clara (1 phase) (2 fase) RNE 300 thou. bpd 300 thous. 3000 Camaro 230 thous. bpd (2014)…
RTM AND PETROCHEMICALS INVESTMENTS 2010-2014 New refineries, fuel quality, and modernization account for 70% of capex US 73.6 Billion Additional capacity: 3% 1% Refinery NE 6% Premium I 11% Comperj Quality and conversion 50%…
Demand, Goals and Principal Activities GAS, ENERGY AND GAS CHEMICAL BUSINESS PLAN PETROBRAS 2020 STRATEGIC PLAN STRATEGIC PLANPETROBRAS PETROBRAS2020 2020 21
NATURAL GAS MARKET AND POWER CAPACITY Growth in natural gas demand, consolidation in Thermo Power capacity Natural Gas Demand 130* Million m3/day 32 4 41 46 14.4 2.0 53 24.3 5.3 2009 2014 Electrical Generation Industrial…
NATURAL GAS BASED FERTILIZERS Fertilizer plants to take advantage of available gas and infrastructure UFN III (sep/14) UFN IV Ammonia: (dec/15) 81th. ton/year Urea 763 th. Urea 1.210 th. ton/year ton/year 2,911 Ammonia…
GAS, POWER AND GAS CHEMICAL INVESTMENTS 2010-2014 Transition from investment in infrastructure to gas demand flexibility Investments 2010-14 US 17.8 billion 15% Completion of the natural gas transport 30% 2.7 and processing…
Goals and Main Projects DISTRIBUTION INTERNATIONAL BIOFUELS BUSINESS PLAN PETROBRAS STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS2020 2020 25
DISTRIBUTION INVESTMENTS 2010-2014 Leading the Brazilian market for distribution, increasing the market share BR market share in the total and automotive market (%) 38.6 40.0 30.6 33.6 30.4 22.4 2004 2009 2014 BR market…
INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY Reduced allocation of capex, with focus on upstream INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION OF OIL AND GAS Ramp up of existing developments, BP 2010 - 2014 stable production in long term Thousand bpd 800 Reduced investment…
BIOFUEL TARGETS AND INVESTMENTS 2010-2014 Continued expansion and integration with oil products Ethanol Production Production Capacity of Biodiesel in Brazil Thous. m/year Thous. m/year 2,600 % 747 3% +47 +19 507 886…
Targets and Goals, HSE, Technology, and Research and Developments RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT BUSINESS PLAN PETROBRAS STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS2020 2020 29
TECNOLOGICAL CHANGES 3 Key pillars Expanding Limits New Exploratory Maximizing Developing Development of Sediments and Solutions for Operational Middle distillate Frontier recovery factor Production, new generation other fuels…
ENGINEERING CHALLENGES Competitiveness/ Sustainability Using international engineering patterns and metrics in our facility projects Simplification and Standardization Brazilian Content Reduction in the complexity…
R&D INVESTMENTS ALLOW TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP WITH ESTRUTURA FOCUS IN HSECORPORATIVA DE RESPOSTA CDA / BASES AVANADAS / ED Investments in HSE, IT and R&D US 11.4 Billion 29% HSE 46% IT R&D 25% Continued spending of…
Cash generation and Funding needs PLAN FINANCING BUSINESS PLAN STRATEGIC PLANPETROBRAS PETROBRAS2020 2020 33
FORECASTED OIL PRICE VERSUS Business PLAN 2010-2014 Petrobras base case planning price at lower end of forecast range Forecasts: CERA, 140 PIRA, WoodMackenzie, EIA e 130 IEA. 120 110 98 100 90 84 78 80 75 72 69 70 59…
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL INDICATORS 2009-2013 vs. 2010-2014 Stable cash flows with increasing investments INDEX 2010-2014 2009-2013 Plan Plan FX Rate (R/US) 1.78 2.00 2010 76 2009 58 2011 78 2010 61 Brent for Funding (US/bbl) 2012 82…
CASH GENERATION AND INVESTMENT Profitable investments funded with cash flow, debt and equity capital PROJECTED Operating Cash Flow (2010 2014) Cash Amortization US 11 billion US 38 billion Funding (debt + equity) US 96 billion…
CHALLENGES Capacity to execute a huge portfolio project Strength and reliability of supply chain Resource management and efficiency Human Resources challenges Funding requirements STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS 2020 37
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