Energy Efficiency in the Energy Outlook Santa Barbara Summit on Energy Efficiency May 12, 2010, Santa Barbara, CA Richard Newell, Administrator
Overview The global Energy Outlook The U.S. Energy Outlook Vehicle fuel economy in the Energy Outlook Residential and commercial energy efficiency in the Energy Outlook Energy efficiency efforts at DOE and EIA Concluding…
The Global Energy Outlook Richard Newell, Santa Barbara, May 12, 2010 3
Global energy use grows over 40%, and non-OECD countries account for 82% of the increase through 2030 Quadrillion Btu 800 OECD Non-OECD 637 678 700 596 552 600 472 508 500 59% 400 49% 300 200 51% 41% 100 0 2006 2010…
Worldwide economic activity, and population growth in some regions, drives increased energy use Percent per year 6.5 Population 5.5 GDP per Capita 4.5 Energy Use per GDP 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 ia ia n US…
Absent new policies, energy-related CO2 emissions grow 39% between 2006 and 2030 in EIAs reference case Billion Metric Tons 45 Non-OECD 40 OECD 35 30 25.8 23.7 25 21.5 19.5 15.4 17.6 20 15 10 13.6 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2…
The U.S. Energy Outlook Richard Newell, Santa Barbara, May 12, 2010 7
National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Richard Newell, Santa Barbara, May 12, 2010 8
Non-fossil energy use grows rapidly, but fossil fuels still provide 78 percent of total energy use in 2035 quadrillion Btu HR2454 History Projections Basic 120 Case Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) 100 Liquid biofuels 80…
Assuming no new policies, growth in energy-related CO2 is driven by electricity and transportation fuel use 2008 2035 Buildings and Electric Power Electric Power Industrial Buildings and 2,359 (41%) 2,634 (42%) 1,571 (25%)…
Key concepts Energy efficiency energy services provided per unit of energy consumption (e.g., MPG) driven by technology improvements Energy intensity of the economy primary energy consumption per unit of real GDP inverse of…
Energy and CO2 per dollar GDP continue to decline; per capita energy use also declines index, 2005=1 History Projections 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 Energy per capita 0.75 Energy per dollar GDP 0.50 CO2 per dollar GDP 0.25…
Examples of structural changes Buildings migration to moderate climates housing type shifts / commercial building mix Industry shifts to less energy-intensive industries growth of service sector relative to industry…
Structural drivers grow slower than GDP, thereby lowering energy intensity CAGR:growth Average annual 2008 rate - 2035 2008 2035 Macroeconomic Real Gross Domestic Product 2.4% Population 0.9% NEMS Sectoral Drivers Buildings…
Energy consumption would be 16% higher in 2035 without efficiency improvements; and 68% higher without structural change as well quadrillion Btu 200 192.0 Constant energy intensity estimate Structural 150 Constant energy efficiency…
Key drivers of energy efficiency changes in EIA analysis Market drivers energy prices technology costs and innovation consumer and investor behavior technology diffusion and stock turnover Government standards vehicle fuel…
Annual Energy Outlook 2010 includes 38 sensitivity cases of AEO2010 Case Description cases Reference EIAs starting point for projections through 2035 Lower and higher economic growth scenarios. Average annual rate of GDP from 2008 to…
Extended policies case illustrates the impact of continued efficiency standard increases under existing laws quadrillion Btu 120 110 100 No Sunset Extended Policies Reference 90 80 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
Vehicle fuel economy in the Energy Outlook Richard Newell, Santa Barbara, May 12, 2010 19
New light duty vehicle efficiency reaches 40 mpg by 2035 miles per gallon 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 History AEO2010 Ref case 10 AEO2010 High Oil Price case 5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Richard Newell, Santa Barbara,…
Mild and full hybrid systems dominate new alternative light- duty vehicle sales by 2035 millions 20 History Projections 18 16 14 12 Other 10 Electric/fuel cell 8 Plug-in hybrid electric Hybrid electric 6 Mild hybrid…
Extended increases in CAFE standards would become a binding driver of future fuel economy miles per gallon 50 40 30 Extended Policies achieved Extended Policies 20 Reference achieved Reference 10 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025…
Fuel economy and renewable fuel policies will be key forces in future light-duty vehicle energy consumption million barrels oil equivalent per day 12 10 8 6 No Sunset Extended Policies Reference 4 2 0 2005 2010 2015 2020…
Residential and commercial energy efficiency in the Energy Outlook Richard Newell, Santa Barbara, May 12, 2010 24
Growth in electricity use continues to slow 3-year rolling average percent growth Period Annual Growth History 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 Stru 1970s 4.7 12 ctur al C 1980s 2.9 han ge i 1990s 2.4 10 n Eco nom 2000-2008 0.9 y - Hi…
Alternative building energy efficiency cases Low technology case equipment and shells limited to what was available in 2009 no technology advance, but equipment stocks improve through turnover Reference case future technology…
Stock turnover and new technology will drive down building energy use per square foot AEO 2010 Best Available Low Technology Reference High Technology Technology 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% Percent…
But buildings growth and new residential uses could more than offset efficiency improvements Change in residential electricity consumption in the Reference case, 2008-2035 Lighting PCs and related equipment Laundry and dishwashing…
Alternate technology paths could imply a range of residential electricity consumption futures kilowatthours per year 2009 Technology, 2035 3,000 2008 Reference, 2035 2,500 Best Available Technology, 2035 2,000 1,500 1,000…
Efficiency improvements will also moderate the rate of commercial electricity demand growth Commercial floorspace (1.3 percent per year) Refrigeration Cooking Office equipment: personal computers Lighting Heating, cooling, and…
Other energy efficiency efforts at DOE and EIA Richard Newell, Santa Barbara, May 12, 2010 31
DOE Recovery Act investments by stage of technology ( million) Richard Newell, Santa Barbara, May 12, 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Energy 32
Recovery Act funds for DOE energy efficiency research, development, and deployment projects Category Project Million Weatherization Weatherization Assistance Program 5,000 State & Local Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants…
EIA planned expansion of energy consumption surveys Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) 1X = 5,000 households; 3X = 15,000 households Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) 1X = 6,500 buildings; 2X = 13,000…
2009 RECS content updated based on changing demand What is the size of your most used television 20 inches or less21 to 36 inchesmore than 36 inches What type of display does your most used television have Standard TubeFlat Screen…
Concluding remarks Market uptake tends to be considerably less efficient than best available technology market behavior and slow stock turnover tends to moderate the impact of new innovations Analysis cases illustrate a range of…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
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