EIA Projections of Renewable Energy Costs Forum on the Economic Impact Analysis of NJs Proposed 20% RPS Chris Namovicz February 22, 2005
Background EIA provides independent analysis and forecasting of domestic energy markets Annual Energy Outlook provides baseline forecast assuming current policy and regulation EIA also performs analyses of national energy policy as…
Wind Power Wind currently costs around 1100/kW Minimal cost decline expected in mid-term Consistent with observed cost trends over past 5-10 years Performance ranges from 32% (Class 4) to 42% (Class 6) Performance expected to…
Wind Resources MAAC is resource limited Less than 1,000 MW of resource, Class 4 or better Anecdotal evidence that PJM projects are already utilizing Class 3 resources Implies that much of…
Offshore wind EIA does not model offshore wind Costs are highly uncertain in both directions Current European experience represents pilot/early commercialization, presumably with significant learning possible On the other hand,…
Cost Biomass 250 Approx. 1700/kW Cost reductions can Energy Crops borrow from allied 200 technologies (coal IGCC, gas CC) Agricultural Residue 150 8911 Btu/kWh Resources Forestry Residue 100 Approx. 250 trillion Btu/yr in…
Landfill Gas Cost Site specific Approx. 1400/kW (conventional generators) Resources Very limited Approx. 425 MW in MAAC
Solar (PV) Cost 6,000/kW for commercial building installation (25 kW system) 8,200/kW for residential installation (2kW) Large potential for cost reduction With significant cost reduction and Federal tax incentives, could achieve…
New Fossil Capacity NGCC High fuel cost (4.25-5.50/mmBtu forecasted) Low capital cost (approx. 520/kW) 6350 Btu/kWh Coal (conventional and IGCC) Low fuel cost (1.25-1.30/mmBtu forecasted) High capital cost (approx. 1250-1300/kW)…
Questions Contact: Chris Namovicz 202-658-7120 cnamoviczeia.doe.gov www.eia.doe.gov (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html (Forecasting and Analysis)
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