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Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy

Bentek Energy · Aug 14, 2012 · 25 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 1
    Natural Gas, Liquids and Crude Oil Market Outlook North America 2012 and Beyond August 14th, 2012 On behalf of: for: 1
  2. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 2
    BENTEK Energy Market Information Agenda: U.S. Supply, Demand and Storage Outlook Macro Supply Implications on North American Market Liquids and Crude Oil Forecast Demand Response for Nat Gas and Impact on Henry Hub…
  3. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 3
    US Net Long 1.2 Bcf/d Year to Date Supply Side Demand Side Can Imports Dom Prod Industrial Res/Com Demand Supply Power LNG 4.9 3.1 2.2 -3.8 1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 www.BentekEnergy.com 3
  4. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 4
    Production Catching Up To Demand Pushing Out LNG and Canadian Imports 2000 2011 70.0 1990 11.34 Bcf/d 3.75 Bcf/d 65.0 3.74 Bcf/d 60.0 55.0 50.0 Bcf/d 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 Dry Production Total Demand…
  5. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 5
    Storage Surplus Starts Injection Season at Over 900 Bcf Inventories Vs. Rolling Five Year Average (Bcf) Shed 1000 541 Bcf 927 Bcf in 18 800 Weeks 2 years 6 Weeks 600 386 Bcf 400 200 0 -200 Inventory Surplus…
  6. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 6
    Storage Headed for Record Highs U.S. Storage Inventories (Tcf) 4.5 4.2 3.9 Assumes ending Inventory of 3.96 Tcf average weekly injection of 3.6 60 Bcf over next 12 weeks. 334 3.3 Bcf 3.0 386 Bcf 2.7 2.4 927 2.1 Bcf…
  7. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 7
    U.S. Production Reaches New Highs 66.0 64.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 Bcf/d 56.0 54.0 Maintenance & 2010 Avg. = 57.1 Bcf/d Freeze-offs 52.0 2011 Avg. = 61.5 Bcf/d 50.0 2012 YTD Avg. = 63.7 Bcf/d 48.0 2010 2011 2012 2012…
  8. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 8
    Gas Rigs Plummet as Producers Turn to Oil and Liquids 3,500 70 Dry Gas Production (Bcf/d) 3,000 60 Active Rig Count 2,500 50 2,000 40 1,500 30 1,000 20 500 10 - - Gas Seeking Rigs Oil Seeking Rigs Dry Gas…
  9. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 9
    Liquids Providing Uplift, Under Pressure Lately 25 WTI HH MB NGL 20 15 /MMbtu 10 5 0 www.BentekEnergy.com 9
  10. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 10
    Rates of Return Falling , Even in Wet Plays Bakken 48% Pinedale 19% Niobrara 13% MarcellusDry 22%/ Uinta 29% 49% 69% Cleve/Tonk 40% MarcellusWet 5% Piceance Miss Lime 53% 60% Granite Wash154% 47% 5% Arkoma-Wood Dry 29%…
  11. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 11
    Oil Plays Remain at the Top of the IRR Stack 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Price Assumptions: Gas = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point as of June, 2012 (price range 3.26-3.49/Mcf)…
  12. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 12
    Crude Oil Production Forecast Through 2016 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 000s b/d 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 1973 2,000 1,000 0 1900-2007 2008-2010 2011-2016 www.BentekEnergy.com Source: BENTEK, EIA, Excludes NGLs and Other…
  13. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 13
    Oil Rigs Keep Gaining Ground 222/+143 21/+12 3/-3 38/+13 82/+44 16/+12 3/-5 40/+22 234/+121 513/+302 275/+191 Liquids Rich/Oil Focused Areas www.BentekEnergy.com Note: Active rig count: May 2012 / Change in rig…
  14. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 14
    Unconventional Oil Plays Turning The Corner Bakken +770 Niobrara +254 Growth 2011 2016 Anadarko 3.5 MMb/d +250 Permian +969 +1224 Eagle Ford www.BentekEnergy.com Source: BENTEK Crude Awakening Report 14
  15. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 15
    Drilling Rig Equivalencies One Rig Haynesville Gas Production Equivalent 53.7 36.8 12.8 13.0 6.8 2.0 2.1 2.6 4.0 1.0 1.5 1.9 www.BentekEnergy.com 15
  16. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 16
    What Gas Basins Win and What Basins Lose July 2012 vs. December 2012 Projection 800 600 400 MMcf/d 200 - (200) (400) (600) www.BentekEnergy.com 16
  17. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 17
    Northeast Production Potential 15.5 Bcf/d by 2017 Northeast Production Profile (Bcf/d) 16.0 14.0 Incremental 10.8 12.0 Bcf/d by 2017 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Barnett 0.0 Marcellus Legacy Production Lean Marcellus Wet…
  18. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 18
    U.S. Dry Gas Production Forecast to Grow 12.8 Bcf/d from 2011 to 2017 80.0 +2.3 Bcf/d Per Year 72.2 74.3 70.0 67.1 68.9 61.5 63.9 64.2 60.0 57.1 54.0 55.2 48.6 50.9 50.0 47.5 40.0 +2.1 Bcf/d Per Year 30.0 20.0 10.0…
  19. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 19
    Gas Demand from Power Up 4.9 Bcf/d (24%) in 2012 40.0 Highest weekly avg. burns ever 37.5 35.0 32.5 30.0 27.5 Bcf/d 25.0 22.5 20.0 17.5 15.0 12.5 10.0 5 Yr. Avg. 2011 2012 www.BentekEnergy.com 19
  20. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 20
    Power Burn Up Significantly in 2012 but Hotter Temps May Suppress YOY Increase Power Burn Per Degree (Bcf/d) 35 30 3 Bcf 25 20 6 Bcf 15 10 5 0 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Degrees Fahrenheit 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2011…
  21. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 21
    Barrage of EPA Regs Hit Power Sector Significant EPA regulations affecting the power industry include: 1. Mercury Air Toxics Standards (MATS) a) Finalized in Dec. 2011. b) Affects about 396 GW of Coal and Oil Power Plants 2. Cross…
  22. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 22
    Coal to Gas Switching Leading Demand Push Coal to Gas Switching by Region (Bcf/d) 6.0 5.0 PNW 4.0 SW Rockies 3.0 TX MCP 2.0 Midwest NE 1.0 SE 0.0 www.BentekEnergy.com 22
  23. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 23
    U.S. Demand Forecast to Grow 12.1 Bcf/d from 2011 to 2017 80.0 +1.2 Bcf/d Per Year 77.0 75.0 74.0 75.1 72.3 70.2 70.0 67.2 64.2 64.9 65.0 61.7 61.8 62.1 60.0 58.2 57.6 55.0 +2.0 Bcf/d Per Year 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0…
  24. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 24
    NYMEX Forward Curve Expectations 7.00 6.50 Forward Curve August 10, 2011 6.00 5.50 5.00 /MMBtu 4.50 Forward Curve August 10, 2012 4.00 3.50 3.00 BENTEK Forecast August 2012 2.50 2.00 1.50 www.BentekEnergy.com 24
  25. Wells fargo enercom's oil and gas conference 17 – Bentek Energy – slide 25
    Conclusions and Takeaways Production to slow then resume growth as higher oil and liquid prices, uncompleted wells, technological and efficiency gains allow E&Ps to respond to market conditions. Demand push will temper storage…

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