Insights from EIA Analyses of Climate Change Policy Options CBO Directors Conference Modeling Climate Change Policy Emissions Reductions: Technology, Coverage, and Costs Howard Gruenspecht Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy…
US GHG Emissions in 2005 (million metric tons of CO2-equivalent) Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide 5,901.1 (82.6%) HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 160.1 (2.2%) Nitrous Oxide 366.6 (5.1%) Methane Other Carbon Dioxide 611.9 (8.6%) 104.9…
Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector AEO2007 Reference Case Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric Power 4,000 History Projection 3,500 3,000 Million Metric Tons 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000…
Policy to Reduce GHGs Could Significantly Affect the Energy Outlook EIA Reference Case projections are generally based on existing laws and policies. In several recent reports, EIA has examined the energy implications of alternative…
Impact of a CO2 Value on Fossil Fuel Prices Impact of 10 per ton Impact of 50 per ton Delivered Price CO2 value CO2 value CO2 content Fuel (2005, all sectors, per million Btu per million Btu) percent percent Coal 0.094 1.57 0.94…
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions: EIA Analysis of S.280 (million metric tons) Electric Power Transportation Industrial 10,000 Residential Commercial 9,000 2005 2020 2030 8,000 298 393 7,000 270 395 1,250 6,000 230 271 368 1,114…
2030 Regional Electricity Price Impacts: EIA S.280 Analysis 16 Reference S.280 Core 14 cents per kilowatt-hour 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 C N CA AR P P NY NE PA RC FL P s AP AA xa…
Capacity Additions by Type to 2030 (gigawatts) Coal Coal with Sequestration Gas and Oil Renewable Nuclear 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Reference S 280 Core No Nuclear Emission reduction CHANGES THE MIX of capacity…
100 Fuel Cost For Current Coal and CC Gas w/ Carbon Value 80 per megawatt-hour Existing CC w/ 8 gas 60 Existing CC w/ 6 gas 40 20 Existing Pulverized Coal 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Carbon Value ( / ton CO2) 160 Total…
Energy Security and GHG Emission Reduction: some synergies (S), some conflicts (C) (S) Improved vehicle efficiency: lowers GHG emissions and oil demand/imports (=more energy security) (S/C) Biomass: should it back out coal used in…
The State of Energy Technology Matters With lower cost and earlier availability of advanced energy technology, it is both easier and cheaper to reach any given GHG emissions target. Advanced technology lowers baseline GHG emissions and…
Economic Impacts of GHG Reduction: small % changes = big Given the overall size and expected growth of the U.S. economy, small changes in growth rates of consumption or output translate into large absolute dollar changes. The same…
The Devil is in the Details Efforts to hide costs or pick winners (or prevent particular technologies from coming to market) can affect the realized costs of mitigation Experience with the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act…
Additional Observations All long-run energy projections are highly uncertain. Differences between scenarios and general trends are more important than specific model results. Distributional effects as well as overall impacts…
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