U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook: Issues in Focus Bipartisan Policy Center: Understanding the New Energy Landscape John Conti, Assistant Administrator, Office of Energy Analysis June 27, 2012 Washington, D.C. U.S. Energy Information…
Overview Changes to the Reference Case Sensitivity/Scenarios Issues in Focus Articles Impact of extending and expanding certain energy policies Impact of alternative world oil prices on supply and demand Implications of…
Updated AEO2012 Reference Case The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) issued by the EPA in December 2011 was incorporated. Higher capital costs for fabric filters were adopted based on EPA data. Macroeconomic data based on the…
AEO2012 scenarios Reference High and low economic growth (2) High and low oil price (2) Demand sector technology cases (2011, High, and Buildings Best Available) (3) Integrated high and low technology (applied to demand sectors;…
AEO 2012 Issues and Focus Articles 1. No Sunset and Extended Policies cases 2. Oil price and production trends in AEO2012 3. Potential efficiency improvements and their impacts on end-use energy demand 4. Energy impacts of proposed CAFE…
No Sunset and Extended Policies Scenarios No Sunset case Extends the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for cellulosic biofuels of up to 1.01 per gallon through 2035 . Extends tax credits for renewable energy sources for energy-efficient…
No Sunset & Extended Policies Scenarios: Renewable energy consumption up and overall consumption down renewable electricity generation primary energy consumption billion kilowatthours quadrillion btu 1,000 110 No Sunset Extended…
Oil prices (LLS) in the Reference case rise steadily; the AEO2012 includes a wide range of prices average annual price of low sulfur light crude oil 2010 dollars per barrel History 2010 Projections 225 High oil price 200 175…
U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic production including biofuels and greater efficiency U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day 2025 2035 25 20 Net petroleum imports 15 Biofuels 49% including…
U.S. crude oil and natural gas resource uncertainty The AEO2012 contains 3 scenarios of alternative resource estimates for domestic oil and gas resources. Estimates vary by play. The Low Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) case…
Natural gas price projections vary based on resource base assumptions lower-48 average natural gas wellhead price 2010 dollars per thousand cubic feet History 2010 Projections 10 8 Low EUR Reference 6 High EUR 4 High TRR…
Uncertainty surrounding shale gas resource estimates can result in significantly different futures for natural gas production. U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year 2025 2035 35 30 25 Shale gas 20 15 Non- associated…
U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic production including biofuels and greater efficiency U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day 2025 2035 21 Net petroleum 18 imports 15 49% 12 Domestic…
Changes in the transportation sector fuel consumption landscape There are four different sections of the Issues in Focus that deal with transportation issues. The four scenarios highlighted here are: CAFE Standards: incorporates…
U.S. net import of liquid fuels across alternative transportation scenarios U.S. net imports of petroleum and other liquids million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 13 Reference High Technology Battery 11 HD NGV Potential…
Impacts of changes in fuel prices and environmental regulations on electric power markets The Issues in Focus contains 10 cases illustrating the impact of alternative fuel prices, recovery periods, demand levels, and environmental…
Sources of electric power generation can vary significantly in the projections depending on relative fuel prices and emissions standards. U.S. electricity generation by fuel trillion kilowatthours 2025 2035 6 5 Coal 4…
Non-hydro renewable sources grow nearly three-fold by 2035; growth climbs to nearly five-fold with a price on CO2 emissions non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours 2025 2035 800 Wind 600 400 Biomass…
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions do not reach 2005 levels throughout the projection period U.S. carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons carbon dioxide 2025 2035 7 6 5 4 Electric power 3 Industrial 2 Transportation…
Crude oil price and lower 48 natural gas wellhead price lower 48 average natural gas wellhead price and low sulfur light crude oil 2010 dollars per million Btu History 2010 Projections 30 25 Crude oil 20 15 10 Natural gas 5…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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