Outlook for Energy Markets Guy Caruso, Administrator Energy Information Administration FY 2006 Defense Economics Conference September 21, 2006 Alexandria, VA
Major Events and World Oil Prices 1970-2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Strike U.S. Gulf Coast dollars per barrel Strong Demand Growth 80 Saudis abandon swing producerOperation Desert Venezuela Unrest role 60 Storm Iran-Iraq…
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (dollars per barrel) 100 90 History Projections 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2006
World Oil Surplus Production Capacity (million barrels per day) 6.0 History Projections 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1997 Average Short-Term Energy Outlook,…
World Oil Consumption Growth (million barrels per day) 3.0 History Projections 88 86 2.5 84 2.0 Rest of World 82 United States Oil Demand 1.5 80 World Oil Growth Demand 1.0 78 76 0.5 China 74 0.0 72 -0.5 70 1991- 2000…
Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks 60 History Projections 58 Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 56 54 52 50 48 46 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2006
World Oil Supply Growth (million barrels per day, change from previous year) 1 World Liquids Production 2006 0.8 OPEC Non- Crude 0.6 30 OPEC 2007 55 2006 0.4 2005 Hurricane, Alaska recovery 0.2 Prudhoe Bay losses 0…
U.S. Petroleum Products Consumption Growth (thousand barrels per day) 1,000 History Projections 800 600 2.0% 400 200 0.0% -0.4% 0 -200 -400 2005 2006 2007 Total Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel Distillate Fuel Other…
U.S. Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) 1.20 History Projections 6.0 1.00 5.0 0.80 4.0 0.60 3.0 0.40 2.0 0.20 1.0 0.00 0.0 -0.20 -1.0 -0.40 -2.0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Total Change (left axis)…
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices (cents per gallon) 330 History Projections 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 WTI Crude Wholesale Gasoline Retail Regular…
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption Growth 12% 90 10% 80 History Projections 8% 70 6% 60 4% 50 2% 40 0% 30 -2% 20 -4% 10 -6% 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Percent Change (left axis) Billion Cubic Feet per Day (right…
U.S. Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet) 16 14 History Projections 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2006
World Oil Prices,1980-2030 (2004 dollars per barrel) 100 History Projections High Price 80 60 Reference 40 Low Price 20 0 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 International Energy Outlook 2006
World Energy Consumption, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 450 413 400 OECD 350 309 300 Non-OECD 294 270 250 234 200 186 150 100 50 0 2003 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe and…
World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 300 History Projections 250 33% Oil 27% 200 38% 26% Coal 150 Share of 24% World Natural Gas 100 Total 24% Renewables 9% 50 8% 5% 6% Nuclear 0 1980 1985…
World Oil Consumption, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (million barrels per day) 70 60 58 60 OECD 54 50 49 Non-OECD 45 40 32 30 20 10 0 2003 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Non-OECD…
World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2006 (billion barrels) Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait UAE Venezuela Russia Libya Nigeria United States China Qatar Mexico Algeria Brazil World Total = Kazakhstan…
World Unconventional Liquids Production, 2005 and 2030 (million barrels per day) 4 3.6 2005 3 2030 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 1.7 1.0 1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0 Oil Sands Ultra Gas to Coal to Biofuels Shale Oil Heavy Liquids…
World Natural Gas Consumption, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 120 108 100 OECD 80 Non-OECD 74 72 63 60 50 45 40 20 0 2003 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Non-OECD…
World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2006, and Cumulative Consumption, 2003-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Middle East Reserves Cumulative Consumption, 2003-2030 Russia Africa Asia World Natural Gas Reserves = 6,112…
U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 5 History Projections 4 Overseas LNG 3 Canada 2 1 0 Mexico -1 1990 1995 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 International Energy Outlook 2006
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2006, February 2006 International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006 Examples of Special Analyses Economic…
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