The Outlook for Coal and its Sensitivity to GHG Limitation for 15th Annual Platts Coal Properties & Investment Conference Marriott Hotel West Palm Beach, Florida by Howard Gruenspecht Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy…
Outline Coal outlook to 2030 under current policies Electricity Other Sectors Production Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions Potential impact of GHG limitation policies 1
U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 40 History Projections 35.0 30 27.5 24.2 22.8 Electric Power 20 10 Coal to Liquids Other 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2 Annual…
3-Year Rolling Average Electricity Demand Growth (with exponential trend line) 12% History Projections 10% Time Annual Period Growth 1950s 10.5% 8% 1960s 7.3% 1970s 4.2% 1980s 2.6% 6% 1990s 2.3% 2000-2005 1.4% 4% 2005-2030…
U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel, 2006-2030 (gigawatts) 60 Natural Gas Coal Renewables 40 Nuclear 20 0 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 4
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2005 and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 4,000 2005 2030 57 - - percent of total 3,000 50 2,000 15 16 1,000 19 19 9 9 3 2 0 Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Renewable Petroleum 5
Coal Consumption in the Industrial and Buildings Sectors and at Coal-to-Liquids Plants, 2005, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 2.0 Other Industrial 1.5 Coal to Liquids Coke Plants Residential and Commercial 1.0 0.5 0.0…
Coal Production by Region, 1970-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 40 History Projections 30 Total 20 West 10 Appalachia Interior 0 1970 1985 1995 2005 2015 2030 7
Distribution of Coal to Domestic Markets by Supply and Demand Regions, including Imports, 2005 and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) Supply Region Demand East of the Mississippi River Appalachia Interior West Imports Total Supply…
Average Minemouth Price of Coal by Region, 1990-2030 (2005 dollars per million Btu) 2.00 U.S. Average, 1.84 Nominal Dollars Appalachia 1.50 Interior U.S. Average 1.00 1.00 West 0.50 History Projections 0.00 1990 1995…
Average Delivered Coal Prices, 1990-2030 (2005 dollars per million Btu) 2.50 High Coal Cost High Growth 2.00 Reference High Price 1.50 Low Price Low Growth Low Coal Cost 1.00 0.50 History Projections 0.00 1990 1995…
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030 (million metric tons) 9,000 History Projections 8,000 7,000 7,950 in 2030 6,000 6,944 in 2020 6,214 in 2010 5,000 Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2030 (metric tons…
Synergies and Conflicts Among Policies and Impacts of Potential Policies to limit US GHG Emissions 12
Energy Security and GHG Emission Reduction: some synergies (S), some conflicts (C) (S) Improved vehicle efficiency: lowers GHG emissions and oil demand/imports (=more energy security) (S/C) Biomass: should it back out coal used in…
Policy Changes Could Significantly Affect the Outlook for Electricity Markets As previously noted, EIA Reference Case projections are generally based on existing laws and policies. In recent reports, EIA has examined the energy…
GHG Cap & Trade Analysis Cases GHG Intensity Safety Valve Price Reduction Goal (2004 dollars per metric ton Case Name (percent per year) CO2 equivalent) Other 2010-2019 2020-2030 2010 2030 Cap-Trade 1 2.4 2.8 6.16 9.86 Cap-Trade 2…
Total GHG Emissions in Alternative Cases (million metric tons CO2 equivalent) 10,000 8,000 6,000 Reference Cap-Trade 1 Cap-Trade 2 4,000 Cap-Trade 3 Cap-Trade 4 2004 Level 2,000 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012…
GHG Emissions Reduction in 2020 in Alternative Cases (million metric tons CO2 equivalent) 1,400 Energy Related CO2 Other Greenhouse Gases 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Cap-Trade 1 Cap-Trade 2 Cap-Trade…
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Reductions in 2020 (million metric tons CO2) 1,000 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric Power 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Cap-Trade 1 Cap-Trade…
Coal Generation in Alternative Cases (billion kilowatthours) 4,000 Reference Cap-Trade 1 Cap-Trade 2 Cap-Trade 3 Cap-Trade 4 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2004 2020 2030 As the emissions…
Loading...
