The Impact of Petroleum Technology Advances on Long-Term Energy Markets Guy Caruso, Administrator Energy Information Administration 3rd OPEC International Seminar September 12 13, 2006 Vienna, Austria
Highlights Technological advances affect all sectors of the energy market and all regions of the world The competitive, global petroleum industry promotes worldwide technology transfer Technological advances support economic…
The Past is Prologue Past technological advances have affected energy supply, demand, and production costs Past supply-side technology advances: Coal mining Oil and natural gas production Electric generation Past end-use…
U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Well Success Rates, 1970-2005 (successful percentage of total wells drilled) 100 Development Wells 75 50 Exploratory Wells 25 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Annual Energy Review…
Mean Estimate of Ultimately Recoverable U.S. Crude Oil, Year-End 1979 and 2004 (billion barrels) 400 300 200 100 0 1979 2004 Cumulative Production Reserves Unproved Resources U.S. Geological Survey, Minerals…
Mean Estimate of Ultimately Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas, Year-End 1979 and 2004 (trillion cubic feet) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1979 2004 Cumulative Production Reserves Unproved Resources U.S. Geological Survey,…
Forms of Technological Progress New materials New types of equipment New knowledge New management techniques
Why Technological Progress Is Difficult to Identify and Measure Most technological progress is incremental. Small incremental improvements result in large advances over time. Technological progress is often intangible, for…
World Oil Prices, 1980-2030 (2004 dollars per barrel) 100 History Projections High Price 80 60 Reference 40 Low Price 20 0 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006
U.S. Crude Oil Production and Net Petroleum Imports, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day) 20 History Projections 18 Reference 16 Slow Technology 14 Rapid Technology 12 10 8 Rapid Technology 6 4 Slow Technology 2…
U.S. Total Petroleum Production, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day) 12 History Projections High Price 10 Reference 8 Low Price 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006
U.S. Unconventional Oil Production, 2030 (million barrels per day) 2.5 59.7 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Low Price Reference High Price Liquids from Gas Liquids from Coal Synthetic Crude from Oil Shale Annual Energy Outlook 2006
World Unconventional Liquids Production, 2005 and 2030 (million barrels per day) 4 3.6 2005 3 2030 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 1.7 1.0 1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0 Oil Sands Ultra Gas to Coal to Biofuels Shale Oil Heavy Liquids…
U.S. Lower-48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 1990-2030 (2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 8 History Projections Reference 5.92 Slow Technology 6 6.36 Rapid Technology 4 5.20 2 0 1990 2000 2004 2010 2020 2030…
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Net Imports, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 25 History Projections Rapid Technology Reference 20 Slow Technology Natural Gas Net Imports in 2030 15 6 (trillion cubic feet) 5 4 2004 3 10 2…
U.S. Lower-48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 1990-2030 (2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 8 7.71 History Projections High Price 5.92 6 Reference 4 4.97 Low Price 2 0 1990 2000 2004 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy…
U.S. Net Imports of Liquefied Natural Gas, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 8 History Projections 6 Low Price 4 Reference 2 High Price 0 1990 2000 2004 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Sales of Advanced Technology Light-Duty Vehicles, 2015 and 2030 (thousand vehicles sold) 2,500 Hybrids Alcohol 2,000 Turbo Direct Injection Diesel Gaseous Electric 1,500 Fuel Cell 1,000 500 0 2015 2030 Annual…
U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy, 1980-2030 (miles per gallon) 35 History Projections Rapid Technology 30 Reference 25 Slow Technology 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006
U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 35 History Projections 30 Reference 25 Slow Technology 20 Rapid Technology 15 10 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Change in Residential Energy Intensity in Three Cases, 2004-2030 (million Btu per household) 5 2005 Technology Reference 0 High Technology -5 -10 Best Available Technology -15 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030 (million metric tons) 8,115 in 2030 9,000 History Projections 8,832 8,000 Slow Technology Reference 7,000 5,919 7,421 6,000 Rapid Technology 5,000 4,000 3,000…
Technological Progress: The Look Ahead Identifying specific breakthroughs is impossible, but advances are likely Many of the technology improvements involve the use of existing technologies in more efficient ways Major…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2006, February 2006 International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006 Examples of Special Analyses Economic…
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