Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets Guy Caruso, Administrator Energy Information Administration Energy & Transportation Panel Meetings Ford Motor Company March 9, 2006 Dearborn, MI
Energy Issues to Consider.... Is the current level of world crude oil prices sustainable Can unconventional liquids make a meaningful contribution to supply What are the implications of higher world oil prices for net petroleum…
EIA Has Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection Major oil producing countries pace investment more consistent with higher oil price path Investment impediments more persistent, even after several years of relatively high oil…
World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2004 dollars per barrel) 80 History Projections 60 40 20 History AEO2005 AEO2006 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 150 History Projections 125 100 Coal 75 Natural Gas 50 Petroleum 25 Nuclear Renewables 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy…
U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 45 2004 History 40 AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 35 AEO2006 - 2030 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Residential Commercial Industrial…
U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Real Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1) 1.2 History Projections 1.0 per dollar real GDP 0.8 per capita 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020…
U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (millions of barrels per day) 30 27.9 27.6 26.1 Electric Power 25 23.0 22.2 Industrial 20.8 Residential and 20 Commercial 15 10 Transportation 5 0…
U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid and Diesel Vehicles, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (thousand units) 2,000 2004 History AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 1,500 AEO2006 - 2030 1,000 500 0 Hybrids* Diesel *Only includes hybrids that…
U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (miles per gallon) 35 2004 History AEO2005 - 2025 30 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030 25 20 15 10 5 0 New Car New Light-Duty Truck New Light-Duty Vehicle…
U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections 25 20 62% Consumption Net Imports 15 58% 10 Domestic Supply 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020…
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30.7 30 27.0 26.9 25.4 25 23.4 22.4 Electric Power 20 15 Industrial 10 Commercial 5 Residential Transportation 0 2004 AEO2005…
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30 History Projections 25 Consumption Net Imports 21% 15% 20 Production 15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (trillion…
Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 28 26 Growth in Alaskan Production 24 Growth in LNG Imports 22 Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional 20 18 Base Production (all…
U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 5 History Projections 4 Liquefied Natural Gas 3 2 Canada 1 0 Mexico -1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006
U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030 (2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 8 History Projections 7 6 5 4 3 History AEO2005 2 AEO2006 1 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and…
U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (million short tons) 2,000 1,784 1,592 1,508 1,500 1,229 1,233 1,104 1,000 Electric Power 500 Coal to Liquids 0 Other 2004 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2005…
U.S. Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2030 (2004 dollars per ton) History Projections 50 History 40 AEO2005 AEO2006 30 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
U.S. Electricity Sales by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 6,000 5,220 5,341 4,956 Transportation 5,000 Industrial 4,070 3,978 4,000 3,567 Commercial 3,000 2,000 1,000 Residential 0 2004…
U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, including Combined Heat and Power, 2004-2030 (gigawatts) 1,400 New Nuclear 1,200 New Renewable New Coal Needed Capacity 1,000 New Natural Gas Existing Other Fossil Steam 800 Existing…
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 4,000 2004 History 57 - percent of total AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 3,000 50 53 AEO2006 - 2030 50 2,000 24 20 17 1,000 20 14 16 15 18…
Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector, 1980-2030 (million tons) Nitrogen Oxide Sulfur Dioxide 10 20 History AEO2005 AEO2006 8 16 6 12 4 8 2 4 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 2030 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 2030…
U.S. Electricity Price, 1970-2030 (2004 cents per kilowatthour) History Projections 10 8 6 History AEO2005 AEO2006 4 2 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030 (million metric tons) 8,115 in 2030 9,000 History Projections History 8,062 in 2025 8,000 AEO2005 AEO2006 6,627 in 2010 7,000 7,587 in 2025 6,000 6,365 in 2010 5,000…
Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case indicates that through 2030.... U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to increase at an average…
World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 800 History Projections 708 700 High Economic Growth 645 600 586 500 Reference Low Economic 400 Growth 300 200 100 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000…
World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 350 300 History Projections 46% 42% 250 Mature Market 200 Economies Share of World 150 Emerging Total Economies 100 12% 50 Transitional Economies…
World Energy Intensity by Region, 1970-2025 (thousand Btu per thousand dollars of GDP) 25 History Projections 20 15 Transitional Economies Mature Market 10 Economies 5 Emerging Economies 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990…
World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 300 History Projections 250 38% 200 Share of Natural Gas 25% World Oil 24% 150 Total Coal 100 Renewables 50 8% 5% Nuclear 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990…
Share of World Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, 2002 and 2025 (percent) Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables 100% 7 9 5 90% 7 2 8 80% 17 18 32 70% 60% 25 51 50% 18 40% 30% 41 20% 40 10% 20 0% 2002 2025 2002…
World Oil Consumption and Production, 2004, 2020, and 2030 (million barrels per day) Consumption Production Mature Market Economies OPEC 140 Emerging Economies Transitional Economies Transitional Economies Other 117.8 117.8 120…
World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (trillion cubic feet) 100 History Projections Mature Market Economies 80 Transitional Economies Emerging Economies 60 40 20 0 1980 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025…
World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2006, and Cumulative Consumption, 2002-2025 (trillion cubic feet) Middle East Transitional Reserves Economies Cumulative Consumption, 2002-2025 Africa Emerging Asia North…
World Electricity Consumption per Capita by Country Group, 2002 and 2025 (kilowatthours per person per year) India Africa Other Emerging Asia 2002 China Central & South America 2025 Mexico Middle East Eastern Europe Formet…
World Shares of Energy Use for Electricity Generation, 2002-2025 (percent) 2002 History Projections 2010 2015 2020 2025 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables International Energy Annual 2003…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2006, February 2006 International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005 Examples of Special Analyses Economic…
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