Outlook for coal and electricity for National Coal Council November 1, 2013 Washington, DC by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Coal accounted for 20% of the domestic energy supplied in 2011; almost all of it was used to generate electricity Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2011 Howard Gruenspecht, National Coal Council November 1, 2013 2
In 2012, U.S. electricity generation was 69% fossil fuels, 19% nuclear, and 12% renewables January December 2012 January December 2012 net generation: non-hydro renewable net generation: Other gases 4,054 billion kWh 219 billion kWh…
Spot natural gas prices vary significantly across global markets since 2008 global spot natural gas, crude oil, and LNG prices U.S. dollars per million British thermal unit 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source:…
U.S. electricity output from natural gas and coal gigawatthours 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 coal natural gas Source: EIA, Electric Power Monthly Howard Gruenspecht, National Coal Council November 1, 2013 5
Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040 Period Annual Growth U.S. electricity use 1950s 9.8 percent growth (3-year rolling average) 1960s 7.3 History 2011 1970s 4.7 14 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 12…
The average delivered price of coal to electricity generators varies widely across U.S. regions transport costs are a key reason 2011 delivered coal prices, per million Btu 3.76 2.39 3.16 2.39 N/A 1.74 1.67 N/A 2.77…
The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely across U.S. regions (2011) Share of Generation by Fuel, 2011 National Average Minimum Maximum Coal 42% 0% 80% Natural Gas 25% 2% 87% Nuclear 19% 0% 41% Renewables 13% 1% 65%…
Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price energy prices to the electric power sector 2011 dollars per Btu 2011 8 10 History 2011…
The U.S. electricity mix in EIAs reference case gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in gas and renewable generation U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 1993 History 2011 Projections 6 5 30%…
The projected fuel mix for electricity generation by region (2040) Share of Generation by Fuel, 2040 National Average Minimum Maximum Coal 35% 0% 69% Natural Gas 30% 2% 81% Nuclear 17% 0% 36% Renewables 16% 1% 53% Oil / Other 1%…
With lower natural gas prices in the High Oil and Gas Resource Case, coal is permanently displaced as the leading generation source in the near future electricity net generation billion kilowatthours 2011 Projections 2,500 Reference…
Coal generation in alternative electricity sector CO2 fee cases billion kilowatthours History 2011 Projections 2,500 2,000 Reference 1,500 10 fee at 5% 10 fee at 7.5% 1,000 20 fee 30 fee 500 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025…
Projected electricity generation shares of different fuels are sensitive to fuel prices and policy developments 120% Higher / Lower Higher / Lower percent Electricity Higher / Lower Natural Gas Demand Coal Prices Prices GHG Cases…
U.S. coal production is very sensitive to both markets and policies million short tons 1,600 Low Coal Cost Low Oil and Gas Resource 1,400 Reference High Oil and Gas Resource High Coal Cost 1,200 GHG15 1,000 800 600 400 200…
Total U.S. natural gas production, consumption, and net imports in the Reference case, 1990-2040 natural gas supply and consumption trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 40 Net exports, 2040 (12%) Net imports, 2011 (8%) 30…
U.S. continues to be a net exporter of coal million short tons History 2011 Projections 1400 1200 Domestic Supply 1000 Consumption 800 600 400 200 0 Net imports -200 -400 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035…
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing sources of energy to 2040, but fossil fuels continue as the dominant fuels world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 28% 27% 200…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
Operating costs: existing plants with and without a value on carbon Fuel cost for existing coal and combined cycle The crossover point for least-cost natural gas units with a value placed on carbon dioxide emissions dispatch of coal…
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