U.S. Energy Market Outlook for United States Association for Energy Economics November 7, 2012 Austin, TX by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
New York City metropolitan area gas station availability percent of gas stations 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2-Nov 3-Nov 4-Nov 5-Nov power but no inventories inventories but no power no response gas stations available Source:…
Electric customer outages and restoration times from Hurricane Sandy Hurricane Sandy Power Outages million customers DE 9 ME 8 RI NH 7 Hurricane Irene total VA outages 6 MD MA 5 OH 4 WV 3 CT PA 2 NY 1 NJ Other 0…
Four basic principles: Better, faster, cheaper Best practices Faster delivery More good people Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012 4
Recent changes in the heating oil market Adam Sieminski 5 November 7, 2012
Heating fuel market shares vary regionally Number of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region, winter 2012-13 Midwest Northeast West natural gas electricity heating oil propane wood kerosene/other/no heating DC…
The U.S. winter 2012-13 heating season forecast is about 2% warmer than the 30-year average, but 18% colder than last winter U.S. current population-weighted heating degree-days 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Oct Nov Dec…
Expenditures are expected to increase this winter (October 1 March 31) for all fossil fuels Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Base case If 10% warmer If 10% colder Fuel bill forecast than forecast than forecast…
Heating oil remains much more expensive than natural gas U.S. average residential winter heating fuel prices dollars per million Btu 30 history forecast natural gas heating oil 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004-05 2005-06…
Key issues in the domestic fuel market Adam Sieminski 10 November 7, 2012
Lower 48 oil and gas shale plays and federal lands Source: U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior s National Atlas of the United States Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012 11
Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years shale gas production (dry) tight oil production for select plays billion cubic feet per day million barrels of oil per day 30 1.6 Rest of…
U.S. becomes a net natural gas exporter in 2022 U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet History 2010 Projections 30 Net exports, 2035 5% Net imports, 2010 25 11% Consumption 20 Domestic production 15 1990 1995 2000…
Bakken production on federal, non-federal and BIA lands Source: EIA Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012 14
U.S. leads the league table for non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth over the next two years change in production from previous year million barrels per day 1.4 1.2 2012 2013 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6…
U.S. dependence on imported petroleum declines moves even lower in various side case scenarios U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2005 2010 Projections 25 Net 20 imports, Consumption 2035 High TRR/ Net…
Estimated unplanned production disruptions among non-OPEC producers, through October 2012 thousand barrels per day 1400 1200 Yemen United States 1000 Syria Sudan/S. Sudan 800 North Sea 600 Mexico Colombia 400 China Canada 200…
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity million barrels per day 6 forecast 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2001-2011 average Surplus Capacity Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook,…
EIA updates state level datasets with mapping features and energy infrastructure datasets Interactive map links to state level energy data Source: EIA Adam Sieminski 19 November 7, 2012
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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