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Energy Symposium – EIA

EIA · Mar 5, 2013 · 39 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 1
    Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. for Energy Symposium, University of Oklahoma, Price College Energy Institute March 05, 2013 Norman, OK by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy…
  2. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 2
    EIAs mission and main functions Independent Statistical and Analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking,…
  3. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 3
    Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040 Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy…
  4. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 4
    U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and slow, extended economic recovery U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History 2000 2011 Projections 120…
  5. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 5
    U.S. Shale Gas Adam Sieminski , Energy Symposium, March 05, 2013 5
  6. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 6
    These three drivers impact resource estimation metrics differently over time in an iterative process Theory Experiment Practice Thermal maturity Pressure Formation depth Geology Recompletions Drilling costs Technology Price of gas…
  7. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 7
    EIAs focus is on the timing of production; the modeling focuses on these parameters average initial production (IP) rate per well average decline curve (can vary by region and vintage) IP & decline curve define the Estimated…
  8. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 8
    Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect new information, a combination of assessments and EIA updates U.S. dry gas resources Benchmark to USGS trillion cubic feet 2011 Marcellus 3000 Assessment Unproved shale gas…
  9. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 9
    U.S. wet natural gas proved reserves, 1980-2010 trillion cubic feet 350 300 250 200 U.S. Total 150 Lower 48 Onshore 100 Federal Offshore 50 Alaska 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source:…
  10. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 10
    EIA fits well production data to hyperbolic decline curves to estimate EUR Classic hyperbolic decline curve 2004 vertical well EUR=0.46 bcf (Arps 1945): 2011 horizontal well 1985 vertical EUR=1.76 bcf well EUR=1.41 bcf…
  11. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 11
    An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays can also have steep decline curves, which require continued drilling to grow production million cubic feet per year 2,000 Cumulative production = EUR Haynesville 100%…
  12. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 12
    For example: Oil production by monthly vintage of wells in the Williston Basin Source: DrillingInfo history through August 2012, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 forecast Adam Sieminski , Energy Symposium, March 05, 2013…
  13. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 13
    Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day 30 Rest of US 25 Marcellus Haynesville 20 Eagle Ford Bakken 15 Woodford Fayetteville 10 Barnett…
  14. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 14
    Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Shale gas 20 15 Non-associated offshore Tight gas 10 Alaska Coalbed methane…
  15. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 15
    Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 *Includes combined heat-and-power and…
  16. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 16
    Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel) marine and rail to come U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 3.0 2.5 28% 2.0 Gas to liquids 1.5…
  17. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 17
    Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet 6 5 4 Exports to Mexico 3 Exports to Canada 2 Lower 48 LNG exports 1 Alaska LNG exports 0…
  18. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 18
    Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Consumption 20 Domestic supply 15 10…
  19. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 19
    U.S. Tight Oil Adam Sieminski , Energy Symposium, March 05, 2013 19
  20. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 20
    Multiple factors have contributed to U.S. crude oil resource estimate increases over the years, with tight oil contributing recently U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas billion barrels 250 Unproved Alaska…
  21. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 21
    U.S. crude oil plus condensate proved reserves, 1980-2010 billion barrels 35 30 U.S. Total 25 20 Lower 48 Onshore 15 10 Alaska 5 Federal Offshore 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: U.S. Energy…
  22. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 22
    Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day 2.0 Eagle Ford 1.8 Bakken 1.6 Granite Wash 1.4 Bonespring 1.2 Monterey 1.0 Woodford…
  23. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 23
    U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 8 STEO Feb. 2013 U.S. crude oil…
  24. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 24
    U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 2011 million barrels per day 4 3 net product 2 exporter exports 1 0 -1 net…
  25. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 25
    U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2005 2011 Projections 25 20 Consumption 15 37% 60% 45% Net imports 10 Domestic supply 5 0…
  26. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 26
    Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day 10 AEO2012 8 AEO2013 6 4 2 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035…
  27. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 27
    Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil 2011 dollars per barrel History 2011 Projections 250 High Oil Price…
  28. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 28
    Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable Global liquids supply million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 120 100 44% OPEC 80 40% 60 Other non-OECD 31% 40 34% 20 OECD…
  29. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 29
    Global tight oil production comparisons IEO2013 DRAFT BP Energy Outlook 2030 12 million barrels per day 10 Australia China Russia Argentina 8 Mexico Canada United States 6 4 2 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source:…
  30. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 30
    Uncertainties that could slow global growth of shale gas and tight oil Resource quantities and distribution Surface vs. mineral rights Risk appetite of industry participants Infrastructure and technology Environmental…
  31. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 31
    Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2012 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 2012 Reference Case 15 Carbon Fee 25 Carbon Fee 5 5 5 2010 4 4 4 24% Natural gas…
  32. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 32
    Coal and Electricity Adam Sieminski , Energy Symposium, March 05, 2013 32
  33. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 33
    Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040 Period Annual Growth U.S. electricity use 1950s 9.8 percent growth (3-year rolling average) 1960s 7.3 History 2011 1970s 4.7 1980s 2.9 14 1990s 2.4 12…
  34. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 34
    Over time the electricity mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables, but coal remains the largest fuel source U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 1993 History 2011 Projections 6 5 30% Natural gas 4 25%…
  35. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 35
    Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Energy prices to the electric power sector 2011 dollars per Btu 2011 8 10 History 2011…
  36. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 36
    Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040 non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2011 Projections 600 Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible) 500 400 Wind…
  37. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 37
    Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per- capita energy use also declines energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1 History 2005 2011 Projections 2.0 1.5 1.0 Energy use per capita Energy use per 2005 dollar…
  38. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 38
    In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2005 2011 Projections 7 6 AEO2013 5 4 3 2005 2020 2040 (billion metric…
  39. Energy Symposium – EIA – slide 39
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…

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