Energy Outlook: Forecasting Diesel Fuel Prices Guy F. Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration American Trucking Association Diesel Fuel Conservation Strategies Workshop Arlington, VA June 19, 2008
WTI crude oil prices are expected to remain high dollars per barrel 160 History Projections 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Ja 1 Ja 2 Ja 04 Ja 03 Ja 05 Ja 06 Ja 7 Ja 8 9 Ju 1 Ju 4 Ju 2 Ju 3…
World oil consumption growth expected to accelerate in 2008 and 2009 annual growth, millions of barrels per day 2.7 Total World Oil Consumption Growth China U.S. Other 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 1991- 2001…
Global oil market balance is expected to loosen slightly in 2009 annual growth, millions of barrels per day History Projections 2.0 World Oil Consumption Growth 1.8 Non-OPEC Production Growth 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4…
OPEC spare capacity has remained low, with most OPEC countries producing at capacity millions of barrels per day History Projections 40 OPEC Crude Oil OPEC Crude Oil Production Production Capacity 30 20 10 0 1…
OECD commercial stocks decline from record highs to near-normal levels Change from 5-year average, million barrels 160 History Projections 120 80 40 0 -40 -80 -120 -160 -200 -240 04 05 02 03 06…
U.S. 4-week average total distillate demand growth has been negative Year-to-year 4-week average growth 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 6 2 4 27 17 10 31 21 12 23 14 25 15…
U.S. 4-week average total distillate imports are lower this year than the past 2 years thousand barrels per day 600 500 400 300 200 100 1/6 2/3 3/3 3/31 4/28 5/26 6/23 7/21 8/18 9/15 10/13 11/10 12/8 2006 2007 2008…
Distillate stocks are currently at the bottom of the average range History Projections million barrels 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 normal inventory range 90 8 9 7 4 5 6 08 09 06…
European distillate demand continues to grow OECD Europe Demand OECD Europe Demand thousand barrels per day Year-Over-Year Growth thousand barrels per day 7,000 800 6,500 600 400 6,000 200 5,500 0 5,000 12 per. Mov. Avg.…
OECD European commercial distillate stocks are at above-average levels million barrels 300 10-Year Average 2006 2007 2008 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 normal inventory range 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct…
Chinese oil demand shows strong yearly growth in recent years million barrels per day 9.0 Projection 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2006 2007 2008 International Energy Agency, June 2008
Much of Chinas oil demand growth in the last 2 years has come from gasoline and diesel annual growth, millions of barrels per day 400 350 Gasoline Middle Distillates 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998…
OECD Pacific commercial distillate stocks are at below-average levels million barrels 110 100 10-Year Average 2006 2007 2008 90 80 70 60 50 normal inventory range 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec…
2008 first quarter U.S. distillate exports are unusually high thousand barrels per day 400 Canada Latin America Europe Far East Other 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1
U.S. diesel prices are expected to decline, but remain high thousand barrels per day History Projections 4.80 4.40 4.00 3.60 3.20 2.80 On-Highway 2.40 Diesel 2.00 1.60 1.20 0.80 Wholesale Crude Oil Diesel 0.40 0.00…
Conclusions Crude oil prices are expected to remain very high for the foreseeable future Strong growth in the global demand for diesel fuel have added to retail diesel price pressures Retail diesel fuel prices are expected to…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008, full report, June 2008 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007, next update June…
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