EIA Drilling Productivity Report For Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University October 29, 2013 New York, NY By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis…
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources shale and tight oil production dry shale gas production million barrels per day billion cubic feet per day 2.8 35 Eagle…
Key insights on drilling productivity and production trends Higher drilling efficiency and new well productivity, rather than an increase in the rig count, have been the main drivers of recent production growth In the six plays…
A little drilling history Adam Sieminski, EIA Drilling Productivity Report October 29, 2013 4
Rig counts and natural gas production appeared to be coupled during 2006 and 2007 U.S. natural gas production rig count billion cubic feet 3,000 3,000 gas production natural gas rotary rigs 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500…
Before 2006, changes in natural gas rig counts did not suggest subsequent changes in production U.S. natural gas production rig count billion cubic feet 3,000 3,000 gas production natural gas rotary rigs 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000…
Gas-directed rig counts no longer serve as a useful metric for natural gas production levels U.S. natural gas production rig count billion cubic feet 3,000 3,000 gas production natural gas rotary rigs 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,500…
Rig counts, either gas-directed or total, no longer serve as a useful metric for natural gas production levels oil and natural gas rig count and natural gas production U.S. rig count billion cubic feet per day 2,500 90 natural gas…
Rig counts, either oil-directed or total, are no longer an adequate indicator for oil production, which has continued to rise in 2013 despite a leveling of rig counts U.S. crude oil production rig count million barrels per day 3000 8…
Oil and natural gas are increasingly developed from the same wells share of new wells by type of hydrocarbons produced 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% oil 50% 56% gas 40% both 30% 37% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
In 2011 and 2012, more than half of all new wells produced both oil and natural gas count of new wells by production type 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 oil gas 30,000 both 20,000 10,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
Natural gas producers adapt their formation in line with market value Eagle Ford new well gas/oil production ratio natural gas price Mcf/bbl dollars per million Btu 40 14 35 12 production ratio Mcf/bbl (left axis) 30 10 25 8…
EIAs Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) uses a series of new metrics to assess the production and depletion trends of oil and natural gas wells Rig count Well classification Drilling efficiency Productivity of new wells…
Drilling efficiency can be used to relate the number of rigs to production from new wells Eagle Ford drilling efficiency Eagle Ford wells per rig per month first full months production per well Bbl/day Mcf/day 1.4 400 2400 1.2 350…
Six key plays account for nearly all recent growth in production Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report Adam Sieminski, EIA Drilling Productivity Report October 29, 2013 15
DPR methodology Monthly additions from one average rig Represents EIAs estimate of an average rigs contribution to production of oil and natural gas from new wells New-well oil/gas production per rig Represents historical…
Rigs needed to sustain production in the Eagle Ford play Eagle Ford rigs needed to sustain prior months production 300 rig count 250 estimated rigs needed - oil estimated rigs needed - natural gas 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-07…
Rigs needed to sustain production in the Bakken play Bakken rigs needed to sustain prior months production 300 rig count 250 estimated rigs needed - oil estimated rigs needed - natural gas 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09…
DPR fills in missing data due to lags in state reporting oil production in 6 key plays million barrels per day 5 4 3 Data Data and DPR Estimates 2 DPR Forecast 1 0 Jan-12 Jan-13 May-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Source: EIA…
Backup slides Adam Sieminski, EIA Drilling Productivity Report October 29, 2013 20
DPR Bakken page Adam Sieminski, EIA Drilling Productivity Report October 29, 2013 21
DPR methodology: step 1 monthly additions from one rig Bakken Marcellus October 2013 drilling data through September, projected production through November Monthly additions from one average rig: Monthly additions from one…
DPR methodology: step 2 rig counts and production per rig New-well oil/gas production per rig: The charts present historical estimated monthly additions from one average rig coupled with the number of total drilling rigs reported by…
DPR methodology: step 3 legacy production decline Monthly additions from one average rig: The charts present EIAs estimates of total oil and gas production changes from all the wells other than the new wells. The trend is dominated…
DPR methodology: step 4 production change Monthly additions from one average rig: The charts present the combined effects of new-well production and changes to legacy production. Total new-well production is offset by the anticipated…
DPR methodology: step 5 total production Oil/gas production: These charts present oil and natural gas production from both new and legacy wells since 2007. This production is based on all wells reported to the state oil and gas…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Drilling Productivity Report http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo…
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