International energy markets For Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business July 29, 2015 Beijing, China by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent…
Mandate: EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment…
EIA principles Provide relevant energy statistics and analysis as a public good Be accurate and objective Protect the confidentiality of respondents Maintain the public trust International energy markets July 29, 2015 3
EIA information is used by a range of stakeholders Examples of Activities Government EIA Customers Executive Agencies WH, DOE, & EPA use EIA data to track Media Government energy markets and program performance and to analyze 2% 9%…
The importance of China in the global energy markets International energy markets July 29, 2015 5
By 2040, Chinas energy use will be double the U.S. level; Indias a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 200 China 150 United States…
Net oil imports: Trends in the largest consuming countries million barrels per day (MMb/d) 10 History Forecast 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 China net imports 2 U.S. net imports 1 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: EIA,…
Current oil and gas markets International energy markets July 29, 2015 8
For oil prices, the market-implied confidence band is very wide WTI price dollars per barrel 150 125 100 75 Historical Spot Price 50 STEO Forecast NYMEX Futures Price 25 Current 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval June…
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources U.S. tight oil production U.S. dry shale gas production million barrels of oil per day billion cubic feet per day Eagle…
Production growth in top crude producing regions (Permian, Bakken, Niobrara, and Eagle Ford) reverses in early 2015 monthly percent change three month rolling average 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Jan 2012 Jan 2013…
Oil supply and demand begin to rebalance in 2016 million barrels per day (MMb/d) MMb/d 98 6 Implied stock change and balance (right axis) 96 World production (left axis) 5 94 World consumption (left axis) 4 92 3 90 2 88 1 86 0 84…
Surprises in liquid fuel demand to the upside are rare world liquid fuels consumption annual change million barrels per day (MMb/d) million barrels per day 96 8 Change in U.S. consumption (right axis) Forecast 94 Change in China…
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity remains moderate to low million barrels per day (MMb/d) 6 Forecast Note: Shaded area represents 2004-2014 average (2.2 MMb/d) 5 4 3 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010…
OECD commercial petroleum stocks remain high days of supply 70 Forecast Note: Shaded area represents the range between the minimum 65 and maximum from Jan 2010 to Dec 2014 60 55 50 45 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013…
Long-term U.S. energy projections International energy markets July 29, 2015 16
Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 120 2025 2040 Renewables (excluding liquid…
U.S. crude oil production: Supply rises above previous historical highs before 2020 in all AEO2015 cases, with a range of longer-term outcomes dependent on prices, resources and technology U.S. crude oil production million barrels per…
U.S. natural gas trade: Projected U.S. natural gas trade reflects the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices, along with resource outcomes U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet billion…
U.S. energy trade Net exporter of petroleum products since 2010 Crude oil export policy debate underway Net exporter of natural gas by 2017 Net exports of coal are small and steady Net imports of electricity are small Source:…
Long-term international outlook International energy markets July 29, 2015 21
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 28% 27% 200 liquids 23% 34% coal (including biofuels) share of…
Non-OPEC petroleum and other liquids production million barrels per day (MMb/d) 70 60 rest of non-OECD 50 Brazil 40 China 30 Russia rest of OECD 20 Canada 10 United States 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040…
World natural gas production trillion cubic feet 200 180 rest of non-OECD 160 140 China 120 MENA 100 80 Russia 60 rest of OECD 40 Canada 20 United States 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: The MENA region consists…
World coal production billion short tons 14 12 world total 10 other non-OECD Asia 8 Australia India United States 6 4 China 2 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: Indonesia accounted for 72 percent of the total coal…
World net hydropower and other renewable electricity generation trillion killowatthours 12 10 rest of non-OECD 8 India Brazil 6 China 4 rest of OECD 2 Canada United States 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source:…
World net nuclear electricity generation trillion killowatthours 6 5 China 4 rest of world India 3 Russia OECD Europe 2 other Asia 1 Japan United States 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, International…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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