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LDC Gas Forum – EIA

EIA · Sep 15, 2009 · 24 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 1
    The Outlook for Natural Gas Use in Electricity Generation: Climate Policy and Other Drivers for LDC Gas Forum Chicago, IL Howard Gruenspecht Deputy Administrator Energy Information Administration (howard.gruenspechteia.doe.gov)…
  2. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 2
    Roadmap for Discussion 1. PAST SUPPLY MIX AND PROJECTED DEMAND AND SUPPLY TRENDS WITHOUT CLIMATE POLICY 2. KEY FACTORS AFFECTING CAPACITY CHOICES Capital Costs and Fuel Costs Climate Policy (and/or expectations thereof) 3. CLIMATE…
  3. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 3
    Coal continued to dominate the U.S. generation mix in 2008 3% 6% Coal 20% Oil & Other Natural Gas 49% Nuclear Hydroelectric Other Renewable 21% 1% 3 LDC Gas Forum, H. Gruenspecht, 9/15/2009
  4. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 4
    Historically, U.S. generating capacity additions were dominated by coal and nuclear, then natural gas Significant amounts of coal and nuclear capacity, which have relatively low operating costs, were added in the 1980s. Large amounts…
  5. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 5
    Coal Capacity and Generation 400 2200 2000 billon kilowatt-hours gigawatts (capacity) 350 1800 300 1600 Utilization Rate 1400 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 59.2 62.7 71.2 73.3 72.8 1200 200 1000 1990 1995 2000 2005…
  6. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 6
    Nuclear Capacity and Generation 120 900 800 billion kilowatt-hours 100 700 gigawatts 80 600 Utilization Rate 500 60 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 66.1 77.3 87.9 89.3 91.5 400 40 300 1990 1995 2000 2005 Increases in…
  7. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 7
    Gas-fired Capacity and Generation 450 1000 400 900 billion kilowatt-hours Utilization Rate 350 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 800 gigawatts 300 30.2 32.4 31.2 22.7 25.2 700 250 600 200 500 150 400 100 300 1990 1995 2000…
  8. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 8
    Electricity demand growth continues to slow Electricity demand growth has slowed over time. However, electricity demand is still expected to grow more than 22 percent above the 2007 level by 2030. 3-year rolling average percent…
  9. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 9
    EIAs AEO2009 Outlook: Even without a new climate policy, the generation fuel mix shifts towards lower carbon options billion kilowatthours 6,000 History Projections Oil & Other 5,000 4,000 Renewable Nuclear 3,000 Natural Gas…
  10. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 10
    Nonhydropower renewable sources meet 44 percent of total generation growth between 2007 and 2030 billion kilowatthours 500 History Projections 450 Solar 400 Geothermal 350 Waste 300 Wind 250 200 150 100 Biomass 50 0…
  11. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 11
    The import share of natural gas supply is projected to decline sharply as domestic supply grows trillion cubic feet 30 History Projections 25 Consumption 2% Net Imports 20 16% Domestic supply 15 10 1990 1995 2000…
  12. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 12
    Growth in energy-related CO2 emissions slows with slowing growth in energy use and a shift to less carbon-intensive fuels million metric tons 7,000 History Projections 6,500 6,000 5,500 Updated AEO2009 reference case 5,000…
  13. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 13
    3 Competitive Arenas and 4 Key Factors Driving Capacity Choices 13 LDC Gas Forum, H. Gruenspecht, 9/15/2009
  14. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 14
    Three Competitive Arenas Vs. Vs. Vs. 14 LDC Gas Forum, H. Gruenspecht, 9/15/2009
  15. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 15
    Capital Costs of New Plants: New vs. Old/New IHS-CERA Power Capital Cost Index (PCCI) AEO 2005 AEO 2008 AEO 2009 With and Without Nuclear 250 3,500 Q3 2007: 233 Q1 2008: 231 3,000 230 2,500 210 Q1 2007: 2,000 194 190…
  16. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 16
    Fuel Costs Affect All Areas of Competition dollars per million Btu 10 History Forecast 8 6 4 2 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Coal Natural Gas Natural gas prices rose dramatically between 1999 and…
  17. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 17
    Placing a value on CO2 raises the cost of using all fossil fuels, with coal most heavily affected. CO2 Impact of 10 per Impact of 50 per Delivered Price ton CO2 value ton CO2 value content Fuel (2007, all sectors, per million per…
  18. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 18
    Climate Policy Impact on Operating Costs: OLD vs. OLD Fuel Cost For Existing Coal and Combined Cycle Natural Gas Units 2007 dollars per megawatthour With a Value Placed on CO2 Emissions 200 150 at 13 Natural Gas CC 100 at 7…
  19. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 19
    Climate Policy Impact on Levelized Cost: NEW vs.OLD/ NEW Levelized Costs for New Plants in 2025 With a Value Placed on CO 2 Emissions 240 2007 dollars per megawatthour 210 z ed Coal eri 180 Pulv C Coal IGC 150 ral Ga s CC…
  20. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 20
    What is the impact of climate change policy on the use of natural gas for electricity generation What is the implicit value of carbon What are the emissions targets To what extent are offsets allowed or used Cost, timing, and public…
  21. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 21
    Demand is also uncertain EIAs reference electricity demand projection is sensitive to: the projected rate of economic growth and its mix: faster growth and more growth in energy-intensive sectors would raise demand the pace of…
  22. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 22
    Impacts of the ACES Act (H.R. 2454) on Gas-fired Generation: Results from Recent EIA Analysis billion kilowatthours Major emissions reductions in electricity generation require EXISTING coal capacity to be retired in favor of NEW…
  23. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 23
    Summing Up The rate of demand growth, fuel costs, capital costs, and climate change policies are key drivers of electricity mix decisions. KEY FUEL COST ISSUE: The natural gas supply and demand balance, regionally and globally. KEY…
  24. LDC Gas Forum – EIA – slide 24
    Periodic Reports from EIA Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2009, March 2009 International Energy Outlook 2009, May 2009 Examples of Special Analyses from…

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