The Energy Outlook Presentation to International Minerals Association North America LEnfant Plaza Hotel Washington, DC April 29, 2009 Howard Gruenspecht Acting Administrator, Energy Information Administration…
The Short-Term Outlook through 2010 Industrial Minerals Association - North America, H. Gruenspecht
Crude oil prices are expected to average 53 per barrel for all of 2009 and 63 per barrel in 2010. West Texas Intermediate crude oil averaged 100 per barrel in 2008; however, the global economic slowdown has reduced the price this…
World oil consumption is expected to decline in both 2008 and 2009 due to economic conditions. EIA expects world oil consumption to decline by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2009 and then grow by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2010, as…
The United States, Brazil, and former Soviet Union countries are expected to lead non-OPEC liquids supply growth. Non-OPEC supply is projected to be flat in 2009, then grow by 260,000 barrels per day in 2010. cumulative oil…
OPEC crude oil production expected to decline in 2009, then increase in 2010 in response to rising world oil demand. Estimated OPEC production declined by 1.1 million barrels per day in the 4th quarter of 2008 and by an additional 2.1…
World surplus production capacity is expected to be much higher in 2009 and 2010 than it was in 2008. The lack of surplus production capacity was a crucial factor in the run-up in world crude oil prices in 2008. Global surplus…
The Long-Term Outlook through 2030 Industrial Minerals Association - North America, H. Gruenspecht
Liquid fuels continue to dominate primary energy consumption in the United States. quadrillion Btu 125 History Projections 100 Renewables Biofuels Liquid Fuels 75 50 Natural Gas Nuclear 25 Coal 0 1980 1985 1990…
Petroleum-based liquids consumption is projected to be flat as biofuels use grows million barrels per day 25 History Projections Biofuels 20 15 Transportation 10 5 Industrial Electric Power Residential and…
The renewable fuel standard mandate for 2022 is met in 2027. billion renewable fuel standard credits 40 EISA2007 Mandate Other Feedstocks Biomass-to-Liquids RFS with Adjustment 30 Biodiesel Imports Cellulose-Based Ethanol 20…
Biofuels displace some conventional fuels in the transportation energy mix. million barrels per day 10 Biofuel Content 8 Motor Gasoline 6 Biofuel Content 4 Diesel 2 0 2007 2015 2030 Industrial Minerals Association…
Net Import Share of U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption, 1990-2030 percent 70 History Projections 60 Low Price 50 Reference 40 High Price 30 20 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Industrial Minerals…
Natural gas price rises as more expensive sources are tapped. 2007 dollars per thousand cubic feet 10.00 History Projections Henry Hub Spot Market 7.50 Lower 48 Wellhead 5.00 2.50 0.00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015…
Net U.S. imports of natural gas decline in the projections. trillion cubic feet 30 History Projections 25 20 15 Non-associated offshore Unconventional Associated-dissolved Alaska 10 Net imports 5 Non-associated…
Electricity prices moderate in the near term, but then rise gradually with increasing fuel prices. 2007 cents per kilowatthour 12 History Projections High Growth 10 Low Growth 8 Reference 6 4 2 0 1970 1980 1990…
Coal remains the predominant fuel for electricity generation. billion kilowatthours 3,000 History Projections 2,000 Coal Natural Gas 1,000 Nuclear Renewables Petroleum 0 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 Industrial…
Growth in carbon dioxide emissions slows in the projections. million metric tons 3,500 Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions 6,000 3,000 6,414 5,991 4,000 4,735 2,500 2,000 2,000 0 1980 2007 2030 1,500 Petroleum Natural 1,000…
Some Very Recent Analyses Industrial Minerals Association - North America, H. Gruenspecht
The recently enacted American Recovery and Reinvestment Act lowers energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. million metric tons 6500 Without ARRA 6000 Updated Reference with ARRA 5500 An Updated Annual Energy Outlook…
Recent EIA analysis suggests that a 25-percent Renewable Electricity Standard would raise electricity prices between 2020 and 2030. 5%change from reference case percent 4% without credits for State efficiency programs 3%…
Periodic Reports from EIA Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2009, March 2009 International Energy Outlook 2009, May 2009 Examples of EIA Special Analyses…