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Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA

EIA · Apr 16, 2012 · 28 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 1
    IEA and EIA: Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency April 16, 2012 Paris, France by Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator U.S. Energy Information…
  2. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 2
    Missions and Functions: Similarities and Differences Howard Gruenspecht 2 IEA, April 16, 2012
  3. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 3
    Global Projections: Similarities and Differences Howard Gruenspecht 3 IEA, April 16, 2012
  4. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 4
    IEO2011 Reference case and WEO2011 Policies Scenarios IEO Reference case: Assumes current laws and policies Does not anticipate new policies or regulations that have not been implemented Includes alternative oil price scenarios and…
  5. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 5
    2011 IEO & WEO Comparisons Forecast Similarities: Global liquids demand Global natural gas demand Global total energy demand both project 1.6% annual growth Forecast Distinctions: EIA base case assumes only current policies and…
  6. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 6
    Non-OECD liquid fuels use surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future total liquids consumption million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 70 62 60 Non-OECD 50 48 46 OPEC OECD 40 40% 41 30 Other non-OECD…
  7. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 7
    World oil price assumptions 2010 dollars per barrel 160 120 80 WEO-2011 - Current Policies Scenario IEO2011 AEO2012 WEO-2011 - New Policies Scenario 40 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: EIA, AEO2012…
  8. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 8
    World liquid fuels supply, 2035 million barrels per day 60 53.9 IEO2011 50.1 WEO-2011 CPS 50 45.2 42.5 40 30 20 16.4 13.1 10 0 OPEC conventional Non-OPEC conventional Unconventional Source: EIA, IEO2010 and IEO2011; IEA,…
  9. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 9
    Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 30 2008 2035 25 20 15 10 5 0 Top 3 Middle East* Other Middle East OPEC Africa South America * Saudi…
  10. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 10
    Non-OPEC conventional supply growth comes mainly from Russia, United States, Brazil, and Kazakhstan Non-OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 14 2008 2035 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Russia United States Brazil…
  11. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 11
    National Petroleum Council Study Source: National Petroleum Council Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012 11
  12. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 12
    Oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70 percent of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels Unconventional production million barrels per day 6 2008 2035 5 4 3 2 1 0 Oil sands/bitumen Biofuels Extra-heavy oil…
  13. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 13
    Growth in energy consumption by country grouping, 2009-2035 percent per year WEO-2011 CPS 0.5 OECD 0.9 IEO2011 2.3 Non-OECD 2.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 Source: EIA, IEO2011; IEA, WEO-2011 13
  14. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 14
    Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand average annual change (2008-2035) percent per year 7 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population 6 5 4 3…
  15. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 15
    China and India account for about half of the world increase in energy use world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History Projections 400 Non-OECD Asia Other Non-OECD OECD 300 200 100 0 1990 2000 2008 2015 2025…
  16. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 16
    Growth in China energy consumption by fuel, 2009-2035 percent per year 12.0 IEO2011 WEO-2011 CPS 10.7 10.0 9.7 8.0 6.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.0 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.4 0.0 Liquids Natural gas Coal Nuclear Renewables…
  17. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 17
    Growth in India energy consumption by fuel, 2009-2035 percent per year 12.0 IEO2011 WEO-2011 CPS 10.2 10.0 8.4 8.0 6.0 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.0 Liquids Natural gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Total…
  18. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 18
    Energy consumption in the United States, China, and India, 1990-2035 quadrillion Btu History 2008 Projections 200 China 150 United States 100 50 India 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: EIA,…
  19. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 19
    U.S. Energy Projections: A Deeper Dive Howard Gruenspecht 19 IEA, April 16, 2012
  20. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 20
    Growth in U.S. energy consumption percent per year 0.8 AEO2012 WEO-2011 CPS 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2009-2020 2020-2035 2009-2035 Source: EIA, AEO2012; IEA, WEO-2011 Howard Gruenspecht 20 IEA, April 16,…
  21. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 21
    Growth in U.S. energy consumption by fuel, 2009-2035 percent per year 4.0 3.5 IEO2011 AEO2012 WEO-2011 CPS 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 Liquids…
  22. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 22
    In the AEO2012 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to pre-recession levels by 2035 billion metric tons carbon dioxide History 2005 2010 Projections 7 6 5 Energy-related CO2 emissions 4 2005 2020 2035 3…
  23. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 23
    U.S. natural gas import prices 2010 dollars per million Btu 10 AEO2012 WEO-2011 CPS 9.0 9 8.4 8 7.7 7.0 6.8 7 6.1 5.8 6 5.5 5 4.5 4.4 4.5 3.9 4 3 2 1 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: EIA, AEO2012; IEA,…
  24. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 24
    Oil to natural gas price ratio remains high over the projection ratio of oil price to natural gas price History 2009 Projections 5 4 Oil and natural gas prices 2010 dollars per million Btu 30 History 2009 Projections 3 25 20…
  25. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 25
    Since 2000, U.S. shale gas production has increased 17-fold and now comprises about 30 percent of total U.S. dry production annual shale gas production (dry) trillion cubic feet 8 Rest of US Bakken (ND) Eagle Ford (TX) 6 Marcellus…
  26. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 26
    Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas production sources U.S. dry gas production trillion cubic feet per year History 2010 Projections 30 25 49% 20 Shale gas 23% 15 26% Tight gas 21% 10 9% Non-associated…
  27. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 27
    Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year History 2010 Projections 30 25 Consumption 20 Domestic supply 15 10 5 Net imports 0 -5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020…
  28. Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling for International Energy Agency – EIA – slide 28
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…

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