Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Reference Case AEO2013 Early Release Rollout Presentation Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies Johns Hopkins University December 5, 2012 Washington, D.C. by Adam…
Key results from the AEO2013 Reference case: Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth Crude oil production, particularly from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade Natural gas production is higher…
What is included (and excluded) in developing EIAs Reference case projections Generally assumes current laws and regulations excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation is not included)…
Growth in energy production outstrips growth in consumption leading to reduction in net imports U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 2035 Consumption 9% 10% 19% Net imports…
Domestic production grows rapidly over projection period, particularly natural gas and renewables, and liquids in the near term U.S. energy production quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. production History 2011 Projections…
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and a slow and extended economic recovery U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History 2000 2011…
U.S. energy use is slowed by rising energy prices and the adoption of new efficiency standards for vehicles U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History 2011 Projections 11% Industrial:…
Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines Energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1 History 2005 2011 Projections Energy use per capita Energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP Carbon…
In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level Carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2005 2011 Projections AEO2013 2005 2020 2040 (billion metric tons) 6.00 5.45…
Petroleum and other liquid supply Adam Sieminski 10 AEO2013, December 5, 2012
Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil 2011 dollars per barrel History 2011 Projections High Oil Price…
Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable Global liquids supply million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 44% OPEC 40% Other non-OECD 31% 34% OECD 25% 26% Source:…
U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2005 2011 Projections 2035 Consumption 37% 37% 60% 45% Net imports Domestic supply Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook…
U.S. import share of liquid fuels declines due to increased production of tight oil and gas liquids, and greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 2011 Projections Biofuels excluding imports…
U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections Tight oil Other lower 48…
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day AEO2012 AEO2013 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early…
Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines Transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 22% Diesel 29% CNG/LNG 11% 4% 4% 2% Jet fuel 13% E85 Other 1% 4% Pipeline fuel 3% 60%…
Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and slower growth in E85 sales Renewable fuel standard credits billions ethanol-equivalent gallons Legislated RFS in 2022 Biodiesel Net imports RFS with Other Advanced…
Natural gas Adam Sieminski 19 AEO2013, December 5, 2012
Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Energy prices to the electric power sector 2011 dollars per Btu 2011 History 2011…
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections Consumption Domestic supply Net…
Shale gas production leads growth in production through 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections Shale gas Non-associated offshore Tight gas Alaska Coalbed methane Associated with…
Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet Exports to Mexico Exports to Canada Lower 48 LNG exports Alaska LNG exports Source: EIA,…
Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease…
Industrial natural gas usage grows, especially before 2025 Industrial natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski 25 AEO2013, December 5, 2012
Electricity Adam Sieminski 26 AEO2013, December 5, 2012
Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040 Period Annual Growth U.S. electricity use 1950s 9.8 percent growth (3-year rolling average) 1960s 7.3 History 2011 1970s 4.7 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4…
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 1993 History 2011 Projections 30% Natural gas…
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040 Non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2011 Projections Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible) Wind Biomass…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
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