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2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA

EIA · Apr 11, 2006 · 19 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 1
    Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook Guy Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference April 11, 2006 Washington, DC
  2. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 2
    Several Key Factors Drive the Short-Term Fuels Forecast 1) Rising world oil consumption; 2) Low global surplus production capacity and tight crude oil supply relative to demand; 3) Supply concerns in international oil markets (such…
  3. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 3
    World Oil Consumption Growth Slowed in 2005; Projected to Increase in 2006-2007 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Million 1.5 Barrels Rest of World per Day 1.0 US 0.5 China 0.0 1991- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -0.5 1999…
  4. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 4
    Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projected to Reach 0.8 million bbl/d in 2006 and 1.5 million bbl/d in 2007 2005 2006 2007 World Liquids Production 2006 1 Non- OPEC 0.8 OPEC 34 0.6 51.1 Million 0.4 barrels per day 0.2 Hurricane…
  5. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 5
    Large Demand Growth and Low Non-OPEC Supply Growth Create Tight Market Conditions 4.0 3.5 Demand Forecast MMBD Change from previous year Non-OPEC* 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Demand growth exceeds -0.5 non-OPEC…
  6. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 6
    2005 World Oil Spare Production Capacity Reached Lowest Level in 30 Years 6.0 Forecast 5.0 4.0 Million Barrels 3.0 per Day 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1997 Average Source:…
  7. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 7
    West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Projected to Peak in mid-2006, then Gradually Decline. 100 Forecast 90 80 70 Dollars 60 per 50 barrel 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Source: EIA,…
  8. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 8
    Several Factors Are Driving 2006 U.S. Summer (April September) Outlook for Motor Fuels 1) High crude oil costs (up 13 percent from 2005 - summer to summer); 2) Increased gasoline demand growth (up 1.5 percent from 2005 summer to…
  9. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 9
    Projected Increases in Personal Income and Miles Traveled Drive Up U.S. Gasoline Demand 25% Forecast 20% 15% Motor Gas Percent 10% Demand Change 5% 0% -5% -10% 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 Real Personal Income Real Fuel…
  10. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 10
    Motor Gasoline and Distillate Stocks Projected to Remain Within 5-year Min/Max Range 260 Forecast Total Motor Gasoline Inventory 220 180 Million Barrels Total Distillate Fuel Inventory 140 100 60 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04…
  11. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 11
    Days of Supply of OECD* Commercial Oil Stocks Decline Gradually Through 2007 60 Forecast 58 56 Days 54 of Supply 52 50 48 46 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 * Organization for Economic Cooperation…
  12. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 12
    U.S. Motor Gasoline Market Faces New Challenges This Year 1) Final stage of the phase-in of EPAs Tier 2 gasoline program, which began in 2004: Not expected to create significant problems for domestic refining and distribution;…
  13. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 13
    Current and Projected Ethanol Production Will Replace MTBE 0.5 Forecast 0.4 Million 0.3 barrels Ethanol per day 0.2 0.1 MTBE 0.0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy…
  14. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 14
    Gasoline and Blending Components Imports Projected to Average 9.9% of Summer Demand 1.50 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Forecast 1.25 1.00 Million barrels per day 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06…
  15. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 15
    Refinery Utilization Rates Projected to Average About 94%, up from 92% Last Summer 100% Forecast 95% 90% 85% Hurricanes Katrina and Rita 80% Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Utilization Rate =…
  16. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 16
    Summer Retail Gasoline Prices* Projected to Average 2.62 per Gallon, 25 cents More than Last Summer 3.50 2005 2006 Avg. 2.37 Avg. 2.62 3.00 2.50 2004 2003 Avg. 1.90 Dollars Avg. 1.56 per 2.00 Gallon 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00…
  17. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 17
    Regular Gasoline Summer Prices Vary by Region U.S. Average = 2.37 U.S. Average = 2.62 3.00 2.84 2.61 2.62 2.56 2.57 2.52 2.50 2.38 2.32 2.37 2.28 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2005 2006 (Forecast) East Coast Midwest…
  18. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 18
    Summer Retail Diesel Prices Projected to Average 2.62 per gallon, up 21 cents from Last Summer 3.50 2005 2006 Avg. 2.41 Avg. 2.62 3.00 2004 2.50 Avg. 1.77 2003 Cents 2.00 Avg. 1.47 per Gallon 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00…
  19. 2006 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 19
    Summary High world oil demand, sparked by robust economic growth, is continuing to keep crude oil prices high and increase competition for gasoline imports. Crude prices (WTI) are expected to remain above 60 per- barrel for the…

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