Why Are Oil Prices So High and Where are They Going Guy F. Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Global Finance Forum Washington, DC March 11, 2008 www.eia.doe.gov
Tight global oil market conditions are projected to continue through 2008. OPEC production decisions will continue to influence the oil market situation. Low surplus production capacity of 2 to 3 million barrels per day, concentrated…
Crude oil prices, having recently exceeded 100 per barrel, are projected to decline slowly over the forecast. 100 Crude prices often decline just 90 prior to winter 80 70 WTI Price 60 (Dollars per 50 Barrel) 40 But did not this…
OPEC cut crude oil production in 20064Q and 2007Q1 to firm world oil markets. Change in Quarterly Production 1.3 (million barrels per day) 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -1.2 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 Saudi Arabia Rest of…
OECD commercial stocks have fallen to the lower bound of the average range. 65 Forecast 60 55 Days supply 50 45 40 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 05 07 03 04 06 08 09 l-0 l-0…
Market balance should loosen as demand growth slows and non-OPEC supply growth increases. World Oil Consumption Growth Non-OPEC Production Growth 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 Million 0.8 Barrels…
We expect OPEC surplus production capacity to remain low until 2009. 6.0 5.0 4.0 Million Barrels 3.0 per Day 2.0 1.0 0.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook
Dollar-based economies have experienced higher oil prices than those with other currencies. 120 100 95.39 80 per barrel West Texas Intermdiate 60 64.68 (Dollars/Euros per Barrel) 40 per barrel 20 0 Jan-02 Jan-03…
Multiple and hard-to-predict factors drive oil prices. Non-OPEC Hedge Fund OPEC Supply Growth Activity Production Decisions Chinas Oil Demand Weather Iraq Iran Economic Growth Refinery Venezuela Outages Value of U.S.…
World oil prices ease in the near-term, but are likely to remain high relative to historic standards 200 180 160 High Oil Price Case Nominal Dollars per Barrel 120 113 Reference Case 80 69 40 Low Oil Price Case 0…
Why do we think prices will decline over the next ten years Production increases are expected in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries Nigeria, Angola, and Saudi Arabia Azerbaijan, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and U.S. Gulf of Mexico The high…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007 Examples of Special Analyses Economic…
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