International Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030 Guy F. Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Washington, DC June 25, 2008
International Energy Outlook 2008 - Summary Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 50% between 2005 and 2030. The developing non-OECD countries grow by 84%. World oil prices remain relatively high through 2030.…
World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD 450 History Projections 409 400 350 Non-OECD Quadrillion Btu 286 300 241 250 OECD 200 221 150 100 50 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA,…
Average Annual GDP and Population Growth for Selected Regions, 2005-2030 7.5 6.5 GDP Population 5.5 Percent per Year 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 ca ia a il st ia n es e a z n pa p re…
World Oil Prices in the Reference Case, IEO2008 vs. IEO2007 120 113 95 90 Nominal Dollars per Barrel IEO2008 IEO2007 60 30 History Projections 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: EIA, IEO2007 and…
World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 250 History Projections 33% Liquids 29% 200 37% Quadrillion Btu Natural Gas Coal 24% 150 27% Share of World 100 Total 23% Renewables 8% 50 8% 6% Nuclear 6% 0 1990 1995 2000…
World Liquids Consumption by Region Percent Change 2005-2030 2030 2005 North America 25 11% 28 Non-OECD Asia 15 31 102% OECD Europe 16 16 3% OECD Asia 9 9 7% C/S America 6 42% 8 Middle East 6 10 62% Non-OECD…
Motor Vehicle Ownership by Selected Region 350 300 2005 2030 250 Million Vehicles 200 150 100 50 0 United OECD Japan Canada South Russia China India Brazil States Europe Korea Source: EIA, IEO2008
World Liquids Production, 1990-2030 120 113 Total Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 100 80 60 55 Non-OPEC (Conventional) 48 40 OPEC (Conventional) 20 Unconventional 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020…
Non-OPEC Producing Regions With More than a One Million Barrel Per Day Increase in Total Production Over the Forecast Period, 2005 and 2030 16 Million BarrelsOil Equivalent per Day 14 13.5 2005 12 2030 9.8 9.5 10 8.2 8.2…
OPEC Conventional Liquids Production Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 35 31.5 30 2005 25 23.8 2030 20 15 10 5.8 6.7 5 3.8 3.9 2.7 2.9 1.1 0.9 0 Asia Persian North West South Gulf Africa Africa America Source:…
Worldwide Unconventional Production, 2005 and 2030 4.5 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 4.2 4 2005 2030 3.5 3 2.7 2.5 2 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 Oil Sands Ultra Gas to Coal to…
Nominal World Oil Prices in Three Price Cases 200 Reference Case 186 180 Low Price Case High Price Case 160 Nominal Dollars per Barrel 140 120 113 100 80 69 60 40 20 History Projections 0 1980 1990 2000 2010…
World Liquids Consumption in Three Price Cases, 2030 150 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 122 118 120 113 99 90 60 30 0 IEO2007 Low Price Reference High Price Case Case Case IEO2008 Source: EIA, IEO2008
World Liquids Consumption in Three Price Cases, 2030 60 57.6 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 53.2 48.5 Low Price Reference Case High Price 40 32.2 29.2 25.8 22.3 20.6 20 16.3 10.0 9.5 8.7 0 OECD China and…
World Liquids Supply in Three Price Cases, 2030 150 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day 120 5.0 10.5 Unconventional 9.7 90 58.4 19.0 53.1 Non-OPEC Conventional 55.1 60 47.5 30 54.1 OPEC 58.6 47.7 Conventional 32.8…
World Natural Gas Production Central and South America Non-OECD Asia 160 Africa Middle East 140 Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia OECD Trillion Cubic Feet 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA,…
World Coal Consumption, 1990-2030 250 India China 200 United States Rest of World Quadrillion Btu 150 100 50 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA, IEO2008
World Electric Power Generation by Region 25 History Projections 20 19.7 Non-OECD Trllion Kilowatthours 15 13.5 9.9 OECD 10 5 7.5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA,…
World Electric Power Generation by Fuel 35 Coal Natural Gas 30 Renewables Trillion Kilowatthours Nuclear 25 Liquids 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA, IEO2008
Nuclear Capacity by Region 114 North America 134 133 OECD Europe 118 64 OECD Asia 88 15 Non-OECD Asia 83 2005 2030 Non-OECD 43 Europe/Eurasia 66 5 Other Non-OECD 8 0 50 100 150 Gigawatts Source: EIA, IEO2008
Major Trends in the IEO2008 Outlook Total world energy use is 50% higher in 2030 compared to 2005. Sustained high world oil prices dampens demand in the out years of the projections; liquids demand is 4% lower in 2030 than in last…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008, full report, June 2008 International Energy Outlook 2008, June 2008 Examples of…