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US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA

EIA · Mar 14, 2013 · 30 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 1
    U.S. Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings March 14, 2013 Paris, France by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
  2. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 2
    Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040 Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy…
  3. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 3
    U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and slow, extended economic recovery U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History 2000 2011 Projections 120…
  4. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 4
    U.S. Shale Gas Adam Sieminski, IEA Bilateral Meetings, March 14, 2013 4
  5. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 5
    An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays can also have steep decline curves, which require continued drilling to grow production million cubic feet per year 2,000 Cumulative production = EUR 100% Haynesville…
  6. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 6
    For example: Oil production by monthly vintage of wells in the Williston Basin Source: DrillingInfo history through August 2012, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 forecast Adam Sieminski, IEA Bilateral Meetings, March 14,…
  7. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 7
    Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day 30 Rest of US Bakken (ND) 25 Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) 20 Haynesville (LA and TX) 15…
  8. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 8
    Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Shale gas 20 15 Non-associated offshore Tight gas 10 Alaska Coalbed methane…
  9. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 9
    Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 *Includes combined heat-and-power and…
  10. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 10
    Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel) marine and rail to come U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 3.0 2.5 28% 2.0 Gas to liquids 1.5…
  11. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 11
    Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet 6 5 4 Exports to Mexico 3 Exports to Canada 2 Lower 48 LNG exports 1 Alaska LNG exports 0…
  12. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 12
    Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Consumption 20 Domestic supply 15 10…
  13. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 13
    U.S. Tight Oil Adam Sieminski, IEA Bilateral Meetings, March 14, 2013 13
  14. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 14
    Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day 2.2 Eagle Ford 2.0 Bakken 1.8 Granite Wash 1.6 Bonespring 1.4 Monterey 1.2 Woodford 1.0…
  15. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 15
    U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 8 STEO Feb. 2013 U.S. crude oil…
  16. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 16
    U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 2011 million barrels per day 4 3 net product 2 exporter exports 1 0 -1 net…
  17. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 17
    U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2005 2011 Projections 25 20 Consumption 15 37% 60% 45% Net imports 10 Domestic supply 5 0…
  18. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 18
    Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day 10 AEO2012 8 AEO2013 6 4 2 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035…
  19. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 19
    Global tight oil production comparisons IEO2013 DRAFT BP Energy Outlook 2030 12 million barrels per day 10 Australia China Russia Argentina 8 Mexico Canada United States 6 4 2 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source:…
  20. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 20
    U.S. Coal and Electricity Adam Sieminski, IEA Bilateral Meetings, March 14, 2013 20
  21. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 21
    Over time the electricity mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables, but coal remains the largest fuel source U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 1993 History 2011 Projections 6 5 30% Natural gas 4 25%…
  22. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 22
    Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2012 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 2012 Reference Case 15 Carbon Fee 25 Carbon Fee 5 5 5 2010 4 4 4 24% Natural gas…
  23. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 23
    Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Energy prices to the electric power sector 2011 dollars per Btu 2011 8 10 History 2011…
  24. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 24
    U. S. electricity use and economic growth, 1950-2040 Percent growth, 3-year rolling average 2011 14% History Projections 12% 10% 8% Electricity Use 6% 2011 2040 4% average GDP 2.4% 2% 0.9% 0% -2% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990…
  25. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 25
    U.S. Renewables and Biofuels Adam Sieminski, IEA Bilateral Meetings, March 14, 2013 25
  26. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 26
    Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040 non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2011 Projections 600 Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible) 500 400 Wind…
  27. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 27
    Despite recent growth, ethanol and biodiesel provide a modest share of U.S. motor fuels biofuel consumption 12% 10% volume 8% Ethanol share of gasoline 6% energy 4% 2% Biodiesel share of distillate 0% 2000 2004 2008 2012…
  28. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 28
    Biofuels grow at a slow rate due to lower near-term crude oil prices and slow growth in sales of high-percentage ethanol blends such as E85 renewable fuel standard credits billions ethanol-equivalent gallons 40 Legislated RFS in 2022…
  29. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 29
    In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2005 2011 Projections 7 6 AEO2013 5 4 3 2005 2020 2040 (billion metric…
  30. US Energy Outlook for IEA Bilateral Meetings – EIA – slide 30
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…

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